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UK referendum on European Union membership set to hit real estate markets
The forthcoming UK referendum on the country’s future in the European Union poses risks for the re sector due to the uncertainty it is creating, according to a new analysis report. This uncertainty leading up to the vote on 23 June is likely to have a somewhat paralysing effect on investor decisions on real estate purchases, says the report from Standard and Poor’s. It also says that should the country decide in favour of leaving the EU, known as Brexit, then the uncertainty will be prolonged during the subsequent exit negotiations and this may turn investor sentiment more negative. ‘This could potentially reverse the significant boost to real estate asset values that the UK and London in particular has experienced in recent years. Added to this, financial services firms, already under pressure to contain costs, may find an additional reason to reduce office space in London,’ the report explains. ‘Consequently, we consider the risks to the real estate sector of a Brexit may be most pronounced in the commercial real estate sector, particularly in the office segment, more than in retail and logistics,’ it points out. ‘We also think the effects will be more concentrated in London than other parts of the UK. Within the capital, the City of London would be hardest hit, because of a high concentration of international financial services firms,’ it adds. Given the possible negative consequences of Brexit, Standard and Poor’s said that its ratings on real estate investment companies, home builders, and structured financing in commercial and residential mortgage backed assets will require ongoing monitoring. It suggests that in the next few months ahead of the referendum, the uncertainty regarding the outcome of the vote may slightly disrupt the real estate markets. ‘We think it could lead to some deferrals in deals, timed to close after, rather than before the June 2016 vote. We expect that commercial real estate may be more heavily affected than residential overall, as businesses may delay their investment decisions and investors may put on hold contemplated transactions pending more clarity on the referendum result,’ the report says. ‘In our view, a vote in favour of Brexit would accentuate and prolong this period of paralysis since it would most likely take several years for the terms of the exit to be defined. Since the 2009 downturn, wealthy individuals and institutional investors have considered the UK real estate sector a very safe asset class. These assets attracted sustained investor demand primarily for their value preservation characteristics,’ the report explains further. ‘A vote in favour of a UK exit from the EU in June 2016 would likely threaten that perception of safety, at least for some time. A falling UK currency may also contribute to such a change in perception but would also make real estate in the UK less costly to international investors in foreign currency terms,’ it states. It makes the point that residential real estate would not be immune to a Brexit. ‘The… Continue reading
Prime London lettings market sees growth cool
The London prime rental market is starting to cool after a year of record breaking growth with rents either plateauing or seeing slight growth for a third quarter in a row. The latest data report from Benham & Reeves Residential Lettings reveals that this follows a frenzied 2015 which saw unprecedented growth for the first two quarters before finally slowing as the market paused to absorb the changes. Many parts of prime central London saw rents fall, reflecting a trend which has seen demand increase in the inner suburbs, according to the report. It explains that as demand from wealthy non-nationals wanes in the run up to the referendum in June on the UK’s future in the European Union and currency controls put in place by foreign governments, the demand for luxury property in Belgravia, Knightsbridge, Chelsea and surrounding areas seems to have peaked. However, it is still anticipated that the fall in Sterling's value will make prime central London more attractive over the coming months so this decline is likely to be temporary. Rental growth in the inner suburbs continues as the domestic market gains further confidence. Wandsworth saw strong growth as did most of the trendy parts of east London. There is also demand for rental properties in Notting Hill, Bayswater, Queen's Park and Kensal Rise where larger homes offer comparative value. North London, particularly Colindale, Golders Green and Hampstead Garden Suburb that have seen the most substantial growth. This was widely anticipated as rental growth had been supressed in recent quarters while Crossrail works closed the Northern Line interchange at Tottenham Court Road. With the station now fully open, rental demand in these areas has seen a resurgence, the report points out. ‘This is a much needed pause for breath after such huge gains in rental values. Unfortunately for tenants, this pause may only be temporary,’ said Marc von Grundherr of Benham & Reeves Residential Lettings. ‘With increasing restrictions on buy to let, more amateur landlords will be exiting the market, leading to a drop in supply in the face of a growing population. Over the long term, rents will inevitably go up,’ he added. Continue reading
Homes in national parks and outstanding rural spots still command a price premium
Despite the rise of urban living in the UK, many home buyers are still searching for the ultimate period property in an idyllic green setting, research suggests. In particular, the country’s 15 designated green breathing spaces or National Parks along with 45 smaller Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONBs) often appeal to many. A new analysis from real estate firm Savills of these areas across the country, excluding coastal locations, shows that the average sale price for a detached house within a National Park or AONB is £450,000. This compares with a value of £347,000 for properties in the same county not within the park or AONB and represents a hefty 29.7% premium for buyers seeking their perfect property in these locations. The research report identifies key established prime and emerging prime hotspots throughout the UK and the most expensive areas were found to be in the south of the country. Surrey Hills is the most expensive green location in the prime market while Snowdonia National Park in Wales is the cheapest. The established prime areas are named as Surrey Hills where the average sale prices in 2015 was £963,000, some 82.4% over the rest of the county and up 9% compared to five years ago. Next is the South Downs with an average 2015 sale price of £721,000, some 57.6% above the rest of the county and up 20.1% over five years. Then it is the Cotswolds with an average price of £558,000, some 47% more than the rest of the area and up 9.8% over five years. Emerging prime areas are topped by Cranborne Chase and West Wiltshire Downs with an average sale price of £507,000 in 2015, some 26.5% more than the rest of the area and up 10.9% over five years. Next is the Kent Down with an average of £565,000 but this is 4.4% less than the rest of the country although average prices are up 8.4% over five years. Then is High Weald with a 2015 sales price average of £570,000, some 7% above the rest of the area and up 5.7% over five years. In the emerging prime market, the Midlands and Wales saw strong growth, with the Lincolnshire Wolds showing an 11.9% increase over a five year period, attracting a premium of 25.8% above county averages. Clwydian Range and Dee Valley in Wales has an average sale price of just £272,000 but this is some 26.2% over the country average and up 9.6% over a five year period. In the North of the country the Howardian Hills, populated with scenic villages and historic houses, maintained a 36.9% premium over the surrounding county. In the Yorkshire Dales the average 2015 sales price at £380,000 is some 27.2% compared with the rest of the country but is down 2.6% over five years. In Scotland in the Cairngorms National Park the average price of £250,000 is some 0.8% below the average and up just… Continue reading
