Tag Archives: crisis
Property prices up modestly in UK in May but now likely to see fall due to Brexit
Residential property prices in the UK saw modest growth in May but central London experienced a fall in values, according to the latest market survey report. UK house prices are now expected to experience a short term drop for the first time since 2012, according to the monthly report from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). House prices in central London are already falling, according to the survey with 35% more property professionals reporting that prices had fallen rather than risen over the past month. While prices are continuing to climb modestly across the rest of the UK, this trend looks set to fade, with 10% more respondents predicting that prices would fall rather than rise over the coming three months. This is the first time that a fall in prices has been predicted since 2012. London and East Anglia are expected to be worst hit with 43% and 33% of respondents saying that prices will fall over the next quarter. ‘Sadly, for the many young people looking to enter the property market, it is unlikely that we are seeing the emergence of a more affordable market,’ said Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist. ‘Instead, it appears to me that what we are looking at is a short term drop caused by the uncertainty resulting from the EU referendum coupled by a slowdown following the rush to get into the market ahead of the tax change on the purchase of investment properties,’ he explained. ‘Certainly, that’s the story we are hearing from our members. There is not at this point a sense that a fundamental shift is taking place in the market,’ he added. The market report also shows that buyer demand fell across the UK for the second consecutive month and at the fastest pace since 2008, with 33% more property professionals saying that demand decreased last month. The survey revealed that in the longer term, while house prices are thought likely to regain momentum, rents look set to outpace them, with UK rents predicted to increase by 4.7% year on year for the next five years, compared to house price increases of 4.1%. The number of agreed sales also fell for the second consecutive month with a net balance of 22% of respondents reporting a fall rather than a rise in activity. Continue reading
UK first time buyers with small deposits save £1,300 in mortgage interest repayments
Falling mortgage rates in recent months mean that the average mortgage interest payments for a UK first time buyer mortgage over two years has fallen. It is down from £11,327 in the first quarter of 2015 to £10,019 in the first quarter of 2016, a saving of £1,308, according to research from AmTrust International, Mortgage and Special Risks. Record low interest rates in the first three months of 2016 mean it hasn’t been this cheap to service the interest on a 95% loan to value (LTV) mortgage since lending at this level was reinvigorated in 2013 following the financial crisis and recession. Some 95% LTV mortgages are commonly used by first time buyers who are unable to save a substantial deposit, enabling them to step onto the property ladder. The savings of more than £1,300 in interest payments over two years when compared to the first quarter 2015 is good news for a group of buyers who have been caught by rising house prices and expensive rents. As the interest costs of paying off a mortgage have fallen, this means the amount spent by high LTV borrowers, those with a 5% deposit, on capital repayments has increased, the research also shows. The amount first time buyers spend on capital repayments that help them build the equity in their home has risen 18% year on year from £5,407 in the first quarter of 2015 to £6,391 in the same period in 2016. This means first time buyers can pay off the capital of their mortgage faster, reducing the total amount of interest paid over the lifetime of their mortgage. While the costs of servicing the interest on a high LTV mortgage have decreased sharply, the cost of renting has risen in a further blow to hopeful buyers who will find it hard to save for a deposit while covering the cost of rent. Over the last year, the cost of a year’s rent has increased by £300 or 3% from an average of £9,188 in the first quarter of 2015 to £9,488 in the first quarter of 2016. When you compare the cost of renting to the interest cost of a mortgage, which is the part of the mortgage payment that does not go towards the owner building up their equity share in the property, akin to a form of saving, renting is £4,415, or 87%, more expensive. The current difference is £111 more than the £4,305 extra it cost to rent compared to paying mortgage interest in the fourth quarter of 2015, and £1,900 more than in the third quarter of 2014 when the gap was at its smallest at £2,515. The total cost of servicing a 95% LTV mortgage, interest and capital repayments, is also cheaper than it has been at any point since the Help to Buy mortgage guarantee was… Continue reading
Almost half of UK estate agents think Brexit is having a negative impact
Some 42% of estate agents in the UK believe that the decision to leave the European Union has already had a negative impact on their business, new research has found. One agency even found that following the vote on 23 June some 10% of its sales fell through and valuations were reduced by 40%, according to a survey by software supplier Dezrez. A third of those surveyed predict that there will be between 5% and 20% less properties being put on the market and suggested that home owners may see the value of their house drop by 5 to 15%. But less than believe that property values will fall considerably. The research also found that 52% of estate agents expect vendors or buyers to pull out of sales, or for vendors to take their houses off the market but 53% had seen no affect to date. Indeed, some 37% believe leaving the EU won’t have a long term impact on their business, the remainder are either unsure or anticipate a change in the market and their business model. Few have actually prepared for any kind of Brexit impact. The poll showed that 54% believe it is too early to either have a strategy or indeed need one, while 16% said they have a strategy and 13% are working on one. ‘As the economic landscape continues to shift following the UK’s vote to leave the European Union, the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has warned prospective buyers to proceed carefully if planning to borrow money,’ said the firm’s chief executive officer Justin Morris. ‘This warning, and the ongoing analysis from property professionals, is unsurprising. However, until the market settles, we won’t know the exact extent the effect Brexit will have on the residential property market. What is clear is that in the short term uncertainty will lead to a dip in market confidence,’ he explained. He added that while opportunist buyers may jump at the chance to renegotiate on price, more prudent buyers will be looking at the affects the turbulent economy is having on their finances, making sure that they will still be able to afford their mortgage. He pointed out that many of the estate agents believe that there are still more buyers than sellers. So, whilst a base reduction in housing stock and value is likely, the market could very well even itself out and remain steady. ‘The role of the estate agent will be increasingly important to vendors and buyers a like. Negotiations may become trickier and sales progression more complex, consumers will rely heavily on traditional estate agents for their experience and advice. There is no doubt that there are challenges and opportunities ahead,’ he concluded. Continue reading
