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Stamp duty change led to super prime sales in London falling by a third in 2015
The number of super prime £10 million plus property sales in London fell by a third in 2015 as the impact of a stamp duty increase at the end of 2014 made buyers more price sensitive. However, the latest research report from international real estate firm Knight Frank says there are indications vendors have started to factor in higher transaction costs and the annual decline was accentuated by a series of deals before the new rates came into effect in December 2014. The number of Knight Frank super prime transactions fell 16% over the same period as the stamp duty increase meant the transaction tax on a £10 million property rose to £1.1 million from £700,000, or an additional 4% of the sale price. The report points out that the 2014 reform is likely to be followed in April 2016 by a further three percentage point increase for buy to let properties and second homes. However, according to the report the resulting slowdown in activity, there are signs the market has begun to absorb the 2014 changes and asking prices that increasingly reflect the more subdued state of demand have ended the stand-off between buyers and sellers. The report suggests that to some extent buyers and sellers have become tired of the inaction and as asking prices become more realistic, buyers have seen the market is flat rather than falling off a cliff and are therefore encouraged to act. But the overriding mood is one of caution and annual price growth in the super prime market remains subdued, standing at 0.5% in December after a marked slowdown in recent years. However, it is suggested that the safe haven appeal of prime central London property continued to support demand in a year marked by economic volatility centred on events in China and geopolitical concerns around the world. There were mixed fortunes for London’s different prime central London markets in 2015. Kensington and Mayfair continued their upwards trajectory in 2015 and both areas grew their super prime market share and Kensington was the largest super prime market in 2015. The report also points out that the high quality of London’s super prime pipeline is evident in the growing share of new build deals done above £10 million, which has gone from a fifth in 2012 to over a third in 2015. Continue reading
Average UK rents up 1.2% in January compared to the same month in 2015
Average rents in the UK rose 1.2% to £906 a month in January compared to the same month in 2015, the slowest increase in three years, the latest rental index shows. But average rents are some 12% above their pre-recession peak, reaching the highest level on record, according to the data from the Countrywide monthly lettings index. The data also shows that London has seen the largest growth in rents anywhere in the country since 2007, with rents 34% higher than their pre-recession record. Between 2007 and 2016 the average Londoner has seen their rent rise from £966 to £1,295 a month. However, despite rising rents, over the past nine years the majority of the country has experienced rents growing steadily in line with incomes. Average income has increased by 12% since 2007 according to the ONS compared to a 12% increase in average rents. But there is a classic North/South divide. In the North West, North East and Wales the average tenant is still paying less than they were in 2007 by £12 a month. Across the UK as a whole, one in five tenants is still paying less rent than they were in 2007. In London rents have grown well beyond incomes. Incomes have only increased by 10% since 2007 in London whilst rents have grown by 34% fuelled by a lack of supply and high demand. As a result tenants have had to either share, downsize or move further from the centre in order to accommodate this rise, the report suggests. It also points out that at current rates of rental growth the three regions where rents remain below their previous peak will see average rents surpass 2007 levels by the middle of 2016. In these regions landlords have increasingly looked to renegotiate with long term tenants, some of whom have enjoyed years without any increase in their rent. This January more landlords were able to increase the rent for tenants who renewed their contract in the North East, North West and Wales than at any time since 2012. In 2007 the average monthly rent for a home in the UK peaked at £809 before the recession hit. Between the end of 2007 and 2008 the average cost of renting a newly let home fell 11%, equating to a fall in the average monthly rent of £87. This brought the cost of renting the average home down to £720. It wasn’t until the start of 2010 that rents started rising again. ‘Nationally rents in January rose at the slowest rate since 2012, as some of the upward pressure on prices subsided and affordability limited further rises. Across most of London and the South East the slowdown in rental growth is the first since 2010, where rents have been growing for the past six years,’ said Johnny Morris, research director at Countrywide . ‘The most sustainable way of creating a more affordable rental market in London and the South… Continue reading
Severe shortage of properties for sale pushing up asking price, says latest index
The supply of property coming onto the market in England and Wales has fallen by 8% year on year and as a result prices are set to keep rising. The latest index shows that in the East England asking prices have already risen 2.1% this year as supply is overwhelmed by demand while overall the average asking price for England and Wales is up 0.7% month on month. The date from Home.co.uk also shows that asking prices have increased in all regions except the North West and North East during the last month. And year on year asking prices are up 8.1% overall. In the East of England the supply divide is the most acute and in this region asking prices are up 12.2% year on year, meaning it has overtaken both Greater London and the South East which saw annual rises of 12% and 10.3%. The index report says that across England and Wales, prices remain on a strong rising trend and this looks set to continue as interest rates are currently on hold until at least 2017. It also points out that the total stock of property for sale remains very low, and scarcity will continue to be one of the key drivers of the 2016 property market in the UK. The second key driver is ultra-low interest rates. The number of properties entering the market is down 8% compared to a year ago. The hardest hit is the West Midlands where 17% less new stock arrived on estate agents' books this January compared to January 2015. The East of England is also in the midst of a property drought and 14% less stock was registered on agent portfolios last month. Looking to the North and Wales, the picture is very different. Only small drops in numbers of properties entering the marketplace have been observed in the North East, North West, Wales and Yorkshire. Supply in these regions remains relatively buoyant and, consequently, prices show little if any upward progress. ‘With interest rates on hold at super low levels for the foreseeable future, we are likely to witness price growth continuing to ripple out from London across the rest of the country. Lack of supply will be the key driver and, as buy to let investment continues to soak up many of the available properties, so supply will continue to dwindle,’ said Doug Shephard, Home.co.uk director. ‘The London market is now maturing and is slower and with more moderate price rises. Investment capital is now making its presence felt further afield in the East and South East where prices are leaping ahead and supply of stock for sale is crashing,’ he explained. ‘We may expect the same or a similar market dynamic to become manifest in the West Midlands, the South West and the East Midlands towards the end of the year, together with significant price growth,’ he added. ‘What is clear is that this property boom is not going away while borrowing… Continue reading
