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PRS sector in UK benefits from improvement in tenant arrears
The number of UK tenants severely behind on rental payments has fallen by 9% over the last 12 months, new research shows. Improvements mean an overwhelming 98.6% of private sector tenants now avoid significant rent arrears and this is being reflected in the rate of evictions with court orders drown by 16% in the latest quarter. Overall the figures from the latest Tenant Arrears Tracker by estate agency chains Your Move and Reeds Rains, part of LSL Property Services, shows 65,200 UK households remain more than two months behind on rent, compared to 71,700 in the third quarter of 2013. In absolute terms, those more than two months behind on their rent now number just 65,200. This compares to 71,700 tenants at least two months in arrears in the same period last year, or an annual improvement of 6,500 households who no longer face the potential threat of losing their home. As a proportion of all tenants, those in serious arrears of more than two months have also improved, standing at just 1.4% in the third quarter of 2014 compared to 1.6% of all tenants in the same period in 2013. This means 98.6% of tenants in the private rented sector now avoid falling into significant rental arrears. Improvements in the most serious rental arrears also tally with the latest figures on overall levels of late rent, including shorter lapses on payments. According to LSL’s latest Buy to Let Index, overall tenant arrears of any duration now stand at just 7.2% as of September 2014, down from 8.5% in September 2013. ‘The private rented sector has mustered enough new capacity to meet, in part, the growing demand for affordable housing, through the greatest economic depression in modern times,’ said David Newnes, director of estate agents Your Move and Reeds Rains. ‘This isn’t just about those relatively prosperous households forced to put ownership plans temporarily on hold. For many thousands of others, with far tougher monthly budgets, private tenancies have also provided a lifeline. For many renting is now their chosen route as it provides flexibility and mobility,’ he explained. ‘Gradual rent rises, on a par with inflation, have helped. But now a bigger turnaround appears to have happened. For many years more momentary cases of rent arrears have been in decline, yet it’s only recently that the most serious cases where families could actually lose their homes are following suit,’ he pointed out. He said one explanation is the improving jobs market, with the improvement in unemployment constantly outperforming expectations. ‘Wages would however need to rise faster for most households to feel the full effects of economic recovery. Reduced unemployment levels would seem to be far more beneficial for those households who are struggling the most,’ he added. The data also shows that eviction rates see first annual improvement since 2010. In the latest data, for the second quarter, 27,700… Continue reading
Property sales in Canada set to rise by almost 4% this year
Residential property sales in Canada are forecast to increase by 3.8% this year compared to 2013, according to revised figures from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). The data reflects stronger than expected sales in recent months. Even so, sales activity is expected to peak in the third quarter as the impact of a deferred spring dissipates and continuing home price increases erode housing affordability. This would place activity in 2014 slightly above but still broadly in line with its 10 year average. Despite periods of monthly volatility since the recession of 2008/2009, annual activity has remained stable within a fairly narrow range around its 10 year average. This stability contrasts sharply to the rapid growth in sales in the early 2000s prior to the recession. British Columbia is forecast to post the largest year on year increase in activity at 11.9% followed closely by Alberta at 7.7%. Demand in both of these provinces is currently running at multi year highs. Activity in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and New Brunswick is expected to come in roughly in line with 2013 levels, with sales increases ranging between 1% and 2% in the first three provinces and edging lower by about 1% lower sales in the latter two provinces. Sales in Nova Scotia and in Newfoundland and Labrador are projected to be down this year by 3.9% and 5.2% respectively. Mortgage interest rates are expected to edge higher as Canadian exports, business investment, job growth, and incomes improve. These opposing factors should benefit housing markets where demand has been softer but prices have remained more affordable. Sales in relatively less affordable housing markets are likely to be more sensitive to higher fixed mortgage rates, the CREA report also says. National activity is now forecast to reach 473,100 units in 2015, representing a decline of four tenths of 1%. Sales activity is forecast to grow fastest in Nova Scotia at 3.3%, followed by Quebec with growth of 1.3% and New Brunswick at 1.3%. Alberta is the only other province forecast to post higher sales next year with growth of 1%. In other provinces, activity is forecast to decline in the range of between 1% and 2%. In British Columbia and Ontario, this trend reflects eroding affordability for single family homes, the report says. The national average price has evolved largely as expected since the spring, resulting in little change to CREA’s previous forecast so it is projected to rise by 5.9% to $405,000 in 2014, with similar price gains in British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario. Increases of just below 3% are forecast for Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Prince Edward Island. Newfoundland and Labrador is forecast to see average home price rise by about 1% this year, while Quebec is forecast to see an increase half that size. Prices are forecast to be flat in New Brunswick and recede by almost 2% in Nova Scotia. The national average price is forecast to edge up a further 0.7% in 2015 to $407,900. Alberta and Manitoba… Continue reading
UK landlords experiencing high levels of tenant demand, latest monthly survey shows
UK landlords are still experiencing high levels of demand during the third quarter of the year with just 3% reporting that it is declining, the latest monthly buy to let survey shows. Overall 41% of landlords surveyed said tenant demand was growing or booming and 51% said in their view demand was stable, according to the Private Rented Sector Trends survey from specialist lender Paragon Mortgages. The survey, which has been running for the past 13 years and tracks landlord confidence and their views on the wider buy to let market, also shows rental arrears are expected to remain stable. Looking ahead, 61% of landlords felt that the level of tenant arrears would remain stable over the next 12 months. In comparison 12% of landlords stated that in their view tenant arrears would increase and 8% expect a decrease. Landlords were also asked what the most important factor is when they are looking for new buy to let mortgage finance. Interest rates remained the most important, having been top of the list for the past 12 months, followed by average loan to value and product fee. ‘Our latest survey of landlords reveals that that the past quarter has been a stable and steady one, with just over a third of landlords saying they feel more optimistic about the prospects for their rental portfolios,’ said John Heron, the firm’s director of mortgages. At this point in the year, we can usually gauge how the wider buy to let market has performed and what likely lending volumes for the calendar year will be,’ he explained. He pointed out that last year, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) reported total buy to let lending for 2013 as £20.7 billion. ‘Current thinking is that gross buy to let lending this year will be around the £25 billion mark, which represents a healthy increase over 2013 but there has been some evidence that the rate of growth has slowed as the year has progressed,’ added Heron. Continue reading
