Uk
Easier monetary policy could weaken Brexit effect on UK real estate
The hit to UK real estate sentiment that many experts predict will be sparked by the vote to leave the European Union may be limited by easier monetary policy, it is claimed. While uncertainty in the run up to the referendum had little effect on domestic real estate pricing this year, investment activity slowed but an analysis report suggests that this hasn’t been exclusively caused by Brexit fears but largely reflects greater investor caution as the market reaches the top of the cycle. However, according to Chris Unwin, head of global research at Aviva Investors, the vote to leave suggests there is now little hope of any bounce in sentiment. ‘Indeed, it may be many years until we have clarity on the UK’s constitutional arrangements and trading agreements,’ he said. He pointed out that the financial markets’ reaction to the vote was swift and dramatic with Sterling falling to its lowest against the US dollar in over 30 years and 10 year gilt yields reaching a record low. And, as equities plunged, real estate shares were particularly badly hit. He believes that mounting fears of an economic shock and in the short term, uncertainty as to the UK’s constitutional arrangements and trading agreements, will dampen activity and may trigger a recession by the end of 2016. In the longer term, the economy is likely to be impaired by reduced access to European markets and poorer demographics, weakening the UK’s fiscal position and potentially damaging productivity growth. On top of this calls for a second referendum on an independent Scotland will grow and great further uncertainty. ‘Domestic capital values now look likely to decline moderately over the remainder of the year. It is worth noting, however, that some commentators believe Brexit will hit real estate returns, and the economy, more severely. By contrast, we had expected to see a slight increase in capital values over coming months had the UK voted for the status quo,’ explained Unwin. He expects to see prolonged illiquidity in real estate markets pending renegotiation of international agreements and transaction activity to be low while heightened risk aversion will reflect lower growth expectations and political risk. ‘To compensate, some widening in yields is probable. Secondary assets are likely to be hit even more,’ he added. However, Sterling depreciation could support demand from overseas investors but Unwin pointed out that this needs to be balanced against the UK real estate market’s diminished ‘safe haven’ status along with additional caution in Scotland resulting from pressure for a further independence referendum. Unwin thinks UK occupier markets could be affected significantly less than investment markets. ‘In the short term, a rapid deterioration in the labour market is not expected. Demand for space is not set to fall rapidly,’ he said. ‘If the weakness of sterling is maintained, UK retailers could be hit, particularly those operating on low margins. On the other hand, it may boost prospects for markets dependent on tourist spending, like prime central… Continue reading
Research reveals how student debt is affecting the US housing market
New research suggests that the vast majority of would be first time buyers in the United States believe they can’t afford to buy because of student debt. Some 71% of non-homeowners repaying their student loans on time believe their debt is stymieing their ability to purchase a home, and slightly over half of all borrowers say they expect to be delayed from buying by more than five years. The survey from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and SALT, a consumer literacy programme provided by American Student Assistant, also revealed that student debt postponed four in 10 borrowers from moving out of a family member's household after graduating college. Nearly three-quarters of non-homeowners polled in the survey believe their student loan debt is delaying them from buying a home. Broken down by each generation and debt amount, the percent share is the highest among older millennials approximately aged 26 to 35 at 79% and those with $70,000 to $100,000 in total debt. Regardless of the outright amount of student debt, more than half of non-homeowners in each generation report that it's postponing their ability to buy. The survey, which only polled student debt holders current in their repayment, yielded responses from borrowers with varying amounts of debt from mostly a four year public or private college. Some 43% of those polled had between $10,001 and $40,000 in student debt, while 38% had $50,000 or more. The most common debt amount was $20,000 to $30,000. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said that the survey findings bring to light the magnitude student debt is having on the housing market and the budget of even those financially able to make on-time payments. He pointed out that while obtaining a college degree increases the likelihood of stable employment and earning enough to buy a home, many graduating with this debt are putting home ownership on the backburner in part because of the multiple years it takes to pay off their student loans at an interest rate that's oftentimes nearly double current mortgage rates. ‘A majority of non-home owners in the survey earning over $50,000 a year, which is above the median US qualifying income needed to buy a single family home, reported that student debt is hurting their ability to save for a down payment,’ he said. ‘Along with rent, a car payment and other large monthly expenses that can squeeze a household's budget, paying a few hundred dollars every month on a student loan equates to thousands of dollars over several years that could otherwise go towards saving for a home purchase,’ he added. Among non-homeowners who believe student debt is delaying their ability to buy, over three quarters, including over 80% of millennials, said their delay is because they can't save for a down payment. Additionally, 69% don't feel financially secure enough to buy, and 63% can't qualify for a mortgage because of high debt to income ratios. Some 52% of those polled expect to be… Continue reading
Fewer affordable homes being built in England, latest data shows
There were over 33,300 new homes started in England in the 12 months to March 2016, excluding parts of London, of which the majority were affordable properties but fewer than the year before. Overall there were 33,332 housing starts on site and 25,315 housing completions delivered through programmes managed by the Homes and Communities Agency (HCA) in England, excluding London for all programmes except those administered by the HCA on behalf of the Greater London Authority between 01 April 2015 and 31 March 2016. The data shows that while the majority, 21,304 or 64%, of the housing starts on site in 2015/2016 were for affordable homes, this is a fall of 19% on the 26,458 affordable homes reported in 2014/2015. The data also shows that of the 16,544 affordable homes started in 2015/2016 were for affordable rent, a decrease of 24% on the 21,879 started in 2014/2015 but the number for shared ownership sand other affordable schemes at 4,158 rose by 25%. The remaining 602 were for social rent, a decrease of 52%. Some 17,394 or 69% of housing completions in 2015/2016 were for affordable homes, a fall of 57% on the 40,864 affordable homes completed in 2014/2015 but the report says that this reflects the normal peaks and troughs in delivery between programme periods, as the AHP 2011/2015 drew to a close in March 2015. And 13,100 affordable homes completed in 2015/2016 were for affordable rent, a decrease of 58% on the 30,834 completed in 2014/2015 while 2,801 were for intermediate affordable housing schemes, including shared ownership, a decrease of 60% and the remaining 1,493 were for social rent, a decrease of 50%. Of the affordable homes completed in 2015/2016, the AHP 2015/2018 accounted for 37%, the Affordable Homes Guarantees programme for 30% and the Affordable Homes Programme for 19%. Richard Connolly, chief executive officer of Rentplus, described the figures as disappointing. ‘Given investment from the Homes and Communities Agency helps to build around half of new homes in England each year, today’s data makes for a disappointing read,’ he said. ‘Affordable housing starts have been on a steady decline over the last three years and in view of population growth and the endemic housing affordability crisis in the UK, this is the wrong track to be heading down. Our belief is that mixed tenure communities, offering a range of housing options to suit different needs, including rent-to-buy, are crucial to building a strong and sustainable UK property market,’ he explained. ‘Completions of homes for affordable rent also fell 58% annually which will put more pressure on an increasingly diminishing resource for people in housing need. Affordable rent to buy homes provide a viable and complementary alternative to traditional rented homes, helping the many people struggling to save for a deposit to buy due to rent now consuming around half of young people’s salaries,’ he added. He also pointed out that the recent vote for the UK to leave the European Union… Continue reading
