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Property sales in Auckland, New Zealand, see steep fall at end of 2015
Property prices in Auckland, New Zealand, remained stable last month but there was a significant fall in the number of sales compared to those in November and a year ago. The average sales price for December at $869,492, down 0.8% on November's record average price while the median price rose to an all-time high of $800,000, up 0.6% on that for November, according to data from Barfoot and Thompson ‘From a price perspective, the market was rock steady but sales data for the final month of 2015 is sending mixed messages as to where the market will head in 2016,’ said Peter Thompson, the firm’s managing director. The data reveals that sales for the month at 796 were 19.3% lower than in November, and it was the lowest number of sales in a December for four years. December's sales were also the lowest in any month for the past 22 months. While in December new listings at 757 were down 555 on those in November, Thompson explained that this level of decline is quite normal and they were the highest in a December for four years. ‘The factor most likely to impact on January sales was the extremely low number of listings at the end of December which, at 2431, was down 25.2% on those in November, and the lowest number for any month for more than 20 years,’ he said. ‘With a growing population and the number of new builds failing to keep pace with demand, competition for properties is likely to remain strong in the first quarter of 2016. January's sales data is always influenced by the summer holiday period, and it is likely to be the middle of March, when February's sales data is available, that a clearer understanding of prospects for 2016 emerge,’ he pointed out. ‘What is clear, however, is that with so few properties on the market, now is an excellent time to list,’ he added. The figures also show that in December some 278 properties sold for in excess of $1 million and a further 202 for in excess of $750,000. Sales of properties in the under $500,000 price category at 44 made up 5.5% of all sales. In 2015, the average sale price of homes for the full year was $817,096, an increase of 14% on that for 2014 and 25.8% over 2013's average sales price. The median price for 2015 was $755,333, some 17.4% higher than 2014's median price and 30.5% higher than that for 2013. Continue reading
UK house market showed no end of year let up as prices rose 1.7%
House prices in the UK increased by 1.7% in December, showing none of the traditional end of year slowdown, the latest index figures show, prices now set to keep rising in 2016. The data from UK lender the Halifax, also shows that year on year prices have risen by 9.5% and were up 1.6% quarter on quarter, taking the average price to £208,286. However, the quarterly rate of change remained below 2% for the second successive month and was at its lowest values during 2015. But the annual rate of change remained in the 8% to 10% range throughout the year. The Halifax report also points out that the monthly house price pattern seen during the second half of 2015 has fluctuated and the quarter on quarter change is a more reliable indicator of the underlying trend. Newham in London recorded the biggest rise in house prices among major UK towns and cities over the past year, according to separate recent research by the Halifax. The average house price in the London borough was 22% higher than in the previous year and nearly double the 12% increase in London as a whole. Those areas that have seen the biggest house price increases over the past year are either in outer London or within close commuting distance of the capital. ‘There remains, however, a substantial gap between demand and supply with the latest figures showing a further decline in the number of properties available for sale,’ said Martin Ellis, Halifax housing economist. ‘This situation is unlikely to change significantly in the short-term, resulting in continuing upward pressure on prices,’ he added. According to Rob Weaver, director of Investments at property crowdfunding platform Property Partner, the fact that house price growth was 1.7% in the traditionally quiet month of December underlines the upward pressure on prices caused by the supply and demand imbalance. ‘With such extreme supply side issues, prices look set to move in only one direction throughout 2016. December may well have set a precedent for the year ahead. There will naturally be regional variations throughout the year but overall the trajectory of the UK property market will be upwards,’ he said. ‘As ever, London and the South East are likely to outperform due to the exaggerated supply issue and overall demographic in that corner of the country. The significant house price growth seen in Newham reinforces how the balance of power in the capital has moved from the centre to the peripheries, where gentrification, regeneration and infrastructure improvements are driving price rises,’ he explained. Jonathan Hopper, managing director of Garrington Property Finders, said that overall 2015 ended much as it began with demand outstripping supply in many areas and the resulting tension driving up prices. But he also pointed out that the start of 2015 was hampered by caution as some sectors of the market paused to see what would happened with the general election, for example, but there are no such… Continue reading
Buy to let landlords in UK well placed to cope with an interest rate rise
Buy to let landlords in the UK are financially resilient and are well placed to cope with expected higher borrowing costs, according to a new survey. Asked how they would deal with a 1.5% rise in Bank rate, three quarters foresaw no problems in paying their mortgage, says the data from the YouGov survey. More than 60% said their rental income would remain higher than their mortgage payments, and 40% said they already had enough money to cover higher borrowing costs. Meanwhile, according to data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) lenders have increased the average rate at which they stress test buy to let mortgages and after a strong first quarter, the CML expects buy to let purchases to decline in 2016 but buy to let remortgaging to remain robust. According to the transactional data collected by the CML from lenders accounting for about 90% of new lending, the typical stressed mortgage rate being used by the industry has increased by 50 basis points to between 5.6% and 5.7% over the past year. According to Bob Pannell, CML chief economist, while this is still some way from the rates implied for lending to home owners, a more forced pace of adjustment would risk destabilising the buy to let sector. He also pointed out that landlords identify a range of strategies for coping with higher mortgage costs, including the positive cash flow that rental payments currently provide and ready access to contingency funds. But he also pointed out that a number of tax measures have been announced in recent months, and these are likely to have a dampening effect on future growth prospects for buy to let and the private rented sector. ‘The reduction of tax reliefs available to private landlords from 2017/2018 onwards, announced by the chancellor in the summer 2015 Budget, will adversely affect the future cash flows for affected landlords,’ said Pannell. ‘Landlords should be able to mitigate the direct financial impact in a number of ways. Indeed, the YouGov research corroborates our view that the overall impact will be to lift rents higher and to narrow the availability of homes in the private rented sector,’ he explained. ‘The direct effects appear modest, but are likely to be reinforced by the stamp duty changes, announced in the chancellor’s autumn statement. The rapid succession of recent tax changes also risks having a significant indirect effect on investor sentiment, altering the direction of travel for buy to let lending and the further expansion of the private rented sector,’ he added. The CML’s latest market forecasts envisage house purchase activity by buy to let landlords falling away over 2016 and 2017. Given the significant lags in government housing initiatives stimulating additional housing supply, this raises a question about the future availability of rental accommodation in the face of ongoing demographic pressures. ‘In this context, macro-prudential intervention, if or when it is applied to buy to let lending, carries a significant risk of unintended consequences… Continue reading
