Tag Archives: housing
Income producing potential of UK property set to top the agenda for investors in 2016
The income producing potential of various property asset classes is expected to be top of investors’ agendas in 2016, according to a new outlook analysis report. Average UK house prices are set to rise 5% in 2016, but the speed and timing of interest rate rises will dictate the pace and sustainability of price growth, according to the predictions from real estate advisors Savills. In the commercial market, average total returns on UK property investments are likely to slow to approximately 7.5% while in the agricultural market Savills has downgraded its forecasts for the next five years given recent market evidence and the short to medium term expectations for commodity prices and therefore farm profitability. The firm says that income and the ability to unlock the latent value of individual assets through active management are likely to be priorities, due to the current stage of the property cycle and the medium term prospect of interest rate rises, regulation and tax policy in the residential sector, and the outlook for commodity prices in the agricultural sector. In the commercial and residential markets Savills expects a shift towards investment in regional markets, given where recent capital growth has left yields. The referendum on membership of the European Union (EU) presents the greatest uncertainty for UK real estate in 2016/2017, according to Savills, as the outcome has potential implications for all three sectors. The prospects for a pre-referendum investment slowdown may well depend on how close polling companies believe the outcome will be, the report suggests. The report explains that annual house price growth stood at just 3.9% at the end of October, with annual housing transactions appearing to have peaked at 1.2 million per year so the forecast for 2016 is 5% for average UK house prices. It points out that stamp duty changes have left the top end of the London market looking both fully priced and fully taxed suggesting a further delay in the return to trend rates of house price growth. Meanwhile, the mainstream market is more dependent on what happens to the cost of borrowing. ‘Capacity exists for short term price growth if rate rises are delayed further, but rising interest rates will squeeze affordability, making house price growth dependent on earnings and the pace of economic growth,’ the report says. It adds that in some areas in London, for example Ealing, Acton, Greenwich, Lewisham and Waltham Forest, may buck this trend as they attract more affluent buyer groups. Attractive commuter towns will also continue to offer good medium term price growth, particularly where travel times are shortened by rail improvements. Also demand for private rented accommodation will continue to rise. The restriction in tax relief and additional 3% stamp duty charge for buy to let landlords may result in rising private rents and shift investor focus towards higher yielding sectors of the market, particularly key regional cities, it suggests. While Government policy… Continue reading
UK buyers want a return to 100% mortgages
Half of home buyers in the UK would welcome a return to 100% loan to value mortgages to jump the hurdle of not being able to save a big enough deposit, a survey has found. The poll of 2,000 people reveals that half of those who plan to buy a home within the next two years are in favour of a relaxation of the lending criteria including 100% LTV mortgages. The research by lender and mortgage broker Ocean Finance also found that buyers of all ages want to see lenders offer zero deposit mortgages again, with those aged 25 to 34 most keen. 100% LTV mortgages disappeared as part of a major overhaul of the financial market that led to the Mortgage Market Review (MMR) being introduced in April 2014. The Review, the biggest piece of mortgage regulation in a decade, tightened the rules on the size of deposit required to get a loan. It also placed responsibility on lenders to ensure borrowers only get a mortgage they can afford. In practice, the new regulations have meant that borrowers face increased scrutiny about their income and spending, and often need to save large deposits to gain approval for a mortgage. ‘Buyers would welcome a return to 100% LTVs and many lenders would like to offer them,’ said Gareth Shilton, Ocean’s spokesperson. ‘Many people trying to get on to the housing ladder struggle to get enough cash together for a deposit, then house prices rise further, and they find themselves stuck on a never-ending treadmill,’ he pointed out. ‘The Mortgage Market Review states that lenders must ensure buyers can afford a mortgage. So it’s frustrating for those buyers who are able to prove they can afford a mortgage, but can’t raise a deposit because of their rent and living costs,’ he explained. ‘It would be a brave lender who is the first to go back into the mass market with 100% LTVs, although others would no doubt follow suit,’ he added. Continue reading
Spanish home prices up 4.5% year on year in third quarter of 2015, rents also up
Residential property prices increased by 4.5% in the third quarter of 2015 compared to the same period in 2014, according to the latest data from the National Statistics Institute. The details from the housing price index means that prices have now increased for six quarters annually in a row following six years of decline and it is the highest quarterly rise since the last quarter of 2007 when growth was 5.7%, just before the global economic downturn. House prices then started falling in the second quarter of 2008 with a decline of 0.3% and continued to fall until the second quarter of 2014. A breakdown of the figures show that the price of new homes fell by 4.3% and other homes were up by 4.5% while quarter on quarter prices overall increased 0.7% which followed a strong rise of 4.1% in the second quarter of the year. In what is a sign of the universal nature of the recovery in the Spanish property market the figures show a rise in prices in almost every region in the country. Asturias and Extremadura recorded the greatest annual rates of increase, up by 2.6% and 2.4%, to 3.5% and 3.3%, respectively, while the greatest annual fall was in the Basque Country and Valencia, down by 0.9% and 0.6% to 1% and 2.1%, respectively. Quarter on quarter nine regions saw prices rise, seven recorded declines and prices remained stable in the Basque Country. The largest quarterly increase was in the Balearic Islands with growth of 3.1% and Asturias up 1.8%, while the biggest fall was in Navarra with a decline of 1.1% and Aragón down 1%. Residential rents are also rising and increased year on year in all regions in November, the first time this has happened for eight years. The data from property porta Fotocasa shows this was led by Catalonia with an annual rise of 10.6%, followed by the Balearic Islands up 7.8%, Madrid up 6.3% and La Rioja up 6%. In Castilla-La Mancha average rents increased by 0.7%, Cantabria was up 1%, the Basque Country up 1.1% and Navarra up 1.3%. Month on month rents increased by 0.5% to €7.02 per square meter per month with 11 regions seeing rises. The Balearic Islands saw a monthly rise of 1.9% and Catalonia up 1.3% while La Rioja, the Canary Islands and Cantabria all saw growth of 0.6%. But average rental prices fell by 1.2% month on month in Galicia, fell by 0.9% in the Basque Country and by 0.8% in Murcia. The data also shows that since the peak of the market in May 2007 when rents were €10.12 per square meter per month rental values have fallen by 30.7% and five regions have seen accumulated declines over 30%. The steepest decline since peak has been in Aragón where rental prices have fallen by 41.6%, followed by Cantabria down 36.1%, Castilla-La Mancha down 35.2%, Valencia down 34.5% and Murcia down 32.3%. The smallest declines from peak are in Castilla… Continue reading
