Tag Archives: investment
A year of above average leasing predicted for central London office market
The central London office market is set to experience another year of above average leasing and investment activity in 2016, according to a new report. However, some 22 million square feet of space could be needed in the next five years, says the analysis from international real estate advisor Savills. Low vacancy rates will help prime rents to climb, although a lack of new buildings capable of demanding the highest rents is likely to lead to topmost rents stabilising over the course of the year, the report explains. Whilst the gap between average prime City and West End rents continues to widen at £74.15 per square feet and £106.98 per square feet respectively, elsewhere there has been a marked convergence of rents on average Grade A/B office accommodation across Central London. This is likely to mean less movement of occupiers from West to East London or from core to fringe locations. Longer term, Savills predicts that population and economic growth, combined with lease expiries and building obsolescence, could lead to 22 million square feet of additional space being required in London over the next five years. Part of this demand will be serviced by four consecutive years of above average levels of completions in both the City and West End markets, although 21% of space in the City has been pre-let, and 15% in the West End. In the investment market, non-domestic investors attracted by London office’s relative stability and strong comparative returns will continue to drive demand, with 2016 set to be above average in terms of investment volumes. Despite stock market volatility and concerns over a slowdown in the Chinese economy those international investors who have been canvassed continue to identity London as a core focus for their future direct investment activity, with Savills predicting further capital flows from the Middle East, China and North America. Notwithstanding the continued appetite from overseas, Savills expects the market to consolidate around an appetite for core plus and value-add opportunities and therefore a continued sharpening of prime yields, currently at 3% in the City and 4% in the West End, is unlikely to continue. Volumes may well fall as the market becomes more hesitant in the lead up to the outcome of a Brexit referendum. ‘We predict that the Central London office markets will see above average take-up, rental growth and investment volumes in 2016, but these increases will not be as notable as they have been in recent years,’ said Mat Oakley, head of commercial research at Savills. ‘We don’t foresee that an increase in the Bank of England’s base rate will have an impact on yields whilst rents continue to rise. As with the investment market, the leasing market may slow due to external factors such as further ripples from China’s slowdown and a drop in business confidence in anticipation of a Brexit referendum,’ he added. Continue reading
London properties under £2 million done better than prime sector, analysis shows
Properties in London under £2 million outperformed the rest of the prime London property market in the second half of 2015, continuing a trend of recent years, the latest analysis shows. In particular, properties worth less than £1 million have grown by more than any other price bracket, according to the latest London residential review from real estate firm Knight Frank. The analysis says that this is because it is a market that is less exposed to regulatory change. The series of tax changes in recent years that affect the prime London market adds £30,000 to the current stamp duty rate for a second home buyer of a £1 million property, though this sum would be matched by house price inflation in less than a year at current growth rates. It is also a market that is less exposed to global economic volatility and more closely aligned with the performance of the mainstream market, where demand continues to outstrip supply on the back of a London population forecast to grow by more than 100,000 every year for the next decade. Indeed, the highest growth has largely been outside the higher price brackets of prime areas of central London over the last 20 years. The analysis report explains that changes to stamp duty rates in December 2014 raised questions around the viability of a system that has dampened transaction levels and lowered the tax take in London. The new rules mean that buyers will pay £153,750 in stamp duty for a property worth £2 million versus to £100,000 before the change. The result is that £1 million plus transactions in London in the first seven months of this year fell 25% compared to the same period in 2014. A Knight Frank analysis of sales volumes across London local authorities shows the biggest impact has been felt in prime central London. Between January and July this year, the volume of transactions fell 28.6% in the borough of Westminster compared to 2014. The drop was 27.5% in Kensington and Chelsea and 27.9% in Tower Hamlets, which includes the Canary Wharf district. Accordingly, the total value of transactions in central London has fallen disproportionately. The report also explains that while a progressively structured tax means more first time buyers and home movers will pay less when they buy a home and there is every indication policymakers are now turning their attention to supply, making sure there are enough new homes to meet demand across London and the rest of the country, the volume of sales only rose in three out of London’s 32 boroughs between January and July 2105 and the value of transactions only rose in 11 boroughs. As a result, the stamp duty tax take was down 8.7% across London, which included a decrease of 17.5% in Westminster, -33.8% in Tower Hamlets and -19.1% in Wandsworth. The stamp duty take only fell 1% in Kensington and Chelsea due to the impact of the higher… Continue reading
Average rents in the UK increased by almost 4% in 2015
Average UK rents increased by 3.8% in 2015 despite a small seasonal dip of 0.2% in December, according to the latest index to be published. Housing shortages across the country means that rental increases have outpaced wages in many parts and three bedroom properties have seen the fastest rent rises, according to the Landbay Rental Index. This takes the average rent to £1,280 per month, with the highest rents found in London at £2,047, followed by the South East at £1,019 and then a big drop to the East of England at £863. Every region has seen rents up year on year. This was led by Northern Ireland with rents up 6.7% compared to 2014, followed by the East of England up 5.6%, Scotland up 4.5%, the West Midlands up 4.4%, the South West up 4.1% and London up 4%. The South East saw annual growth of 3.7%, followed by the East Midlands and Wales, both at 3%, then Yorkshire and the Humber at 2.1%, the North East 1.8%, and the North West at 0.9%. Compared to 2014, three bedroom properties have seen the biggest increase in the average rental price, up 5.2% to £1,484 in 2015 suggesting that family homes and properties for sharers are in highest demand. The average rent for a one bedroom home has climbed 3.2% to £1,042, a two bedroom home by 3.9% to £1,243, and above three bedrooms by 1.5% to £2,166. Commuter hotspots surrounding London were amongst the country’s top risers in rental prices. Luton with a rise of 11.1%, Medway up 8.8% and Thurrock up 7.3 were in the top five for rent price increases during 2015 when comparing rents from December 2014 to December 2015, a sign that many working in the capital are priced out from living there. With counties to the North, East and South of London all showing higher than average increases in rent prices during 2015, an evident ripple effect is appearing in southern parts of England, the index report suggests. ‘Despite a small seasonal dip towards the end of the year, rents rose significantly ahead of wages in 2015,’ said John Goodall, chief executive officer of Landbay. ‘Rents often track wages as consumers with more pay compete for the most desirable rental properties, but the fact that rents are outpacing wages is a clear sign of the shortage in properties to rent as large parts of the UK face an acute housing shortage. This trend is clear in London and the South East, along with large parts of the East Midlands and East Anglia, and it is most evident for three bedroom properties,’ he explained. ‘Based on its recent policy changes for the private rental sector such as the new stamp duty surcharge and changes to tax relief on mortgage interest, the Government seems intent on weeding out amateurs from the ranks of new buy to let investors. If it is successful, our rental index suggests that… Continue reading
