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Investing Sensibly in China and Its BRIC Buddies

By David Smith August 28, 2013 It was a dozen years ago that Jim O’Neill, the recently retired head of Goldman Sachs ‘ money management arm, coined the term BRICs. It was simply an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, and China, the four developing nations that were then expected to lead the world’s economic growth well into the future. But the foursome has fallen far short of those expectations. As The Wall Street Journal noted just last week, O’Neill says now that only China has come close to meeting the once heady expectations for the group. Still going strong? Assuming the big country meets the 7.5% growth rate that’s generally expected of it in 2013 — major slippage from prior years, but far better than the 1.5% improvement that’s likely to be coaxed out of the U.S. — it could nudge the combined BRIC growth rate toward intermediate-term expansion of about 6.6%. That’s well below the 8.5% for the past decade, but hardly chopped liver. A key consideration then becomes the existence of meaningful investment opportunities in the countries. India is the most economically downtrodden right now. Indeed, as Derick Irwin of Wells Fargo Advantage Funds was quoted by the Journal as saying not long ago, “India is not an investible economy right now.” Battered Brazil And while my druthers for playing the BRICs lie in the energy sector — several big public companies have sallied forth from the countries to ply their trade internationally, thereby spreading their geographic and geologic exposure — I’d eliminate Brazil’s once beloved Petrobras for now. The Brazilian economy is a shadow of its former self, with likely growth of 2% for the next couple of years providing a meager contrast to the 7.5% the country achieved in 2010. And while discoveries in the pre-salt Santos Basin had the world atwitter not long ago, the realities of sky-high production costs tied to the technologically challenging venue have played a big role in the pummeling of Petrobras’s shares during the past 18 months. A Chinese threesome Turning to China, my inclination is to examine the trio of CNOOC ( NYSE: CEO ) , PetroChina ( NYSE: PTR ) , and Sinopec ( NYSE: SNP ) , in that order. CNOOC is China’s largest offshore producer, with core operations in Bohai Bay off the country’s coast, the China Sea, and the East China Sea. It also works in Australia, Nigeria, Uganda, Argentina, Canada, and the U.S. In February, it spent $15.1 billion to buy Canada’s Nexen, then that country’s second-largest oil company. In the process, it gained operations in the North Sea, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, and West Africa. It earlier had formed a partnership with Chesapeake for a one-third interests in the Oklahoma City company’s sizable positions in the Niobrara play of Colorado and Wyoming and the prolific Eagle Ford. Despite its broad international swath, a healthy 3.70% forward annual yield, and a 32% operating margin, CNOOC’s forward P/E multiple is just 7.4 times. PetroChina is the largest of the lot, with a $205 billion market capitalization. It’s more operationally diverse than CNOOC, with segments that span exploration and production, refining and chemicals, marketing, and pipelines. PetroChina is acquiring more than half of ExxonMobil ‘s interests in Iraq’s West Qurna-1 field , which may or may not be a good thing. And, in a joint venture with Royal Dutch Shell, its considering constructing an LNG facility in Australia. The company provides a 3.50% forward dividend yield. But while its operating margin is barely a quarter of CNOOC’s, it’s forward P/E is 8.6%. That said, I’d rather own the Hong Kong-based offshore company. My conclusion is similar vis-a-vis a comparison between Sinopec and CNOOC. The former on Monday reported a more than 24% year-over-year earnings increase for the first half of 2013. And while its forward yield is a compelling 5.90%, its operating margin, at 3.6%, is about a ninth of CNOOC’s. In part for that reason, its forward P/E is just 6.2%. A Russian play in London As to Russia, I’ll keep it short but surprising: I’d invest in Rosneft , the country’s giant oil company. But I’d do so through BP ( NYSE: BP ) . As my Foolish colleague Tyler Crowe noted last weekend, BP owns just under a 20% interest in the big Rusky producer. That stake arriveded through the sale of its half interest in TNK-BP, formerly Russia’s third-largest oil company, to Rosneft. The result for BP? A hefty $460 million in annual after-tax dividends. And for investors? A means to participate in Rosneft’s massive expansion with something of a filter from Russian shenanigans . A Foolish takeaway So there you have it: CNOOC and BP appear to be the best vehicles for BRIC energy investing. That conclusion is subject to change for a host of reasons, including geopolitics. Nevertheless, it provides a starting point for analyzing the investment opportunities that still exist among the BRICs. With the energy sector holding steady in the midst of market volatility, one company makes especially good sense for the addition to Foolish portfolios. Warren Buffett is so confident in this company’s can’t-live-without-it business model, he just loaded up on 2.19 million shares . An exclusive, brand-new Motley Fool report reveals the company we’re calling OPEC’s Worst Nightmare . Just click HERE to uncover the name of this industry-leading stock… and join Buffett in his quest for a veritable LANDSLIDE of profits! Fool contributor David Smith owns shares of Chesapeake Energy and BP p.l.c. (ADR). The Motley Fool recommends Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (ADR). The Motley Fool has the following options: long January 2014 $30 calls on Chesapeake Energy. