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London prime property prices still falling and expected to be flat in 2016
Prime property prices in London fell by an average of 0.8% in the final quarter of 2015 and are expected to remain flat in 2016 and into 2017, the latest residential index shows. The latest fall in the prime London homes sector leaves prices a marginal 0.5% above the levels seen at the beginning of the year, while prime regional town and city markets averaged 4.4% annual growth, according to the research by international property adviser Savills. The marginally positive average annual house price growth across all prime London is attributable to the performance of property below £2 million, which recorded growth of 2.2% over the course of the year, according to the report. However, over the course of 2015 prices fell in all of the submarkets above this price level in London. Prime central London has seen prices fall year on year by 3.4% and 1.5% quarter on quarter and are 6% below the peak of 2014. Overall in prime London prices are up 0.5% year on year, down 0.8% quarter on quarter and down just 0.9% since the peak. Prices have been affected by the stamp duty changes a year ago. In the under £2 million sector they are up 2.2% year on year and 1.7% above the peak but down 0.4% quarter on quarter while all other sectors have seen prices fall. In the £2 million to £3 million market prices are down 1.4% quarter on quarter, down 0.2% year on year and down 2.7% since the 2014 peak. In the £3 million to £5 million sector they are down 1.2% quarter on quarter, down 1.3% year on year and down 3.8% from peak. The higher end of the market is also affected with price growth down all round. In the £5 million to £10 million market prices are down 1.5% quarter on quarter, down 3.3% year on year and down 5.9% from peak. In the £10 million plus market prices are down 1.3% quarter on quarter, down 3.7% year on year and down 7.5% since peak. ‘This reflects a continued adjustment to a less hospitable tax regime and successive increases in stamp duty rates in particular. This is particularly impacting the higher value markets of prime central London,’ said Lucian Cook, the firm’s head of UK residential research. ‘Since the credit crunch, is has been common practice to index price growth in prime London to the previous peak of 2007/2008. It is now clear that 2014 is the new peak reference point for a market that has continued to adjust to higher taxation, introduced at a time when the market was already looking fully priced,’ he added. He also pointed out that while the prime central London market remains price sensitive, data from LonRes indicates that transaction levels in the first 11 months of the year were 75% of the levels seen in the year previous for stock sold for over £1million. ‘In addition,… Continue reading
Number of rural estates sold in Scotland doubled in 2015
Despite challenges facing the rural property sector in Scotland, including political and economic uncertainty, more than double the number of rural estates sold this year compared with 2014. Research from real estate firm Savills reveals quality and diversity of field sport and conservation were the main drivers for purchase in 2015, with viewers coming from the length and breadth of the UK, the Middle East, the US, Belgium, Sweden and the Netherlands. ‘The estate market has shown a significant increase in activity this year, despite the publication of the draft Land Reform Bill in June,’ said Evelyn Channing, a Director in Savills Edinburgh office specialising in the sale of rural estates. The figures show that so far this year, some 20 estates totalling 118,000 acres have sold or are under offer at an accumulative asking price of £63 million, more than double the number sold in 2014 but equivalent to 2013. ‘Almost a third of the estates sold this year were launched prior to 2015. Last year’s referendum resulted in a quieter market in 2014 and deterred many potential sellers from coming to the market,’ explained Channing. ‘Savills has handled over a third of the estates sold on the open market this year. Around 50% of our buyers have been British, in contrast to the past few years when the majority of purchasers were from overseas,’ she added. The research also suggests that in the current climate, buyers appear to be taking comfort in being in competition with others on the open market. Savills estimates that only 15% of sales in 2015 were conducted privately, considerably less than in previous years. ‘No market thrives on uncertainty, and there was a sense of trepidation from buyers, sellers and indeed selling agents at the start of the year, with minds being focused on the ‘what if’s’ of Land Reform,’ Channing pointed out. ‘However, the way ahead has become significantly clearer in recent months and we are anticipating the return of confidence in the estate market in Scotland will lead to further increased activity in 2016,’ she concluded. Continue reading
Spanish home prices up 4.5% year on year in third quarter of 2015, rents also up
Residential property prices increased by 4.5% in the third quarter of 2015 compared to the same period in 2014, according to the latest data from the National Statistics Institute. The details from the housing price index means that prices have now increased for six quarters annually in a row following six years of decline and it is the highest quarterly rise since the last quarter of 2007 when growth was 5.7%, just before the global economic downturn. House prices then started falling in the second quarter of 2008 with a decline of 0.3% and continued to fall until the second quarter of 2014. A breakdown of the figures show that the price of new homes fell by 4.3% and other homes were up by 4.5% while quarter on quarter prices overall increased 0.7% which followed a strong rise of 4.1% in the second quarter of the year. In what is a sign of the universal nature of the recovery in the Spanish property market the figures show a rise in prices in almost every region in the country. Asturias and Extremadura recorded the greatest annual rates of increase, up by 2.6% and 2.4%, to 3.5% and 3.3%, respectively, while the greatest annual fall was in the Basque Country and Valencia, down by 0.9% and 0.6% to 1% and 2.1%, respectively. Quarter on quarter nine regions saw prices rise, seven recorded declines and prices remained stable in the Basque Country. The largest quarterly increase was in the Balearic Islands with growth of 3.1% and Asturias up 1.8%, while the biggest fall was in Navarra with a decline of 1.1% and Aragón down 1%. Residential rents are also rising and increased year on year in all regions in November, the first time this has happened for eight years. The data from property porta Fotocasa shows this was led by Catalonia with an annual rise of 10.6%, followed by the Balearic Islands up 7.8%, Madrid up 6.3% and La Rioja up 6%. In Castilla-La Mancha average rents increased by 0.7%, Cantabria was up 1%, the Basque Country up 1.1% and Navarra up 1.3%. Month on month rents increased by 0.5% to €7.02 per square meter per month with 11 regions seeing rises. The Balearic Islands saw a monthly rise of 1.9% and Catalonia up 1.3% while La Rioja, the Canary Islands and Cantabria all saw growth of 0.6%. But average rental prices fell by 1.2% month on month in Galicia, fell by 0.9% in the Basque Country and by 0.8% in Murcia. The data also shows that since the peak of the market in May 2007 when rents were €10.12 per square meter per month rental values have fallen by 30.7% and five regions have seen accumulated declines over 30%. The steepest decline since peak has been in Aragón where rental prices have fallen by 41.6%, followed by Cantabria down 36.1%, Castilla-La Mancha down 35.2%, Valencia down 34.5% and Murcia down 32.3%. The smallest declines from peak are in Castilla… Continue reading
