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UK home owners less optimistic about property prices, poll suggests

Optimism in the UK property market has slowed down, with fewer home owners anticipating an increase in the value of their home over the next 12 months, a new survey shows. Just under half, 49%, believe their home will increase in value over the next year compared to 54% in January and 55% a year ago. A further 49% anticipate that the value will stay the same whilst 2% believe it will decrease. The survey from Clydesdale and Yorkshire Banks also shows that Londoners are the most optimistic with 73% anticipating an increase in the value of their home, followed by 62% of those in the South East and 56% of those in the East. In sharp contrast 11% of those surveyed in the North East expect the value of their home to decrease, a view shared by 6% in the North West and Scotland. Those living in the South East and London are the most upbeat about rising property prices with 67% in the South East and 64% in London citing this as the main reason for anticipating an increase in the value of their home. In contrast only 37% of those in the North West share this view. The report suggests that the key factor for those who think their home will increase in price is rising property prices as well as the positive impact of the economic recovery. ‘It has been positive to see confidence returning to the property market however our latest research has shown that this is levelling out with a drop in the number of people who believe their home will increase in value over the next year,’ said Steve Fletcher, director of retail banking. ‘There are still a number of property hot spots, such as London and the South East, where property prices are rising and we anticipate that this will continue however this is not mirrored across the UK as a whole,’ he pointed out. He added that the Banks have a range of competitive mortgages including a two year fixed, fee offer product up to 75% LTV at 2.09% and a five year fixed, fee offer product up to 75% LTV at 2.89%, both for re-mortgage applications above £75,000. Continue reading

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Prime country house values in UK fall in second quarter of year

Average prime country house values in the UK increased by just 0.9% between April and June and annual growth is down to 2.3%, the lowest for two years, according to a new analysis report. It is an indication that any expectations of a post-election price jump in the prime market were unfounded, says the report from real estate firm Knight Frank. The report points out that one of the key reasons price growth remains subdued, despite the election of a majority government and the removal of the threat of a mansion tax, is the fact that the prime market is still absorbing the recent changes to stamp duty. The change, which came into effect in December, has resulted in higher purchase costs for properties worth more than £1.1 million. Knight Frank says there is anecdotal evidence to suggest that some buyers are factoring the increased cost into offers, resulting in some price adjustments. ‘Additionally, while there was a release of pent-up demand in the weeks immediately following the vote as buyers who had adopted a wait and see approach prior to the election returned to the market, rising stock levels, which peaked to their highest level all year in May, helped to mitigate any significant jump in property values,’ said Oliver Knight of the firm’s residential research team. He also pointed out that the greater political certainty afforded by the election result means there is a more positive outlook for the residential property market as a whole. ‘Interest rates remain at record low levels, economic growth is steady and mortgage rates are competitive,’ he added. Meanwhile, during the second quarter of the year prime city markets continued to outperform more rural locations, with notable price growth in Bath, Bristol and Winchester among others. Prime urban property markets are now, on average, 2% above their 2007 peak, while neighbouring village and rural locations remain 13.2% below peak levels. Continue reading

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UK prices down 0.2% in June, market sees smallest annual growth since 2013

UK house prices fell by 0.2% in June which meant that annual house price growth moderated to 3.3% from 4.6% in May, according to the latest index report. This takes the average price of a home to £194,258, according to the monthly index from lender Nationwide. The data also shows that in the second quarter prices increased by 1% and are up 4.1% compared to the same quarter in 2014. Eleven of the thirteen UK regions covered in the index saw a slowdown in the annual rate of growth in the second quarter of the year and it is the smallest annual rate of increase for two years. However, most parts of the country continued to see annual house price gains apart from Wales and Scotland which recorded small declines. The North remained static while Northern Ireland and London have the highest annual growth. Indeed, Northern Ireland overtook London to become the strongest performing region, with average prices up 8% year on year but prices remain around 45% below their 2007 peak. London saw a further softening in annual price growth to 7.3%, compared with 12.7% in the first quarter of the year. The Outer Metropolitan area followed closely behind, with annual price growth of 6.8%. The North was the weakest performing English region, with prices essentially unchanged compared with the same period a year ago. Wales saw a 0.8% year on year fall in average prices, similar to the previous quarter while Scotland was weakest performing region with a 1% fall in prices. ‘This maintains the gradual downward trend that has been in evidence since the middle of 2014,’ said Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist, but he added that house price growth continues to outpace earnings. He also pointed out that the slowdown in house price growth is not confined to, nor does it appear to be driven primarily by, developments in London. In quarter on quarter terms, London has continued to see price growth at or above the rate in the UK overall over the past three quarters, while the annual rate of price growth in the capital remains the second highest in the country. He believes that given the gap between population growth and rates of house building, housing stock is likely to be used increasingly intensively until building activity catches up. ‘There are signs that this has been occurring, with the number of vacant properties trending down since 2008, though council tax changes in 2013 impacted reporting and probably overstate the decline in the last two years,’ Gardner explained. He added that the strong relationship between supply constraints and vacancy rates is clearly visible at the regional level. ‘As you might expect, regions where affordability is more stretched see far fewer vacancies. For example, in London, the UK region where affordability is most stretched, only 1.7% of the housing stock was vacant in 2014, around half the 3.5% rate prevailing in the North of England,’ said Gardner. ‘Given… Continue reading

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