Investment
UK landlords cautious over investment due to buy to let changes
Government policies aimed at cooling the UK’s buy to let market are making landlords cautious about their future investment plans for 2016, increasing pressure on the private rental sector, research shows. Although 68% of landlords surveyed by lettings agency Belvoir had not raised their rent in the last 12 months, some 86% believe that increased purchasing costs for investment properties will inevitably lead to increased rents. The majority of landlords who responded to the survey were investment landlords with one to 10 properties and 93% of these rental properties were located in England. They were asked how changes to stamp duty and taxation were likely to influence their investment plans for the next 12 months and 44% said they will be adopting a cautious approach to further investment. Some 68% of landlords had not increased their rents at all in the last 12 months, and almost half of those surveyed have no plans to increase rents in the next 12 months. However 88% believe that increased purchasing costs for investment properties, due to a rise in stamp duty and lack of buy to let mortgage tax relief, will ultimately lead to increased rents. Landlords are almost equally divided in their views as to whether they think buy to let remains a good investment for new people coming into the market. A total of 46% thought it would still be a good investment and 40% thought it would not, with 14% undecided. When asked what effect on the rental sector the Government’s drive on home ownership will have, the results were varied, with some landlords predicting a slowdown and others predicting minimal effect, as so many people are not in a position to buy their own homes or prefer the freedom of renting. There were also concerns that many landlords would get rid of potentially uneconomic property portfolios, resulting in a shortage of rental property and large rent rises. ‘The majority of landlords named George Osborne’s anti-landlord policies as the single largest challenge that landlords will face in 2016. This is entirely in line with our prediction that increased Government interference in the buy to let market will put a real squeeze on the supply of property in the rental market in 2016 and beyond,’ said Belvoir managing director Dorian Gonsalves. Meanwhile, the firm’s rental index shows that in the fourth quarter of 2015 many of their lettings agents across the country are not reporting a mass exodus of rental properties from the market. Of those that are leaving, many are accidental landlords who are anticipating being hit by the impending loss of mortgage interest relief. Indeed, in many areas, including Wales, there has been increased activity with landlords looking for advice to buy further properties before the stamp duty increase kicks in. In cities such as Cambridge, where the population is increasing, there are… Continue reading
High property land prices in Australian capital cities bringing sales down
There is strong evidence of intensifying supply constraints in the residential land market in Australia, especially in the country’s state capital cities. The number of residential lot sales fell by 2.7% in the third quarter of 2015 while median lot prices rose by 4.2%, according to the report from the Housing Industry Association and real estate analytics company CoreLogic RP Data. The index report explains that the tightening of market conditions was concentrated in the capital cities, where prices increased by 5.4% but the number of lots transacted actually fell by 4.5%. According to Shane Garrett, HIA senior economist, with the Australian population now over 24 million for the first time, the report provides a sobering indictment of how land supply policy is not keeping pace with the housing needs of a growing population. ‘The combination of strong land price growth yet declining transaction volumes are hallmarks of a market constrained by supply bottlenecks. Ineffective land supply policy will limit Australia’s long term growth potential and erode competitiveness by forcing costs up,’ he explained. ‘The key supply side issues like planning delays, efficient infrastructure provision and the mammoth taxation burden on new housing need urgent attention. Otherwise, living standards for Australia’s 24 million residents will never reach their full potential,’ he added. According to CoreLogic RP Data research director Tim Lawless, the number of vacant land sales has been trending lower since reaching a recent peak over the June quarter of 2014, with the median land price continuing to push higher despite lower volumes. ‘Buyer demand across the vacant land market has remained strong, which is why prices are rising on lower sales, however, as land prices rise it is likely block sizes will have to reduce in order to maintain an affordable price point for buyers,’ he said. He pointed out that median lot prices have risen across every capital city over the past 12 months except for Adelaide where they fell by 1%. The tight supply of land across Sydney has seen median land prices rise by the most of any capital city over the past year, up 22.8% compared with a weighted average across the capitals of 10.7% growth. ‘Despite having the most expensive housing and vacant land, Sydney is currently showing the second largest median lot size amongst the capital cities at 537 square metres. Somewhat counterintuitively, the median land area has historically been the smallest in Adelaide, with the September quarter data showing a median lot size of just 375 square metres,’ Lawless said. Continue reading
Home owners in London more confident about house price increases than rest of UK
Households across the UK believe that the value of their home increased this month with people in London more so than the rest of the country, says the latest house price sentiment index. Households in all of the 11 regions covered by the index reported that prices rose in February, led by households in London at 68.1 and the East of England at 62.3. Households in Scotland reported the most modest rate of growth at 51.7 followed by the North East at 53. The data from the Knight Frank/Markit index also shows that households expect house prices to rise over the next 12 months, with the strongest growth expected by households in the South East. However, the rate of growth expected over the next year eased compared to January and while 23.2% of the 1,500 households surveyed said that the value of their home had risen some 4.1% said that prices had fallen. This resulted in a HPSI reading of 59.6, the 35th month in a row that the reading has been above 50. Any figure over 50 indicates that prices are rising, and the higher the figure, the stronger the increase. Any figure below 50 indicates that prices are falling. Indeed, February’s reading was the highest recorded by the index since October 2014, indicating that households perceive that the value of their home rose at its strongest rate since then. However, February’s reading remains well below the peak of 63.2 reached in May 2014, reflecting the easing in average UK house price growth seen since then. The future House Price Sentiment Index (HPSI), which measures what households think will happen to the value of their property over the next year, fell in February to 69.8, from 70.5 in January. While still indicating that households across the UK expect the value of their home to rise over the next 12 months, the future HPSI remains below its peak of 75.1 reached in May 2014. There remains a clear north-south divide in terms of the outlook for house prices, with households in Southern England more confident about future growth over the coming 12 months. Indeed, households in the South East were the most confident that prices will rise at 78.7, followed by Londoners at 77.8 and those in the South West at 74.1. In Scotland, the North East and Wales expectations for future price growth remain positive, but are more subdued at 62, 60.6 and 62.5 respectively and the data also show that those who own their home outright are the most confident that prices will rise over the next year at 75.4, followed by mortgage borrowers at 75.2. ‘The HPSI indicates that house prices are set to continue to tick up modestly in the coming months. The market is being underpinned by the solid economic recovery and ultra-low interest rates which now look as if they will stay put for some time to come,’ said Gráinne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at… Continue reading
