Investment
Home values in Australian capital cities flat, latest index data shows
Residential property values were flat in capital cities in Australia last month with Sydney, Canberra and Adelaide seeing price falls. The downturn in these cities were offset by values rising across the remaining five capital cities, according to the latest CoreLogic RP Data home value index. The Sydney housing market was the main drag on the December results, with dwelling values down 1.2%, while values were down 1.5% in Adelaide and 1.1% in Canberra. The remaining capitals saw a rise in dwelling values, led by a 2.3% rise in Perth values and a 1% rise in Melbourne over the month. After dwelling values had been broadly rising since June 2012, the December quarter results revealed a 1.4% fall in dwelling values across the combined capitals, the largest quarter on quarter fall since December 2011. Six of the eight capital cities recorded a negative result over the December quarter, with weaker conditions in Sydney and Melbourne acting as the greatest drag on capital city performance, according to CoreLogic RP Data head of research Tim Lawless. The largest quarterly fall was recorded in Sydney, where dwelling values were down 2.3% over the final three months of the year, followed by Melbourne, where dwelling values were 1.9% lower. The only capital cities to show a rise in dwelling values over the December quarter were Brisbane with growth of 1.3% and Adelaide up 0.6%. This was in contrast to the first three quarters of 2015, where capital city dwelling values rose by 9.3%, largely driven by a 14.1% surge in Sydney values and a 13.3% increase in Melbourne. In stark contrast, the final quarter of 2015 showed Sydney as the weakest performer of any capital city, with dwelling values down by 2.3% while Melbourne recorded the second weakest result with a fall of 1.9%. The complete 2015 calendar year results reveal a 7.8% increase in capital city dwelling values which is the lowest rate of capital gain over a calendar year since 2012 when values slipped 0.4% lower over the full year. Highlighting the diversity in the capital city housing markets, dwelling values fell across four of the eight capitals in the 2015 calendar year. The largest of these falls were recorded in Perth, down by 3.7%, and Darwin down by 3.6%. Hobart and Adelaide also showed subtle falls of 0.7% and 0.1%. Despite the recent weakening of housing market conditions in Sydney and Melbourne, the two largest capital city housing markets still recorded much stronger annual gains than all other capital cities, 11.5% in Sydney and 11.2% in Melbourne. Dwelling values in Brisbane and Canberra were up a more sustainable 4.1% over the year. ‘The wealth created from housing in Sydney and Melbourne has been exceptional over the past 12 months. In dollar terms, Sydney home owners have seen approximately $82,000 added to their wealth thanks to the strong capital gains over the year while home owners in Melbourne have seen the value of… Continue reading
UK Mortgage intermediaries set for record lending in 2015
Mortgage intermediaries in the UK are expected to have secured a record breaking share of new mortgages in 2015, according to a new report from the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association (IMLA). Its research into the changing face of mortgage distribution has found that its share of new mortgages by value passed 70% for the first time during the second quarter of 2015 to reach 71%. The third quarter witnessed brokers arranging loans valued at £33.3 billion, the highest quarterly total since the beginning of 2008. As a result, IMLA’s analysis shows brokers were responsible for 69% of new lending by value during the first nine months of this year, up from 61% for the same period in 2014. It puts them firmly on track to surpass the record 66% annual share achieved during 2007. The £85.9 billion of lending intermediaries arranged from the first to the third quarters of 2015 already exceeds the annual totals of 2009 to 2013, and was just 12% short of the 2014 total of £98 billion. The IMLA report examines how mortgage distribution has changed following the deregulation of the market in the 1980s, and looks at how technological advances could change distribution in the future. It attributes the general upward trend in brokers’ market share over the past three decades to several key changes; the widening range of lenders, including the emergence of lenders exclusively using broker distribution; growing complexity of mortgage features and pricing; and most recently regulatory changes including the Mortgage Market Review (MMR). By requiring mortgage sales staff to provide advice rather than just information, with the additional qualifications that requires, the MMR has led many lenders to de-emphasise their branch networks and some smaller lenders to end direct distribution altogether. With increased lender competition, a greater range of products and more would-be borrowers falling into ‘non-standard’ categories, today’s market also leaves brokers well positioned to identify those products that are best suited to a particular customer’s needs. However, IMLA’s analysis also shows brokers’ increased share of activity has not been uniform across the market. Proportionally remortgagers and home movers are using the intermediary channel more than ever, yet the proportion of first time buyers arranging their mortgages directly with their lender increased from 32% to 37% between 2006 and 2014. Despite brokers reclaiming market share this year, the percentage of first time buyers going direct remains higher than it was in 2007 when the intermediary channel was at its strongest. This may be influenced by lenders’ marketing activities to first time buyers. While technological advances have traditionally strengthened direct channels within financial services, the IMLA report observes that this has not happened in mortgage lending where the majority of customers still feel the need to speak to a professional. It suggests this is partly due to the complexity of mortgages as a product, and the sheer number of products available on the market. Furthermore, considerations such as term length and the size of the… Continue reading
Irish property price growth slowing as new lending rules have an impact
Residential property prices in Ireland are continuing to increase year on year but the rate of growth has slowed considerably, the latest official data show Figures from the Central Statistics Office shows that in the year to November prices at a national level increased by 6.5%. This compares with an increase of 7.6% in October and an increase of 16.2% recorded in the 12 months to November 2014. The data also show that prices actually fell on a national level month on month in November by 0.5%. This compares with an increase of 1.6% recorded in October and an increase of 0.5% recorded in November of last year. In Dublin residential property prices decreased by 1.3% in November and were 3.3% higher than a year ago. Dublin house prices decreased by 1.2% in the month and were 3.1% higher compared to a year earlier. Dublin apartment prices were 6.1% higher when compared with the same month of 2014. However, it should be noted that the sub-indices for apartments are based on low volumes of observed transactions and consequently suffer from greater volatility than other series. The price of residential properties in the rest of Ireland rose by 0.2% in November compared with a rise of 1.2% in November of last year. Prices were 9.6% higher than in November 2014. House prices in Dublin are now 33.8% lower than at their highest level in early 2007 while apartments in Dublin are 41% lower than they were in February 2007. Prices in Dublin are 35.8% lower than at their highest level in February 2007. The price of residential properties in the rest of Ireland is 36.2% lower than their highest level in September 2007. Overall, the national index is 33.8% lower than its highest level in 2007. However, experts think that prices will rise by around 6% in 2016 and point out that the decrease in prices in Dublin has more to do with new Central Bank rules on lending than a downturn in the real estate market. ‘Given that the Central Bank’s rules on high loan to value mortgages apply only to first time buyers in homes over €220,000, their impact has been felt most sharply in the capital where affordability is most stretched,’ said Conall MacCoille, an analyst with Davy Research. ‘The recovery outside the capital began almost one year later, so that affordability is less stretched, and there is probably more room for catch-up,’ he explained, adding that the firm expects property prices to rise by some 7% through 2016 as wages grow and tax cuts take hold. Goodbody economist Juliet Tennant also believes that the Central Bank’s new lending restrictions, which limit banks from lending any more than 80% of a mortgage except in the case of first time buyers, have had an effect. ‘Macro prudential rules are continuing to have a dampening impact on the Irish housing market. However, the… Continue reading
