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London emerging prime property proves robust ahead of election
Prices in emerging prime property areas in South West London have remained robust in the first quarter of 2015 despite the uncertainties presented by the election, according to a new index. The top performers in terms of capital growth in the first three months of 2015 was Clapham, up 5.5% after a weaker fourth quarter in 2014, followed by Southfields and Earlsfield, up 2.9% compared to last quarter. The emerging prime index from Douglas & Gordon also shows that investors have been attracted by the strong rental growth and some areas have become hotspots for young professionals and overseas investors and tenants who are drawn to upmarket developments. Investors are continuing to flock to smaller units, particularly flats, and this is due to attractive prices and high yields of 3.7% to 5% compared to 2.2% and 3.7% in prime areas. The index report points out that the Chancellor of the Exchequer’s clear signal in the Autumn Statement that properties under £900,000 would be free of political interference has meant that demand for properties under this threshold has remained strong. When it comes to properties over £2 million there has been little pick up from the second half of 2014 and the report says this is due to the fallout from the overhaul in stamp duty structure announced last year and uncertainties ahead of the election, particularly the potential introduction of a mansion tax if certain political parties come to power. Properties in Putney and Battersea, which saw spectacular growth in 2013 and 2014 thanks to well-heeled families seeking family houses, saw a standstill in prices in the first quarter of 2015. The report says this is because property prices in these areas, which generally have more large properties than flats, are now approaching the politically sensitive £2 million barrier, which is the threshold for the mansion tax if introduced. ‘This quarter’s index confirms that emerging prime has become the sweet spot of the professional private rental sector. One bed flats in the £300,000 price range are one of the best investments, given their protection from political interference and the demand from young professionals who increasingly feel more at home in places like Clapham than Central London,’ said the firm’s executive director Ed Mead. ‘It is very telling that for many buyers, both domestic and overseas, emerging prime areas are achieving a social cachet they’ve have never had. While the pre-election period is causing capital growth of larger properties to pause, we still think there is still some way to go on value,’ he pointed out. ‘For instance in Clapham we see demand continuing in the long term given the amount of undeveloped stock in the area. We anticipate the upward trend in prices to be reinstated if no mansion tax is introduced,’ he added. Continue reading
Economists forecast property price growth of just 1.5% in UK, fall in London
UK house prices will grow only by 1.5% in 2015 but they are set to fall by 3.6% in London before growing again but slowly over the next five years, according to economists. The report from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) is an upward revision from its previous report in January when it forecast a fall of 0.6% in prices this year. It said that the impact of December’s stamp duty changes has been felt sooner than expected, with some buyers putting cash saved towards a deposit but while expectations have been revised up it is a more subdued outlook for London. The property market in the capital continues to show signs of cooling. Average house prices in London are expected to decline by 3.6% over 2015 but the report also points out that they increased by 17.4% in 2104. Cebr continues to expect London house prices to underperform the rest of the UK this year, following years of over performance. It points out that the strength of sterling against the euro, fears of a mansion tax and hefty new stamp duty rates on high value properties have all hit housing demand from overseas buyers. In 2015, for the first time since 2009, house price growth will be stronger outside the capital than in London itself. Leading indicators such as fewer new buyer enquiries and properties taking longer to sell already point to falling prices in the capital. Outside of the capital, the decline in overseas interest in UK property will be much less strongly felt. At the same time, most home buyers have benefited from December’s stamp duty changes as well as an improving labour market which has boosted consumer spending power. The YouGov/Cebr Household Economic Activity Tracker (HEAT) shows that consumer expectations for property price growth across the UK have been picking up in recent months after declining in October, something that is feeding through into rising consumer confidence in the run-up to the general election. ‘Outside of London, the outlook for house prices this year has improved after a few months when the market appeared to be coming off the boil. December’s stamp duty changes, as well as rising household incomes, are lifting prices in many parts of the UK,’ said Nina Skero, Cebr economist and main author of the report. ‘In London, however, we expect prices to decline by 3.6%, driven by a significant weakening at the prime end of the market. A potential mansion tax, reduced overseas interest and hefty new stamp duty rates have hit demand for high value property,’ he added. Continue reading
UK buy to let landlords increasingly see their properties as their pension
The new pension freedoms that came into force last week in the UK could trigger a huge interest in over 55s becoming landlords for the first time, it is claimed. New research by Property Let By Us, an online letting agent, shows that for 70% of younger landlords, their buy to let portfolio is their only pension fund. The study also shows that just one in five landlords said their property portfolio forms part of their pension provision. A further third of landlords are building their portfolios so that their children can benefit from the investment in the future. Over a third of landlords said their mortgages will be paid off by the time they retire and just 6% claim they will sell their properties on their retirement. What’s more, 28% of landlords plan to expand their property portfolios in 2015 and over a third of landlords use a letting agent to help manage their properties. ‘With mortgage rates at an all-time low and rents rising across the UK, it is no surprise that more and more investors are entering the buy to let market. Our research shows that many landlords see their property portfolios as a long term investment and a major part of their pension planning,’ said Jane Morris, managing director of Property Let By Us. She pointed out that potential new retiree landlords need to choose their property and location carefully. A recent report by estate agents, Chestertons shows that Birmingham has a 6.8% average gross rental yield, while Manchester has 6.4%, Sheffield has 6.3%, Leeds has 6% and Cambridge has 4.6%. ‘Anybody considering becoming a landlord should speak to local estate agents to see what the rental demand is like locally and what monthly rental income they can expect. However, if retires have no experience of the property market, they may be better considering alternative investment options,’ added Morris. Continue reading
