Tag Archives: investment
UK property prices broadly stable with policy changes and a potential EU vote on horizon
Average UK house prices rose by 0.3% in January, and are up 4.4% year on year, remaining broadly stable, according to the latest analysis report. Prime central London prices rose by 0.1% last month to take annual growth to 1.2% while prime central London rents dipped by 0.3%, says the report from real estate firm Knight Frank. The data also shows that price growth for prime property in some regional hubs continues to outperform the wider prime country house market. The stability in UK property prices is likely to be underpinned by a further period of ultra-low interest rates and a solid, although slowing, economic recovery but the report warns that the political outlook is less clear as an European Union referendum draws closer. Grainne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, pointed out that interest rates being left unchanged by the Bank of England for the 83rd consecutive month in February was not a surprise. ‘But the data released by the Bank when announcing its decision has led economists and markets to change their expectations about when rates may start to rise. Whereas many had forecast a rise around the middle of the year, the verdict is now that rates are on hold until the final quarter of the year, if not 2018,’ she said. ‘This change was prompted by the Bank’s forecasts, showing muted inflation and wage growth in the coming years as well as a downgrade in forecast GDP growth. The central bank now expects 2.2% GDP growth this year, instead of 2.5%. The slower growth is attributed to global economic conditions, not least the effect lower oil prices are having on many economies around the world,’ she explained. ‘However, senior bank officials were clear that the UK economy was still experiencing a solid recovery and that the fall in oil prices was a net good for UK consumers, helping boost consumption and therefore wage growth,’ she added. Households expect prices to continue rising this year according to the latest House Price Sentiment Index (HPSI) from Knight Frank and Markit Economics. Any reading above 50 on this index, which is a bellwether for house prices, suggests prices are rising, or are set to rise. The future index has now been above 50 for 35 consecutive months. However, Gilmore also said that the outlook for 2016 must take into account the policy changes and political decisions which will be made this year, not least another change to the stamp duty regime in April, the Mayoral Elections in London in May and a possible decision on whether the UK should stay in the European Union. ‘As seen following the stamp duty changes in December 2014, and last year’s General Election, the market can adjust to political and policy changes, but periods of uncertainty can take their own toll on market activity,’ she added. While prime central London property prices edged up by 0.1% in January, taking the annual increase to 1.2%, a breakdown… Continue reading
Home ownership still out of reach for many in UK due to buying costs
Home ownership in UK is still out of reach for many would be buyers as new research shows that the average first time buyers will have paid over £52,000 in rent. Indeed, a first time buyer purchasing their first house this year will have spent £52,900 on rent by the time they get on the first rung of the ladder, and future first time buyer can expect to spend 22%. The data compiled by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) for the Association of Residential Letting Agents (ARLA) also shows that the average first time buyer in England in 2016 will have spent 16.4% of their total lifetime earnings on rent for all the years they were a tenant. Those buying a property for the first time this year in the North East will have spent £31,300 on rent, the lowest amount in England. Whereas in London, the average amount spent is more than double that, at £68,300. The South East is the only region other than London where the total lifetime rent spent is above the English average with the total rent expenditure equating to £55,900. Last year alone on average people in the UK spent 22% of their wages on rent, increasing to 30% in London. Those living in the East enjoyed the most affordable rents due to relatively high earnings in the region, yet rent still accounted for 18.9% of their disposable income. People that move out of their family home at the age of 18, will typically rent for 13 years before buying their first property. The report found those leaving home and starting to rent this year, will spend an average of £64,400 before they are able to buy their first property, some 22% more than current first time buyers getting on the housing ladder this year will be spending. Those leaving home and starting to live independently in London will continue to be worse off, as they will spend an average of £91,500 on rent before they can buy their first home, some £23,100 more than those buying in the capital this year. ‘The rising cost of rent in this country is a huge issue, and is preventing tenants from being able to save to buy a home. Our Cost of Renting report reveals that tenants are already spending a significant proportion of their income on rent, and therefore struggling to save any money,’ said David Cox, ARLA managing director. ‘However, as house price affordability worsens and interest rates start rising, more pressure will be put on renting with weekly rent likely to rise, so home ownership will remain out of reach for many,’ he pointed out. ‘Rents are becoming alarmingly unaffordable due to the lack of available housing; the North-South divide we’re currently seeing in the UK is a clear illustration of this. The London rental market is… Continue reading
Home prices set to rise 5.4% in the United States in 2016
Home prices across the United States, including distressed sales, increased year on year by 6.3% in December 2015 and increased month on month by 0.8%, the latest index shows. And forecast data from the CoreLogic House Price Index also indicates that home prices are set to rise by 5.4% this year. ‘Nationally, home prices have been rising at a 5% to 6% annual rate for more than a year,’ said Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. However, he added that local market growth can vary substantially from that. For example, some metropolitan areas have had double digit appreciation, such as Denver and Naples, Florida, while others have had price declines, like New Orleans and Rochester, New York. ‘Higher property valuations appear to be driving up single-family construction as we head into the spring. Additional housing stock, especially in urban centres on the coasts such as San Francisco, could help to temper home price growth in the longer term,’ said Anand Nallathambi, president and chief executive officer of CoreLogic. ‘In the short and medium term, local markets with strong employment growth are likely to experience a continued rise in home sales and price growth well above the US average,’ he added. Meanwhile, research from real estate firm Zillow shows that buyers in Boston, New York, and Washington, D.C. have to stay in a home for at least three years to break even on a home purchase, and buyers in the Bay Area would have to stay nearly that long to make buying financially advantageous. In general, Americans can break even on a home purchase in less than two years in 70% of US metros and the firm says that this is thanks to low interest rates, healthy home value forecasts, and the relatively fast pace of rents in recent years. The Breakeven Horizon index shows that on average you don't need to plan on living in a home for even two years to make purchasing the home more financially advantageous than renting it over the same time period. Among large housing markets, the Breakeven Horizon is longest in Washington, D.C. at 4.5 years and shortest in Dallas at 1.3 years. Around the country over the last year, the Breakeven Horizon quickened in most of the Midwest and Southeast as well as in the Northeast corridor from New York to Boston. The Horizon stretched longer in Florida, Northern California, and in the Northeast from Virginia Beach to Philadelphia, but it remained clear that financially, it's still a better deal to buy a home than rent it, assuming you're planning to stay in the home for at least a couple years. ‘Even with record high rents in places like San Jose, Boston and Washington, D.C., putting off a home purchase might be the best financial decision for a young person who has saved enough for a down payment, depending on how long they intend to stay in their jobs and homes,’ said Zillow chief economist Svenja… Continue reading