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days . We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy . Continue reading

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Financing Agricultural Growth In Africa

Editor’s Note: This article is part of a series by the Financial Times’ This Is Africa publication on realizing Africa’s agricultural potential, in partnership with the Rockefeller Foundation . The Skoll World Forum is a proud media partner for the initiative, and you can find the whole series here . Adrienne Klasa is a journalist currently based in London, with a particular interest in the intersection between politics, business and international currents in sub-Saharan Africa. Adam Robert Green is a senior reporter at This is Africa, focusing on trade and investment, development policy, energy and social service delivery. After years of neglect, banks, private equity funds and microfinance institutions are bringing capital to African agriculture Africa’s agriculture sector has struggled to access the financing it needs for sustained growth. In part, a perceived combination of high risk and modest returns – as well as the costs of extending traditional banking infrastructures in rural areas – has deterred many banks and financial institutions. “There can be failures in critical infrastructure such as inadequate cold storage facilities, unexpected disruptions in commodities trading, lack of adequate feeder roads to production areas, inadequate dry storage facilities, and congested ports prohibiting the export or import of products on time,” says Chomba Sindazi, director of Standard Chartered’s solutions structuring team for Africa. “And there can also be delays in the supply of critical inputs such as fertilisers, seed and fuel because of difficulties in getting goods to market. This is a particular problem in landlocked countries where it can sometimes take as long as four months to get the inputs to the required areas.” Without tackling these constraints, and their knock-on effect on lending, talk of Africa’s green revolution is premature. But solutions are emerging at last, as banks, NGOs, micro-lenders, governments and investment funds make inroads into the continent, bringing much-needed capital to bear. For large banks, Africa’s rural sector was long seen as a problem. Just 10 percent of Africans with only primary-level education – which is the majority of those in rural agriculture – have a bank account, rising to 55 percent for those with a post-secondary qualification. But rather than writing off this population, forward-thinking banks have sought to find new vocabularies to speak to them. Togo-based Ecobank has proven popular for its simplified language and procedures, which are more accessible to a wider range of customers than global banks. Standard Bank, which has operations in nearly 70 countries worldwide, has also reviewed processes to suit the kinds of financial information more commonly found in the informal and small-scale sector. It has also broadened its range of services to include technical expertise for lendees. The combination of lending and advisory services is critical, helping the bank protect its portfolio, and helping customers gain credit and repayment track records. Standard Chartered shows the same trend. Instead of looking to traditional collateral, Standard Chartered uses the value of the commodity being financed as collateral for input financing – as opposed to conventional mechanisms where collateral is secured through physical assets and balance sheets. According to Mr Chomba: “Risks associated with the cultivation of a range of soft commodities are mitigated through a customised multi-peril insurance policy, and operational issues are addressed through physical inspection and regular reporting by a team of independent specialised contract managers and insurance companies.” The arrival of major banks bodes well for the efficiency of the sector overall. “Banks are interested in investing in businesses and entrepreneurs that are going to make money and are going to pay them back – either interest or return on some form of an equity. As businesses that are profitable come into the agricultural value chains, that is going to bring in the financing that will support those businesses,” says Gary Toenniessen, managing director at The Rockefeller