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Home building reaches a new high in Australia
This year has seen a record number of new homes being built in Australia, according to the latest outlook report from the Housing Industry Association. However, the growth in new residential construction has been slower to gather momentum and breadth in terms of both geographical location and dwelling type, it says. According to HIA chief economist, Dr Harley Dale, this means that the ‘look and feel’ of this building cycle is different to historical experience. ‘In aggregate, we will commence nearly 190,000 new dwellings in 2014, surpassing the previous record of 187,000 back in 1994,’ said Dale. ‘The momentum culminating in this milestone has provided a substantial boost to Australia’s economy at a crucial juncture in the cycle. Below trend economic growth and weak labour market outcomes would be considerably worse without the reach a new home building recovery is exerting into the broader economy,’ he explained. He pointed out that against this backdrop the HIA believes it is unfortunate that policy makers have failed to grasp the reform initiative required to compliment record low borrowing costs and send new home building levels higher still in 2015 and 2016. ‘Australia’s economic growth and labour market performance will be weaker than otherwise as a consequence of this lack of policy action. Record low borrowing costs have combined with other factors such as high net overseas migration to unleash substantial pent-up demand for new housing,’ said Dale. ‘These factors will keep the level of new homes commenced at historically elevated levels. However, what the economy needs is further growth in new home building over the next couple of years, but that will only occur as a consequence of taxation and regulatory reform,’ he pointed out. ‘It is still an impressive achievement to build a record number of new homes, at a level that approaches what the average build rate will have to be if we are to adequately house our growing and ageing population in coming decades,’ he said. He explained that renovations investment has not joined the new housing ride this cycle, increasing by only 0.3% in 2013/2014 from a decade low. ‘Unemployment concerns, a lack of available credit, and an elevated household savings rate are but three elements in the current environment which mean there has not been room for a renovations recovery alongside new home building activity and existing property price growth,’ said Dale. But he pointed out that that situation looks to be slowly changing as growth of 0.9% in renovations investment in 2014/2015 is forecast to accelerate to 2% growth in the subsequent three years. ‘That would be a great outcome, but it is a long road back for this important sector of Australia’s domestic economy,’ Dale concluded. Continue reading
Rents fall across majority of UK regions in October, latest monthly index shows
Most regions in the UK saws rental prices fall in October and while they are still higher than a year ago the last three months data indicates a cooling in the market, according to the latest index. Outside of London the average monthly rent is now £708, according to the HomeLet index which also shows that Plymouth, Cardiff and Leeds most affordable major cities to rent in the UK while London, Edinburgh and Birmingham are least affordable. Overall the rents landlords are charging on new tenancy agreements are continuing to fall across the UK with rental prices dropping in seven out of 12 regions of the country in October 2014. While rents for new tenancies in October were still higher than in the same month of 2013, HomeLet has now recorded lower rental prices in each of the past three months in many regions, indicating a cooling in the rental market. Regions that have previously recorded high growth such as Greater London, East Anglia the South East and the South West of England are now recording falling rental prices. In Greater London, for example, rents levied on new tenancies signed in October 2014 were 3.8% lower than September 2014. In the South East, rents fell 3.1% and in East Anglia prices dropped 5.4%, while the South West saw the biggest monthly drop with rents falling by 9.3% Meanwhile, in areas of the country where rents have not been rising quite so fast, October saw continued growth. In the North East of England, rents on new tenancies rose by 3.8% in October and in the East Midlands, October’s increase was 3.4%. A breakdown of the figures show that in Scotland the average monthly rent it £587, down 4.4% month on month but up 2.6% annually while in Wales it is £597, down 1% month on month and up 3.3% year on year. Northern Ireland saw monthly rents fall 6.3% to £578 but up just 0.9% year on year. The average monthly rent in East Anglia is £781, down 5.4% compared with September but up 8.5% annually. In the South West it is £787, down 9.3% month on month and up 3.6% annually while the South East saw rents fall 3.1% to £880, an annual rise of 7.3%. In the North West rents increased by 1.7% on a monthly basis to £671 and are up 7.5% year on year. Yorkshire and Humberside also saw a monthly rise with rents up 0.2% to £608 and up 4.8% annually. In the North East rents increased by 3.8% to £528 and are up 2.3% year on year while the West Midlands saw a rise of 0.6% to £660 but rents are 11.7% higher than a year ago. The East Midlands also saw a rise with rents up 3.4% to £605 and up 2.9% annually. London, which tends to be on a different trajectory to the rest of the country, saw rents fall by 3.8% compared to September,… Continue reading
House price recovery spreads out in UK, but growth is slowing, says Hometrack index
The top 20 cities in the UK are all registering annual house price growth of 5% or more for the first time in a decade, according to a new index. It is a sign that the housing recovery is spreading, however upward price momentum is slowing, Hometrack’s UK Cities House Price Index shows. It also points out that the annual house price growth is more than three times the current growth in average UK earnings which is 1.3% and explains that pent up demand has fed back into the market supported by low mortgage rates and a pick up in the economy. However, there is clear evidence that the upward pressure on house price is starting to slow on weaker demand for housing. In the last three months, average UK house prices have grown by 0.6% per month compared to 1.1% in the three months to May 2014. The majority of cities are now starting to show signs of a deceleration in the underlying rate of growth but cities with the lowest growth in Spring 2014 such as Glasgow, Edinburgh and Newcastle, have recorded an acceleration as house prices rise off a low base. This latest analysis shows that 11 cities have an average house price below that of the UK with Liverpool and Glasgow house prices 41% lower than the UK average. However, London bucks the trend with an average house price of more than double that of the UK at 117%, illustrating how the capital dominates the rest of the country and is distorting the national picture. The Cities Index also showed a post-referendum bounce in house prices in Edinburgh and Glasgow as confidence improves with average prices up 4.1% and 2.2% respectively in the last quarter. However the market in Aberdeen was down 2% in last quarter and the report says it is being impacted by a weak oil price with house prices declining off a high base. Oxford and Cambridge have seen average prices come off the boil quite sharply in the last three months with a fall of 1.2% and 2.3% respectively, with house prices starting to fall back after very strong gains of 42% and 52% in the last four years. The firm says that these smaller cities are seeing pricing levels respond more quickly to weaker demand. ‘The pick-up in house prices that started two years ago has spread across all UK cities with growth ranging from 5.5% in Liverpool and Glasgow to 18% in London. This latest analysis shows that momentum in house price increases is starting to slow with less pent up demand for housing than two years ago,’ said Richard Donnell, research director at Hometrack. ‘Whilst mortgage rates remain low, new mortgage affordability tests and loan to income caps are impacting on the ability of marginal buyers to access the market, especially in the higher value markets such as London. On top of this, concerns over… Continue reading
