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Institutional investors being priced out of London market, index suggests
Yield compression, foreign investment and a lack of supply have led to institutional investors being priced out of the London market, according to the latest IPD UK Annual Residential Property Index. The UK as a whole saw a total return of 13.5% in 2014, putting extra strain on investors hoping to enter the market, particularly in London. The strongest districts for overall returns were to be found outside of prime central London, with returns in inner London and outer London the highest in the UK, driven largely by capital growth. The Index results show that the net yield in central London has fallen to 1.8%, its lowest level since the start of the index, and the first time that the figure has fallen below 2%. Across the UK the net income yield has fallen to 2.4% across all residential market lets. ‘If you invested in London residential at some point during the last 10 years, the chances are that you’re laughing all the way to the bank,’ said Mark Weedon, vice president and head of alternatives at MSCI. ‘However, if you are looking to put money into the sector now, our data shows that investors seeking income will find themselves’ priced out by foreign investors and owner occupiers when trying to buy existing stock in London,’ he explained. ‘There is now a de facto exclusion loan on central London for most institutional investors, at a time when concern over access to housing has seldom been higher,’ he added. Inner London delivered total returns of 24.4% in 2014 with a comparatively small rise in rental values of 3.1%, while outer London saw returns rise to 21.1% and rental growth of 3%. Central London (zone 1) returns slipped to 9.8% from 14.7% in 2013, while rents also increased by 4.8% in this area. Outside of the capital, the South West and Midlands performed the strongest, returning 9.7%. Northern England and Scotland also saw an improvement in returns to 3.5%, the first time returns have entered positive territory in those areas since 2007. This area also experienced a rise in rental growth from 1.5% to 2.4%, the only region outside of London to see this. Comparatively, commercial real estate returned 17.8% in 2014 according to the IPD UK Annual Property Index. Bonds and equities returned 11.8% and 0.5% respectively. ‘It is clear that market forces not related to the underlying rent generating capability of residential property are affecting values and that this is pricing large investors seeking long term stable income out of the London market,’ said Weedon. ‘It is no surprise that investors are now considering building to let which will enable them to achieve a decent percentage income return in areas of high employment and strong owner occupier demand,’ he added. The IPD UK Annual Residential Property Index is based upon properties let on modern residential leases, primarily assured short hold tenancies, the index now has 14 years of historical data. The index… Continue reading
First time buyers lending in Scotland up 23% last year
Lending for homes in Scotland fell in the final quarter of 2014 but there were more mortgages going to first time buyers compared to the same period the year before. The latest data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders shows that overall lending was up 23% last year but mortgages fell at the end of the year. Scotland accounted for 6.6% of UK wide annual house purchase activity, down from 6.9% in 2013. Lenders advanced 27,700 loans to first time buyers in Scotland totaling £2.9 billion, 16% up in volume compared to 2013, and 23% up in value. A breakdown of the figures show that there were 7,000 first time buyer loans in Scotland, worth £750m. This was down compared to the third quarter 5% by value and 4% by volume. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2013, the number of loans increased by 3% and the amount borrowed by 9%. There were 8,000 loans to home movers, valued at, £1.2 billion, down 8% in volume and down 9% in value compared to the third quarter. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2013, there was a decrease of 8% in volume and a decrease of 5% in value. The total number of remortgage loans declined in the fourth quarter to 5,700 loans at £650 million, which was down 3% in volume but unchanged in value on the third quarter. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2013, activity was down 17% in volume and 13% in value. First time buyer affordability changed slightly in Scotland quarter on quarter with first time buyers typically borrowing 2.90 times their gross income, less than the 2.94 income multiple in the third quarter and less than the UK average of 3.38. The typical loan size for first time buyers was £97,200 in the fourth quarter, down from £98,600 in the previous quarter. The typical gross income of a first time buyer household was £33,965 compared to £33,520 in the third quarter. The relatively low level of interest rates saw first time buyers' payment burden remaining relatively low in the third quarter at 16.8% of gross income being spent to cover capital and interest payments, higher than the third quarter's 17.3%. Home mover affordability changed fractionally, with home movers typically borrowing 2.64 times their gross income compared 2.62 in the third quarter and to 3.03 for the UK overall. The typical loan size for home movers was £128,244 in fourth quarter, down from £130,000 in the previous quarter. The typical gross household income of a home mover was £50,773 in fourth quarter compared to £50,971 in the third quarter. Home movers' payment burden remained relatively low in Scotland at 16.5% of gross income being spent to cover monthly capital and interest payments, less than the 16.9% in the third quarter and considerably less than the 18.4% UK average. Overall for 2014, remortgage lending in Scotland was 23,400 loans reflecting a value of £2.6 billion. This was 14% down in volume compared to 2013,… Continue reading
Property prices in Australia up 0.3% in February
Property prices in Australian capital cities increased by 0.3% in February, taking the annual rise in values to 8.3%, the latest index data shows. Sydney again recorded the largest increase at 13.7% year on year followed by Melbourne at 7.4% and Brisbane at 5.9%, according to the CoreLogic RP Index. In contrast, dwelling values have increased by less than 4% in every other capital city over the year. The data also shows that since the beginning of the growth cycle in June 2012, dwelling values have moved 22.6% higher across the combined capital cities. According to Tim Lawless, head of research, this demonstrates the heat emanating from the Sydney market with values up 34.8% cumulatively over the cycle to date across Australia’s largest capital city. Lawless pointed out the latest month on month results show a moderation in the rate of dwelling value growth compared with the December and January figures. The monthly rate of growth slowed from 1.3% in January and 0.9% in December, however the growth trend remains strong, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. ‘The slower rate of capital gain in February may come as a surprise to some who were expecting lower mortgage rates to instantly propel the pace of home value growth higher. We are already seeing the effect of lower mortgage rates, with auction clearance rates surging to the highest levels we have seen since 2009 and valuation activity reaching new record highs based on daily averages over the second half of February,’ said Lawless. ‘Despite the flurry of activity, it will likely take some time to see this flow through to a higher rate of capital gain. We might not see the lower interest rate environment stimulate the housing market as much as it has in the past,’ he explained. ‘Weaker jobs growth, higher unemployment, declining affordability, low rental yields and political uncertainty are all factors that could dent consumer confidence and provide some counter balance to the rate cuts and quell any additional market exuberance,’ he added. The report also says that there is evidence of compressed rental yields continuing across each of the capital city markets. A year ago the gross rental yield for a capital city dwelling was averaging 4.3% but by the end of February the typical gross yield has been eroded down to just 3.7%, due largely to the consistent high rate of dwelling value growth relative to rental growth. According to Lawless, over the current growth cycle to date, capital city dwelling values have risen at more than three times the pace of weekly rents. ‘The bi-product of such strong capital gains and relatively weak rental growth is that rental yields are being forced lower and lower,’ he said. In Melbourne, the yield profile is the lowest of any capital city with the typical Melbourne dwelling showing a gross yield of just 3.3%. Sydney isn’t far behind with a gross dwelling yield of 3.6%. However, Lawless noted that if Sydney dwelling values… Continue reading