Foundation. Taking equity Equity financing provides an interesting – and fast-growing – source of capital. According to the Emerging Markets Private Equity Association, total private equity capital raised for sub-Saharan Africa in 2012 was $1.4bn. Agribusiness is proving one of the primary draws. The Carlyle Group, one of the world’s largest private equity firms, made its first Africa play late last year, as part of a consortium that included Pembani Remgro Infrastructure Fund and Standard Chartered Private Equity. The fund invested $210m in the Export Trading Group (ETG), a Tanzanian agribusiness with interests in 29 African countries. ETG, which manages both intra-African and global supply chains and has more than 7,000 employees, says the investment will enhance its ability to connect African smallholder farmers with consumers around the world. The capital will expand the company’s geographical reach while adding to the quantity and variety of products – which currently includes commodities ranging from sesame seeds and cashews, to rice and fertiliser. Private equity can bring broader structural changes too. A part of the Carlyle consortium investment will go towards building infrastructure to allow processing to take place in east Africa. “Typically the margins in processing are much greater than they are in pure acquisition and distribution, so part of the capital will be used to put up processing facilities around the continent,” says Marlon Chigwende, managing director and co-head of the sub-Saharan Africa buyout advisory team at Carlyle Africa. Other PE funds and investment actors are also showing a strong interest in African agribusiness. Phatisa’s African Agriculture Fund, which focuses on small and medium-sized enterprises, signed its first deal in 2012, backing Cameroon’s West End Farms. The same year, Morgan Stanley Alternative Investment Partners and Capitalworks bought out South Africa’s Rhodes Food Group. But growing the base of PE capital available to the region will take time, according to Mr Chigwende. “FDI remains a very important component of the LP structure base in a lot of the funds, they are the majority of the capital. And so I think as an industry what we need to do is attract more non-DFI international capital to the region,” he says. “I think that is a process of education. There are a lot of LPs that are increasingly looking at the region.” Micro-lending So far so good for bigger players. There is always a scale bias in financial access, with lending models becoming less accessible as you move to smaller actors – in agriculture as well as other sectors. But the microfinance movement is playing a useful role at the base of the pyramid. Set up in 1999, The Hunger Project’s Microfinance Programme is a training, savings and credit scheme that focuses predominantly on the economic empowerment of women – a vital constituency, according to Lawson Lartego Late, director of the economic development unit at Care USA, a charity. “Agriculture has been quite gender-blinded. Women were not taken into account, they were invisible in the agricultural supply chain. But more and more, people are realising that women do most of the work. More than 70 percent of the labour is done by women.” When it comes to finance, we need to apply a gender lens, says Mr Late. “When you look at how people get access to financial services, especially here in Africa, agriculture is underserved. But for people who get access, they tend to be mostly male. When it comes to property rights, many women do not have these kinds of assets.” NGOs are not the only ones interested in providing micro-loans. Olam, for example, is providing zero interest loans to farmers as part of the commitments laid out in the Singapore-based company’s Livelihood Charter. According to Chris Brett, global head of corporate responsibility and sustainability at Olam, the company has provided $118.6m in micro-financing and advances for crop purchases as well as longer-term asset investments. In addition, Olam’s position on the ground is an advantage, according to Mr Brett: “We can provide the cash, either through the cooperative or directly to the farmer. And because we are there, we know when it is needed and where it is going.” Local presence has also given Olam insights into the psychology of small-scale farmers. “Farmers see the value of a continued relationship rather than the short-term temptation of a one time default by selling elsewhere,” he says. Still, Mr Brett concedes that defaulting may simply be a question of needing cash fast in resource-deprived areas. Clustering into cooperatives, however, helps mitigate these risks, not only by making farmers dependent on each other and therefore less likely to default on a group, but also giving them greater negotiating strength. “[Farmers] are also less likely to go against their peers and initiate transactions elsewhere or default on a payment, particularly if the microfinance has been channelled through the co-op itself,” he says. Public-private finance partnerships are also leveraging funds to the continent’s