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US homes sales tumble but partly due to change in time frames rather than demand
Existing home sales in the United States fell considerably in November to the slowest pace in 19 months, according to the latest monthly report from the National Association of Realtors. However, some of the decrease was likely because of an apparent rise in closing time frames that may have pushed some transactions into December, the report says. It shows that all four major regions saw sales declines in November with total existing home sales down 10.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.76 million in November, the lowest since April 2014. After last month's decline, the largest since July 2010 at 22.5%, sales are now 3.8% below a year ago, the first year on year decrease since September 2014. According to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, multiple factors led to November's sales decline, but the primary reason could be an anomaly as the industry adjusts to the new Know Before You Owe rule. ‘Sparse inventory and affordability issues continue to impede a large pool of buyers' ability to buy, which is holding back sales. However, signed contracts have remained mostly steady in recent months, and properties sold faster in November. Therefore it's highly possible the stark sales decline wasn't because of sudden, withering demand,’ he explained. Yun believes that while estate agents are adjusting accordingly to the Know Before You Owe initiative, the main result so far has been the need for longer closing times. According to NAR's Realtors Confidence Index some 47% of respondents in November reported that they are experiencing a longer time to close compared to a year ago, up from 37% in October. ‘It's possible the longer time frames pushed a latter portion of would be November transactions into December. As long as closing timeframes don't rise even further, it's likely more sales will register to this month's total, and November's large dip will be more of an outlier,’ Yun pointed out. The index also shows that pries are still rising. The median existing home price for all housing types in November was $220,300, 6.3% percent above November 2014 and the 45th consecutive month of year on year gains. Total housing inventory at the end of November decreased 3.3% to 2.04 million existing homes available for sale and is now 1.9% lower than a year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 5.1-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.8 months in October. NAR president Tom Salomone said that real estate agents worked hard to prepare for Know Before You Owe. ‘We knew there would be some near term challenges as the industry continues to adapt. Nonetheless, an early trend of longer lead times to closings is cause for concern,’ he commented. He added that the NAR will continue to work with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to ensure as little disruption as possible to the business of real estate. The latest data also shows that properties typically stayed on the market for 54 days in November, a decrease from… Continue reading
Scottish rents up just 0.1% in November, latest index shows
Scottish residential rental growth has almost ground to a halt in the run up to the festive holiday season with the average monthly rent up in November by 0.1% month on month. This takes the average rent to £546 per month with the data from the Your Move Scotland buy to let index showing that growth has fallen from a 0.2% rise between September and October. On an annual basis, the pace of rent rises in Scotland is also continuing to decline. November marks the fifth successive month where annual rent growth has slowed. With Scottish rents now just 1.4% higher than a year ago, the pace of annual rent rises has more than halved since the June peak when rents were up 3.1% year on year. But the headline figures disguise rises in some locations. For example, in Edinburgh and the Lothians rents increased to a new peak of £635 per month with a 0.8% monthly rise in November. The index data also shows that landlord total returns have increased to 6% across Scotland led by Glasgow and Clyde at 9.8% and the buy to let sector has seen its first fall in tenant arrears for six months. According to Brian Moran, lettings director at Your Move Scotland, the market is now set for change in 2016 with an extra 3% stamp duty tax set to be in place from April and rent control proposals looming. He reckons it will result in fewer properties available for rent which could push up prices. ‘Fresh supply is likely to be put on ice. Rents will then be ultimately be vulnerable to the shrinking pool of available homes for let. Landlords and the private rented sector have become a popular target for the Government recently but any attempts to curb investment in the private rented sector, and undermine landlords, will only have an adverse effect on tenants’ rents,’ he said. A breakdown of the index figures shows that as well as Edinburgh and the Lothians seeing growth above average, rents in the South of Scotland climbed 0.2% and those in the South were up 0.1%. Glasgow and Clyde saw the most significant monthly fall in rents, down 0.6% and the Highlands and Islands saw a 0.1% decrease in average rents since October. The picture is also mixed on an annual basis, with only three of the five regions of Scotland seeing rents increase in the past year. The Highlands and Islands saw rents rise 5.8% year on year, taking the average to £569. The next strongest annual increase was in the South of Scotland, up 3.1% and in Edinburgh and the Lothians typical rents are now 2.9% higher than in November 2014. Compared to a year ago, Glasgow and Clyde saw the biggest drop in rents, down 1.3% while average rents in the East of Scotland were down 0.1% year on year. After five months of successive rises, tenant arrears in Scotland… Continue reading
Extra stamp duty set to reduce number of lettings in UK, say agents
The extra stamp duty charge for the buy to let sector that begins next April has triggered a less optimistic outlook among letting agents in the UK. Some 40% are predicting that rental supply will decrease over the next five years, the highest rate this year, according to the latest report from the Association of Residential Letting Agents (ARLA). ‘This month’s findings are triggered the Chancellor’s announcements around buy to let tax in his Autumn Statement. We said these changes would be catastrophic for the rental sector and this has been echoed by letting agents across the country,’ said David Cox, ARLA managing director. ‘The new stamp duty increases will make owning a buy to let property unprofitable for a lot of landlords, and certainly make new investors think twice about purchasing a buy to let,’ he added. The ARLA monthly report also shows that tenants experiencing rent increases continue to fall, with 23% of letting agents reporting rent increases for tenants in November, down from 25% in October and the lowest in 2015 so far. Demand for rental properties increased marginally in November, alongside supply of available housing which was likely a result of tenants preparing themselves to find new rental properties in the New Year. ARLA agents registered an average of 34 new tenants per branch this month, up from 33 in October. Supply of rental accommodation also increased in November, rising by 9% from an average of 173 properties managed per branch in October, to 189 this month. However, renters in the capital will still struggle to find a property, with only 121 properties managed per branch, some 36% less than the UK average. ‘It’s promising to see that the number of agents reporting rent increases is continuing to decline, and this should spread some Christmas cheer amongst renters renewing tenancies or looking for a new property to rent,’ said Cox. ‘However, just under a quarter of tenants are still unfortunately seeing hikes in their monthly rent payments. But if we continue to follow trends we’ve seen in previous months, we should see fewer tenants experiencing increases as we welcome in 2016,’ he added. Continue reading
