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Sales of new homes in Australia at their highest since 2010
The new homes sector in Australia has seen strong growth in March 2015, taking sales volumes to their highest level since early 2010, according to the latest survey. Overall new home sales were up 4.4%. There was an 11.3% rise in multi-unit sales and a 2.6% rise in detached home sales in March, according to the latest new home sales report covering the largest volume builders by the Housing Industry Association. ‘The monthly rise in both the detached and multi-unit segments of the market is an encouraging result. However, the broader trend is that growth over the past year has been driven by multi-unit sales, while detached house sales have tracked sideways,’ said HIA economist Diwa Hopkins. ‘The residential construction sector continues to be the main bright spot in the broader domestic economy, with updates to the sector showing its ongoing strength. Lower lending rates will provide added support to residential construction activity, which is emerging as a key area of growth mitigating the effects of the downturn in mining investment and construction,’ she added. A breakdown of the figures show that detached house sales increased by 5.9% in Victoria, 4.2% in New South Wales and also 4.2% in Western Australia. They declined by 5.8% in South Australia and by 2.3% in Queensland. In the March 2015 quarter, detached house sales increased by 5.2% in Victoria and by 4.3% in Queensland. In Western Australia they fell by 6.4%, in New South Wales by 3.6% and in South Australia by 1.4%. However, the latest renovations report from the HIA shows that this sector of the property market is struggling. Over the past three years the volume of renovations activity has fallen by 15%. The performance of South Australia typified the national trend. Over the 2012/2013 period, renovations activity the state declined from $2.10 billion to $1.78 billion, a drop of 15.1%. ‘The importance of the home renovations market is often underestimated. Valued at $29.66 billion during 2014, the renovations sector accounts for over one third of all residential construction activity and about 2% of GDP,’ said HIA senior economist Shane Garrett. ‘Big ticket expenditure items like home renovation jobs tend to suffer disproportionately at times when economic growth is slow and when unemployment is drifting upwards. The deceleration of wages growth to its lowest rate in almost two decades has also challenged the renovations sector,’ he explained. The report envisages a further decline of 2.8% in renovations activity during 2015. However, activity will experience an 8.2% uplift between 2015 and 2018, as a result of low interest rates and the gradual recovery of economic activity. Continue reading
Improved economy helps UK commercial property markets
The last year has seen a marked shift in the commercial property markets in the UK, powered by improved economic fundamentals which drive the underlying occupier base, according to new reports. The broad based improvement in economic growth, aided by low inflation, has seen improvements in both consumer and business confidence, which should lead to rental growth where demand outstrips supply, says the latest analysis from Cluttons. The firm’s Commercial Property Market Outlook report indicates that the industrial sector is now showing similar performance to offices, as Cluttons predicted last year. Office total returns for the past 12 months are at 23% with capital growth of 16.8%, compared to the industrial sector which has delivered a total return of 22.7% bolstered by capital growth of 15.1%, driven primarily by yield compression. ‘As we forecast last year, sheds are now matching offices for performance. One reason is that prime logistics take-up has improved over the past year, driven by manufacturers, especially in the automotive sector, and retailers with supply constraints in key locations,’ said John Barrett, head of valuations at Cluttons. ‘Apart from the strong supply/demand fundamentals aided by supply shortages due to a lack of speculative development in recent years, the case for investment in the industrial sector is helped by low obsolescence and the squeeze on land supply from higher land value uses. This is especially the case in London and the south east,’ he explained. ‘With prime yields now stabilising across most markets, income growth is replacing yield compression as the primary driver of future performance. Average income return is at 6%, so it's still a good time to invest in property,’ he added. ‘However this is not universal. Tricky' secondary property remains hard to sell across all market sectors and this may present opportunities for investors prepared to take risks for higher returns,’ he concluded. Meanwhile, the latest research from real estate advisor Savills shows that UK commercial property returns continue to remain attractive in comparison to other asset classes as average prime yields stay stable for the third consecutive month at 4.59%. Savills Market in Minutes report found that the average total return on UK commercial property stands at 18.63% to the end of the first quarter of 2015, in stark contrast to oil, copper and gold, which offer returns of -42.57%, -16.4% and -8.9% respectively. The firm predicts that due to the strong level of demand property should continue to outperform many other asset classes this year. The report suggests that against this backdrop of stability, a split between property asset classes is set to emerge over the next three months. At present, in the office market the gap between prime regional yields at 5% and prime city of London yields at 4.25% is historically narrow. Still, it is likely that central London office yields will harden in the near future, primarily due to the weight of money that is targeted at larger office lots in the UK, something… Continue reading
UK mansion tax could affect thousands of ordinary home owners, expert warns
If a mansion tax is introduced in the UK on higher value homes the knock-on effects could prove disastrous for thousands of ordinary home owners, it is claimed. Owners who still have mortgages on their properties or who have invested for their retirement in property and benefitted from the rise in values rise over time will be affected the most, according to Chestertons estate agency. The Labour party, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens are all proposing some form of levy on higher value homes so any deal between the parties that sees Ed Miliband become the next Prime Minister would surely see a mansion tax brought forward, probably within the first few months of the new administration taking power. For those with a mortgage, the levy would be an effective ‘tax on debt’, according to Chestertons Group chief executive officer Robert Bartlett. ‘Let's be clear, this is a wealth tax in every way but name. Details are scant on how it will work in practice, or how much revenue it might raise, but the threshold of what qualifies as a mansion would likely fall around the £2 million mark,’ he said. ‘We know the vast majority of these homes are in London and, while Miliband himself jokes that his current London home would fall into this bracket, it will be no laughing matter for thousands of ordinary Londoners,’ he explained. ‘Unless you are very rich, you are likely to have a mortgage on your home. Let's say your home is worth £2.5 million but you have a £1.5 million mortgage. That means your asset value is only £1 million, but you will be taxed as though you own the property outright. This would potentially make this tax the UK's first ever tax on debt,’ he pointed out. He added, that even if the property is owned outright, perhaps having been bought with a mortgage which has now been paid down in full, then the mansion tax could prove problematic for many households. ‘Older householders may be particularly hard hit, especially if they are retired and on a reduced income. They are also less likely to be able to remortgage to release capital. They could be forced to sell up and downsize to avoid a tax they simply can't afford. In many cases they may have to move away completely if more affordable homes are not available in their local area,’ said Bartlett. ‘The implementation of a new tax with a threshold beginning at £2 million would also likely have an immediate impact on values. Properties worth around £2.25 million for instance could drop to under the £2 million threshold overnight, which could send many home owners into negative equity. Thus in turn the tax may not bring in as much as calculated,’ he explained. He also believes the threshold could creep downwards. ‘It is very easy for a government to change tax thresholds and I expect that we will quickly see the £2… Continue reading