agricultural sector. Grow Africa, launched in 2011 by the African Union Commission, the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (Nepad) and the World Economic Forum, is a coordinating body for public-private initiatives backing agricultural growth. According to the initiative, 2012 witnessed a historic shift in the quality and quantity of private sector engagement, with companies announcing more than $3.5bn of planned investment in agriculture across countries supported by the platform. A business mindset Whether it is traditional bank lending or private equity, and from major agribusiness to microfinance, one theme stands out – a change in mindset is needed, in which African agriculture is seen as a business opportunity, not a charity sector. “What we have seen is a shift towards agricultural development as an engine of economic growth so that agriculture can provide the resources for other sectors as well – for education, for health, for overall advancement,” says Mr Toenniessen at The Rockefeller Foundation. “And that requires private sector involvement to a much greater degree. If all you are trying to do is provide food relief, then that goes through governments and UN agencies. But if you really want economic growth then you need a private sector that is working across the agricultural value chain.” Wiebe Boer, chief executive officer of the Tony Elumelu Foundation, concurs. “My first engagement with agricultural development was in 2007, when I was part of a team at McKinsey working on developing the national strategy of Kenya. Agriculture was one of the six sectors we chose to focus on. Nobody else on the team wanted to touch agriculture, because they thought it was not interesting, it was not sexy. So I took on the sector.” Back then, he recalls, the assumption was that agriculture was a development sector drawing in government and donor money. Fast forward six years and all that has changed. “If you were doing an agricultural strategy now, the primary focus would be getting investors in, domestic or foreign, whether for large or small-scale agriculture, and then the government role is more unlocking, providing incentives etcetera. Completely different.” The tools to finance agriculture in Africa have expanded and multiplied in recent years. Still, despite this progress, the sector’s fundamental insecurity remains an obstacle that will require more than funding mechanisms to overcome, according to Mr Sindazi of Standard Bank. “The risks in the sector are so high that it is difficult to predict which investments will fail and which ones will succeed,” he says. But as focus on agricultural development in Africa continues to grow, so does the expertise and the range of risk taken on across project portfolios. Despite his caution, Mr Sindazi concludes that concrete steps can be taken to mitigate risks to lenders and keep funds flowing to where they are needed in the sector. Such steps include “the use of innovative funding structures that hinge on: securing a solid off take before we fund; using a team of specialist contract managers to manage the farmers and crop growing; using appropriate insurance policies that help to offset most of the perils associated with farming; and rigorous due diligence. The monitoring and control provided by a team of back-office experts provides the comfort required to continue the provision of funding to the agricultural sector.” Enabling environment Governance looms large in all this. Agricultural and finance ministries are critical to creating the enabling conditions for agribusiness to grow. In 2003, African governments pledged to spend 10 percent of national budgets on agriculture under the terms of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme. But for finance ministries, the challenge is one of prioritisation. With so many demands on the public purse, each ministry – be it health, education or agriculture – must pitch for funds. Robert Sichinga, agricultural minister for Zambia, says: “Personalities and relationships between individual [ministers] are important in how the two ministers work together. But I need to convince the minister beyond my personal relationship. I need to know he will understand where I am coming from.” But Maria Kiwanuka, minister of finance for Uganda, points out that the agriculture sector not only benefits from direct funding but also from other areas of public spending which improve the public goods environment. Strictly speaking, only 3 percent of Uganda’s budget goes to agriculture. But, she says, when factoring in additional funding on rural infrastructure, it is more like 12 percent. “About 30 percent of our budget goes into infrastructure, which is energy and roads. But a lot of that is directed towards rural areas, rural roads and rural electrification which helps agriculture,” says Ms Kiwanuka. “That is the reason why we are doing our feeder roads, so that inputs can go in easier, and crops and other outputs can come out easier. And by rolling electrification up-country, it means that agro-processing plants can be set up around the country and not just concentrated in the capital city and the other main towns.” With a stable policy environment and the growth of a diverse range of financial actors, Africa’s agriculture sector could provide a shot in the arm for the continent’s growth trajectory. Continue reading

