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UK architects report that private housing sector workload is falling
Overall workload for architects in the UK is rising but the private housing sector workload has fallen, according to the latest data from the Royal Institute of British Architecture (RIBA). Practices have reported that their overall workload is growing at an annual rate of 8% and that current staffing levels are 6% higher than they were a year ago. All regions in the UK returned positive balance figures, with practices in the North of England the most optimistic with a balance figure of +48 and practices of all sizes remain upbeat about work prospects. But, after a record high forecast in June, July 2015 saw a significant note of caution with the RIBA Future Trends Workload Index falling sharply to +22, down from +44. The private housing sector workload forecast fell to +23 in July 2015 from +39 in June while the commercial sector workload forecast saw a moderate fall down to +13 in July 2015 from +19 in June. The data also shows that the public sector workload forecast dipped slightly to -1 in July from +2 in June with practices expecting little medium term change in public sector expenditure levels within the built environment. The RIBA Future Trends Staffing Index also declined +12 in July from +20 in June, however, the employment market for salaried architects remains very positive and 98% of respondents expected their staffing levels either to increase or to stay the same over the next few months. Small and medium sized practices are still confident about increasing their staffing levels with balance figures of +6 and +42 respectively. However, large practices are more likely to be actively appointing new staff, with a balance figure of +67. ‘Despite the fall in our headline index, it is important to state that our forecast remains firmly in positive territory. This drop seems largely to have been driven by some loss of confidence by our practices in the medium term outlook for work in the private housing sector, especially in London and the South of England,’ said RIBA executive director members Adrian Dobson. ‘Private housing has been the main driver of increases in architects’ workloads in the last couple of years, so this is a development that we will be monitoring closely in the next few months. It is too early to say if this is a definitive trend and the crucial autumn period will give a better indication of the prevailing sentiment,’ he explained. ‘Our participating practices continue to suggest that the majority of firms are seeing solid growth in workloads, though there is significant pressure on fee levels and profit margins on projects typically remain tight, constraining salary levels,’ he added. He pointed out that future Bank of England interest rate rises may yet dampen activity in the key private housing and commercial sectors. But with the current low inflation environment looking set to continue this seems to remain a relatively distant prospect at present. The overall economic environment for architects… Continue reading
Recovery in property sales in Spain proving sustainable, latest data suggests
Homes sales in Spain are showing strong growth, up by 13.9% in the second quarter of this year following a rise of 4.4% in the first quarter, according to the latest data from the Ministry of Public Works. It is the six quarter in a row when sales have increased year on year, suggesting that the recovery in the Spanish real estate market is being sustained. It is also the second best quarter since 2010. However, the market still has some way to go to its pre-crisis level as sales are 58% lower than the peak of 2006. A breakdown of the figures shows that some 12.5% of sales were for new homes and sales increased in 14 regions, as well as in the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla, and fell in three. The biggest increases were in La Rioja with growth of 44.2%, Ceuta and Melilla at 33.9%, the Balearic Islands at 30.1%, Cantabria at 29.4% and Murcia at 25.7%. Sales fell by 14.7% in Navarra, by 1.5% in Extremadura and by 0.6% in the Basque Country. Overseas buyers living in Spain accounted for 17.2% of sales while sales to non-resident foreigners amounted to 5%. Alicante had the highest number of foreign buyers at 4,141, Málaga 2,517, Barcelona 1,470, Madrid 1,173 and Tenerife 1,099. The sustained recovery is also confirmed in the latest figures from the General Council of Notaires, showing that the property market grew by 11% in July compared to the same month in 2014. The data shows that the Spanish property market has expanded in nine of the last 12 months with only January and February seeing sales fall. According to Mark Stucklin, of Spanish Property Insight one of the main factors behind rising home sales is easier, cheaper mortgage credit. There were 17,450 new mortgages signed in July, up 27% on the same month last year, taking the number of sales involving mortgage financing to 46%, highest level since the boom years in the middle of the previous decade. Prices area also starting to recover. The data from the official house price index published by the National Institute of Statistics shows that they rose by 4% over the 12 months to the second quarter of 2015. The Balearics saw the biggest rise in prices with growth of 7.3%, driven by a 7.8% rise in new build prices and a 7.4% rise in resale prices. Indeed, new and resale house prices have been rising since the second quarter of last year, and the trend appears to be picking up speed for both new and resale properties. But figures from the Notaries suggest that prices are not yet in recovery mode. The data from them shows prices down by 0.3% in the second quarter of the year. But Stucklin believes that there are reasons to be sceptical about the index. Compared to 2007, Spanish house prices are down 33%, according to the index with resale prices down 40% and new build… Continue reading
House prices growth flattens in Sydney, latest index shows
House price growth in Sydney has flattened and values in three other Australian capital cities fell in September, according to the latest residential index. Overall there was a 0.9% rise in capital city property prices over the month and a 4% rise in the September quarter, the CoreLogic RP Data home value index shows. However, across the capital cities, the month on month results ranged from a 2.4% rise in Melbourne to a 1.9% fall in Hobart while Sydney, posted a month on month gain of just 0.1% in September. During the September quarter, half of Australia’s capital cities posted a decline in dwelling values with Hobart down 2% over the three months. In Adelaide values slipped by 1.6%, in Perth they fell by 0.7% and Canberra values were down 0.4%. The most substantial capital gains over the quarter were achieved in Melbourne where dwelling values were up by 7.4% followed by Sydney at 4.6 %, Brisbane at 1.9% and Darwin up by 0.4%. Head of research Tim Lawless pointed out that the flat growth rate in Sydney comes after dwelling values increased by 16.7% over the past 12 months and they are 49.6% higher over the growth cycle to date. ‘The slower month on month reading across the Sydney market comes at a time when auction clearance rates have slipped to the low 70% range from week to week and the number of advertised properties has risen,’ said Lawless. ‘Vendors are still enjoying strong selling conditions, but it looks like buyers are slowly regaining some leverage in what has been a very hot market. Meanwhile, while half of Australia’s capital cities have seen values rise over the past quarter and year, the other half did not fare as well,’ he added. In Darwin, dwelling values fell by 3.9% over the 12 months to the end of September, while in Perth values were 0.9% lower over the year. Adelaide home values dropped by 0.3% and Hobart values are 0.2% lower. Weakening labour markets, slower population growth and less demand for housing is placing downwards pressure on prices to differing degrees across these markets, according to Lawless. Looking at which sector of the housing market is driving the highest capital gains, across the combined capital cities it has been the most expensive quartile of the market where growth has been the most substantial. Across the combined capitals, the top quartile of dwellings based on value has recorded growth of 12.3% over the past 12 months, while the most affordable end of the market has recorded a lower growth rate of 8.5%. ‘This trend holds true across Sydney and Melbourne, however in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth it is actually the most affordable end of the housing market that has recorded the best results,’ Lawless said. CoreLogic's analysis of houses versus apartments reveals some substantial differences in market performances across the capital cities. At a capital city level over the quarter, the results don’t show a great deal of difference with… Continue reading
