Uk
UK monthly property price growth slowed to 0.2% in May, activity expected to slow further
Residential property prices in the UK edged upwards by just 0.2% in May in the run up to the historic vote on the future of the country in the European Union, according to the latest index. This meant that annual price growth slowed to 4.7%, taking the average price to £204,368, but activity in the market is expected to slow in the coming months due to a spike in March due to stamp duty changes and now the Brexit vote. Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist, pointed out that the annual pace of house price growth remains in the fairly narrow range between 3% and 5% that has been prevailing for much of the past 12 months. ‘In the near term, it’s going to be difficult to gauge the underlying strength of activity in the housing market due to the volatility generated by the stamp duty changes which took effect from 01 April,’ he said. ‘Indeed, the number of residential property transactions surged to an all-time high in March, some 11% higher than the pre-crisis peak as buyers of second homes sought to avoid the additional tax liabilities,’ he explained. He also pointed out that while cash purchases accounted for a significant proportion of the increase in activity it is not possible to determine whether or not these were purchased by landlords. Mortgage data suggests that, while buy to let purchases were a major driver of the increase, the purchase of second homes also accounted for a substantial proportion. The number of home mover mortgages, which is where second home purchases with a mortgage would show up, increased sharply in March. ‘House purchase activity is likely to fall in the months ahead given the number of purchasers that brought forward transactions. The recovery thereafter may also be fairly gradual, especially in the buy to let sector, where other policy changes, such as the reduction in tax relief for landlords from 2017, are likely to exert an ongoing drag,’ said Gardner. ‘Nevertheless, healthy labour market conditions and low borrowing costs are expected to underpin a steady increase in housing market activity once stamp duty related volatility has passed, providing the economic recovery remains on track,’ he added. ‘However, it is possible that the recent pattern of strong employment growth, rising real earnings, low borrowing costs and constrained supply will tilt the demand/supply balance in favour of sellers and exert upward pressure on price growth once again in the quarters ahead,’ he added. Gardner also explained that it is difficult to gauge how sentiment from overseas buyers will be impacted by increased economic uncertainty caused by Brexit on the one hand and the sharp decline in Sterling on the other, which, if sustained, reduces the cost of UK property in foreign currency terms. He pointed out that property prices in London have been supported by extremely robust labour market conditions as well as strong investor demand in recent years. Indeed, the price of a typical London property… Continue reading
Demand for homes in UK falls to three year low, according to estate agents
Uncertainty created by the UK’s decision to leave the European Union has triggered demand for property to fall to the lowest level seen in three years, according to a new report. The number of house sales agreed in May dropped in the run up to the referendum and the majority of estate agents believe that demand will fall further in the short term, according to the latest housing report from the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA). Estate agents recorded an average of 304 house hunters registered per member branch in May, as uncertainty in the lead up to the referendum stalled buyers. This was down 6% from April, and the lowest recorded since November 2013 when 292 buyers were registered per branch. The data also shows that compared to May 2015 when 383 house hunters were recorded, demand has decreased by 21% year on year. In line with falling demand in May, the supply of houses available to buyers increased marginally from 35 properties available to buy per branch in April to 37 in May. The number of sales agreed in May decreased to an average of eight per branch, a drop from nine in April falling to the same level seen during the seasonal slowdown in January. In May some 41% of agents predicted that house prices will fall and 30% expect demand will also decrease as a result of a the referendum result. Although the number of house hunters registered per branch and sales agreed fell in May, sales to first time buyers increased marginally. Some 27% of the total sales completed last month were to first time buyers, an increase of one percentage point from April. ‘The EU referendum without doubt meant that May was a month of uncertainty for potential house buyers and demand dropped significantly and is currently at the lowest level we have seen in the last three years,’ said Mark Hayward, NAEA managing director. ‘As a result of the vote for a Brexit, we expect international investors to look a lot harder at the UK as a potential market to buy in and this will have a knock on effect on the house building sector, as investments may be delayed or put off completely,’ he pointed out. ‘Although in the short term, we believe that house prices will remain stable, we cannot be certain about the next quarter as political uncertainty and market unrest could affect the housing market,’ he explained. He also pointed out that the supply of available housing is still extremely low compared to this time last year, which is particularly worrying. ‘As we continue to say, there are simply not a sufficient number of homes available in this country to cater for everyone’s needs and a Brexit could impact the skills required to drive property developments in the UK,’ said Hayward. ‘This means that… Continue reading
UK remortgage figures up in May, but uncertainty could now creep in
Last month was the best May for remortgaging since 2008 but uncertainty and volatility are now expected following the decision by the UK to leave the European Union. Remortgaging reached £5 billion in May and the number of loans reached 32,334, higher than every May since 2008, when 77,100 loans were approved while the average amount of equity withdrawn reached £33,600, the highest amount this year and 43% up from the previous month. However, despite record low interest rates, borrowers felt the pinch due to falling incomes, according to the research from LMS. Remortgage lending was up by 26% compared to May of last year but was down by 16% from April, which was an exceptional month for remortgaging. The number of remortgage loans also decreased month on month by 7% from 34,800 in April to 32,334 in May but this is 31% more than May 2015 when 24,700 borrowers remortgaged. The average amount of equity withdrawn per customer from remortgaging activity has risen by 43% month on month, from £23,479 in April to £33,691 in May. The average amount of equity withdrawn is also up by a quarter in comparison to May last year when equity withdrawn stood at £26,863. The total amount of equity withdrawn rose by 33% over April from £817 million to £1089 million in May, some 64% more year on year from the £664 million recorded in May 2015. This is also the highest amount of total equity withdrawn since May 2008, back when remortgagors withdrew almost £1.21 billion. Despite being the lowest interest rate on record, however, average household income fell from £50,000 in March to £44,898 in April. A drop of 10%. The household income recorded in April 2016 is also 1% lower than in April 2015, when income was recorded at £45,365. ‘Remortgaging witnessed its best month of May since 2008, although the numbers are slightly down following a rush to remortgage in April. The favourable mortgage market, with eagerly competitive lenders, record low rates and rising house prices provided the ideal background remortgaging to continue its year on year surge,’ said Andy Knee, chief executive of LMS. ‘We will have to wait and see what the impact of June’s Brexit decision on the housing and mortgage markets will be in the short and medium term. There will be some uncertainty and volatility to cope with as everyone absorbs the news and this is likely to put a dampener on the housing market at least until the autumn,’ he pointed out. ‘However, interest rates remain at historically low levels and for those with a mortgage now is a great time to take out a fixed rate and stabilise their financial outgoings. Lenders may well come under pressure and their appetites for new business may shrink in the short term. If they do, the range of excellent rates available today might not be around… Continue reading