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Middle East, North American Buyers Drive European Property Investment Market

Middle East and North American investors are the major drivers of increased activity in the European commercial real estate market and buyers from outside the region now account for more than a quarter of all transactions in H1 2013, according to the latest data by CBRE, the global real estate consulting firm. Investors from the Middle East increased investment activity, accounting for nine per cent of the entire market and 21 per cent of cross-border transactions in H1 2013. Capital from the Middle East is generally institutional in nature, with nearly half of the total coming from the region’s sovereign wealth funds. Transactions from Middle Eastern buyers show a strong bias towards London (nearly 50 per cent of the total) and offices, although there were several large retail properties among the purchases made. “London remains the destination of choice for foreign investors due to its solid growth potential and its status as a global financial hub, alongside its stable political environment and a transparent legal system, which are key for international and regional buyers alike,” commented Nick Maclean, Managing Director, CBRE Middle East. Buyers from North America accounted for a steadily increasing share of the market (13 per cent of the entire market and 24 per cent of cross-border transactions in H1 2013). This could have a significant effect on the dynamics of the property market as US investors, which make up the vast majority of activity, typically look at a more diverse range of markets. The total value of commercial real estate investment activity in Europe continued to grow in Q2 2013 at six per cent higher than the total for Q1 2013. The €32.6 billion recorded over the quarter shows a 22 per cent increase on the same quarter last year and is the highest Q2 total since 2007 (before the financial crisis). The level of cross-border investment in Europe continues to increase, both in absolute terms and as a proportion of the market as a whole. Over the first half of 2013, foreign buyers accounted for 44 per cent of all transactions (by value) compared to 40 per cent in the second half of 2012. A significant change has developed in the sources of cross-border real estate investment, with intra-European investment (where the buyer is from another European country) accounting for just 16 per cent of transactions in H1 2013. This percentage had been holding steady at around 20 per cent of the market throughout 2011 and 2012. Investment capital from outside Europe is becoming increasingly important to the market and now accounts for 28 per cent of all transactions in H1 2013 (from 19 per cent in H2 2012). Even within this group of non-European investors there has been a marked change in the sources of capital. Within Europe, German investors remain the largest group of cross-border buyers; the open-ended funds continuing to be active buyers around Europe with acquisitions totaling well over €1 billion in H1 2013. The German ‘Spezial’ funds are also active, but their acquisitions have been strongly focused on Germany in the first half of this year, stated the CBRE report. The long-term trends in buyer mix that have been evolving since the financial crisis have continued into 2013. Most notable of these is the growth in direct institutional investment in real estate, which has increased steadily over the last six years from nine per cent in 2007 to 26 per cent of the total in H1 2013. An increase in activity by sovereign wealth funds has been responsible for some of this investment, but both pension funds and insurance companies are far more active than was the case before the financial crisis. H1 2013 also saw a significant share of large transactions, with 134 of €100 million or more recorded over the period, between them accounting for 47 per cent of the total turnover of the market. It is a feature of the market recovery that as total investment activity has increased so too has the proportion that has been made up of large (€100 million plus) transactions. At the low point in market activity (H1 2009), when commercial real estate transactions totaling just €26.5 billion were completed in the first of the year, these large transactions accounted for 28 per cent of the total. Jonathan Hull, Head of EMEA Capital Markets, CBRE, added, “The increase in the proportion of the market comprised by large transactions coincides with an increase in the amount of non-European capital flowing into the market. It has long been the case that buyers from outside the region are focused on larger than average assets and H1 2013 was no exception.” Continue reading

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