Tag Archives: housing
Economists forecast property price growth of just 1.5% in UK, fall in London
UK house prices will grow only by 1.5% in 2015 but they are set to fall by 3.6% in London before growing again but slowly over the next five years, according to economists. The report from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) is an upward revision from its previous report in January when it forecast a fall of 0.6% in prices this year. It said that the impact of December’s stamp duty changes has been felt sooner than expected, with some buyers putting cash saved towards a deposit but while expectations have been revised up it is a more subdued outlook for London. The property market in the capital continues to show signs of cooling. Average house prices in London are expected to decline by 3.6% over 2015 but the report also points out that they increased by 17.4% in 2104. Cebr continues to expect London house prices to underperform the rest of the UK this year, following years of over performance. It points out that the strength of sterling against the euro, fears of a mansion tax and hefty new stamp duty rates on high value properties have all hit housing demand from overseas buyers. In 2015, for the first time since 2009, house price growth will be stronger outside the capital than in London itself. Leading indicators such as fewer new buyer enquiries and properties taking longer to sell already point to falling prices in the capital. Outside of the capital, the decline in overseas interest in UK property will be much less strongly felt. At the same time, most home buyers have benefited from December’s stamp duty changes as well as an improving labour market which has boosted consumer spending power. The YouGov/Cebr Household Economic Activity Tracker (HEAT) shows that consumer expectations for property price growth across the UK have been picking up in recent months after declining in October, something that is feeding through into rising consumer confidence in the run-up to the general election. ‘Outside of London, the outlook for house prices this year has improved after a few months when the market appeared to be coming off the boil. December’s stamp duty changes, as well as rising household incomes, are lifting prices in many parts of the UK,’ said Nina Skero, Cebr economist and main author of the report. ‘In London, however, we expect prices to decline by 3.6%, driven by a significant weakening at the prime end of the market. A potential mansion tax, reduced overseas interest and hefty new stamp duty rates have hit demand for high value property,’ he added. Continue reading
Financial barriers preventing US home renters from buying, new research suggests
Many US home buyers can break even in less than two years if they buy a home instead of renting it, but financial barriers and preference are big factors in the decision to continue renting. A new report covering the fourth quarter of 2014 from US real estate data firm Zillow reveals that buyers break even on a home purchase in less than two years in 66% metro areas. It also says that some 20% of renters say they prefer to rent than buy with more than half, 53%, say financial limitations keep them from buying. Of renters surveyed by Zillow some 16% said they can't qualify for a home loan, 18% said they can't afford taxes, maintenance and other costs associated with home ownership, 13% said they don't have enough savings for a down payment and about a quarter said they struggle to pay their rent. According to the survey, 82% of renters are long term renters, and 57% are long term renters who have lived for a long time in the same home. Just 14% said they aren't staying long enough in the same place to buy. Zillow's survey sheds light on why some renters are not buying homes, despite historically low interest rates, prices that remain below peak levels in many areas and rising rents, however, some 20% of renters said they simply prefer to rent. ‘If the buy versus rent decision were about simple maths, we'd likely have millions more home buyers in the market, because the equation is tilted heavily in favour of buying,’ said Zillow chief economist Stan Humphries. ‘But no matter what the numbers say, buying a home is a huge commitment. Every day, Americans make decisions to buy or rent based on any number of personal dynamics, including preference, flexibility needs, family factors and, yes, financial considerations,’ he explained. ‘There is no right or wrong choice, and it's important that America's housing market maintains a number of affordable options for renters and buyers, no matter their preferences,’ he added. The report points out that over the last year, as home price appreciation has slowed down, the length of time it takes to break even on a home purchase grew slightly in most major metros. The breakeven analysis looks at how long it takes to come out ahead on a home purchase versus renting the same home, recouping the costs of buying, including taxes and maintenance. Among the top 35 metro areas, Dallas-Fort Worth had the lowest breakeven horizon, at 1.2 years. Indianapolis and Detroit were next at 1.3 years. The highest breakeven horizons were in Los Angeles, at 5.1 years, Washington D.C. at 4.2 and San Diego at 3.8 years. The national average is 1.9 years. Zillow's breakeven horizon incorporates all costs associated with buying and renting, including upfront payments, closing costs, anticipated monthly rent and mortgage payments, insurance, taxes, utilities, maintenance, and renovation costs. The horizon also factors in home equity growth for buyers, and, for… Continue reading
Dubai to get mandatory affordable housing quotas
A proposal by Dubai Municipality to introduce mandatory affordable housing quotas for all new residential developments is expected to bring a wide range of benefits to the emirate, it is claimed. The move will create further maturity in the market and is long overdue, according to a new report from international real estate consultants, Cluttons. With the residential market in Dubai now meandering through the second half of the current property cycle and with values stabilising following the tremendous growth recorded in 2013 and the first half of 2014, the timing for the introduction of such legislation is ideal, the firm says. According to Steven Morgan, chief executive officer of Cluttons Middle East, the issue of affordability has been one that has been quietly bubbling away in the background for some time. ‘With the introduction of the Federal Mortgage caps and the doubling of property registration fees, we saw genuine end users in the market forced into a holding pattern as they attempted to make the transition from rented accommodation to owner occupation,’ he said. ‘The surging rents, driven by the exceptionally strong underlying demand, which was linked to the robust economic growth, meant that household finances were coming under tremendous pressure on several fronts,’ he pointed out. ‘Now of course, with rents starting to show greater stability, households have a window of opportunity to consolidate their finances and make that leap to owner occupation. The prospect of those on monthly incomes of between AED4,000 and AED12,000 being able to control their rental outgoings will no doubt go some way to aiding the speed at which deposits can be amassed,’ he added. He also pointed out that it is important to remember that there is a huge pent up demand for affordable housing in the UAE and with rental affordability thresholds being breached in many cities, we welcome the news on this key issue. According to Cluttons, the idea of affordable housing is not a new concept and it has served cities such as London well, where developers are liable to provide affordable housing for developments starting with as little as ten units. In particular it has aided in the creation of diverse communities, while allowing people from all financial backgrounds to live alongside one another. ‘There have of course been exceptions to the rule, where developers have been permitted to build off-site affordable housing, with land costs being cited as the primary driver for this. Dubai stands to learn a valuable lesson from this as the authorities in London have often been criticised for effectively creating lower income neighbourhoods through this method,’ said Cluttons' international research and business development manager, Faisal Durrani. He explained that Dubai is clearly not short of affordable neighbourhoods. Karama and Satwa are two key stand out areas that evolved organically at the edges of the Deira-Bur Dubai and Jumeirah districts, respectively. ‘During the course of expansion of any city, affordable districts often tend to spring up on the fringes… Continue reading
