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UK house prices to rise between 3% and 5% next year, it is predicted
A further moderation in house price growth in the UK is likely next year and house prices nationally are expected to increase in a range of 3% to 5% in 2015. The prospect of higher interest rates at some point in the year and the deterioration in affordability over the past year are expected to be key factors curbing housing demand, according to the latest house price inflation report from the Halifax. But housing demand should be supported by solid economic growth, higher employment, still low mortgage rates and the first gain in ‘real’ earnings for several years, the report suggests. Halifax said it expects to see a more even regional pattern in house price growth during 2015. Global economic worries could reduce demand and activity at the top end of the London market in 2015. Further ahead, price growth is expected to rise broadly in line with income growth, as rising interest rates increase the affordability constraint on the market. Higher levels of house building should also limit upward house price pressure. ‘The fortunes of the housing market are closely tied to developments in the wider economy. The strengthening in the UK economy has contributed to higher housing demand over the past 18 to 24 months. There has been an increase in the number of buyers, fuelled by rising confidence and the improved cost and availability of credit. Higher demand, however, has not been matched by an increase in the number of sellers in the market, resulting in strong upward pressure on house prices in some parts of the UK,’ said Halifax’s housing economist, Martin Ellis. ‘The deterioration in housing affordability as a result of higher house prices, earnings growth that has been consistently below consumer price inflation until very recently and increased talk of an interest rate rise, appear to have combined to temper housing demand since the summer. Tighter mortgage rules may also have acted as a brake on activity. The weakening in housing demand has led to a modest easing in both price growth and sales,’ he explained. He pointed out that house prices in the three months to October were 0.8% higher than in the preceding three months. This was the third consecutive decline in the quarterly rate of increase and the smallest rise since December 2012. Annual price growth in the three months to October slowed to 8.8% from 9.6% in September. Activity has also declined with mortgage approvals in September falling for the third successive month to a 14 month low, whilst home sales are at their lowest level since October 2013. ‘There has been a slight easing in economic momentum during the second half of 2014, mainly reflecting global economic developments, particularly the slowdown in the euro zone. Despite slowing moderately, the pace of growth remains robust. Moreover, the UK economy has moved from a period of prolonged stagnation to growth at, or above, its long run trend over the past 18 months or so. Overall, UK economic activity is… Continue reading
UK property transactions up 3.2% month on month, HMRC provisional data shows
The number of seasonally adjusted property transactions in the UK increased by 3.2% in October and are up 4.3% compared to a year ago, according to the latest data published by HMRC. The pattern since the beginning of 2013/2014 has been of a general month on month increase in transactions for the seasonally adjusted data until February 2014, then a gradual decrease followed by a flattening out of transaction numbers. The data also shows that August 2014 saw a peak for recent non-seasonally adjusted transactions, the highest level since November 2007. In October 2014, the number of non-adjusted transactions has risen compared with September 2014, for residential properties. However, the rise was smaller than in previous years, so the seasonally adjusted figure for October 2014 is lower than in the previous month but higher than in October 2013. The seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of non-residential property transactions increased by 0.1% between September 2014 and October 2014. This month’s figure is also 8.0% higher compared to the same month last year. Seasonally adjusted transactions of non-residential property have been fairly stable over the last year. Non-seasonally adjusted transactions had a large drop in the first two months of 2014, but increased sharply in March. There were also dips in May and August, with month on month growth since then. Meanwhile, the latest transaction data from the Land Registry shows that it completed over 1.5 million applications from its customers in October. This includes 1,464,352 applications by account customers, of which 382,966 were applications in respect of registered land (dealings), 662,153 were applications to obtain an official copy of a register or title plan, 205,537 were searches and 102,912 were transactions for value. The South East topped the table of regional applications with 349,858 and Birmingham topped the table of local authority applications with 23,528. Continue reading
Gazumping is back in the UK with buyers in Brighton most affected
Brighton leads the way as the gazumping capital of Britain with 34.9% of residents losing out in this way, new research has found. As if getting a foot on the property ladder wasn’t already hard enough for some, the danger of being gazumped is now becoming a reality again for property buyers, according to a study by online estate agent eMoov. It found that on average across the UK some 22% have experienced the turmoil of being gazumped which can leave prospective buyers out of pocket and back to square one in the buying process. In the London market gazumping is over the national average with 31.9% in the capital have come within touching distance of a purchase before it was snatched from their grasp. The tactic of sealed bidding, particularly rife in the capital, provides the ideal environment for potential gazumpers. Outside of the South East the average drops from 22% to 18%. Birmingham figures show 27% of property buyers in the area have been gazumped with Sheffield at 22%, Bristol at 21%, Leeds and Nottingham at 20%. Although gazumping is not a new concept it has become a more regular occurrence across the country. The research also found that the higher the price of the property, the more likely you are to be gazumped. Of those that had been previously gazumped 27% were over properties of £500,000 or above. This dropped to 25% for properties valued between £200,000 and £500,000 and a further 6% for properties under £200,000. ‘It is one of those things in the current structure of property purchasing unfortunately. Buyers that have displayed honest interest in a property only to be let down by owners with pound signs in their eyes, often encouraged by traditional estate agent looking to increase his fee percentage,’ said Russell Quirk, the firm’s chief executive officer. Liverpool was the least affected area of England for gazumping at just 13%, however this doesn’t necessarily put an end to unethical behaviour during the buying process. ‘If these markets cool off too much, we could see gazundering coming back in. This is a tactic in areas with little demand where the buyer calls up just before the exchange of contracts and demands to pay less,’ explained Quirk. Continue reading
