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Positive outlook for UK regional commercial markets
UK regional office markets have seen subdued rental growth over the last few years but the outlook is now more positive as a broadening economic recovery is feeding through to improved occupier demand. This together with the diminishing availability of Grade A stock and lack of significant speculative development completions over the last few years is driving rental growth across the regions, according to the latest report from Knight Frank. The real estate firm expects to see strong rental growth in the majority of regional city centres over the next 12 months, with new development completions securing higher prime rental levels. Manchester, Birmingham, Newcastle and Aberdeen will see the strongest growth while all other centres, apart from Sheffield, will see positive growth. Prime headline rents in Manchester and Aberdeen are expected to reach record highs of £34.00 per square foot by the end of 2015, representing corresponding increases of 10% and 6% over the year. Birmingham offices will also see rents rise by 8% to a seven year high of £32 per square foot. While there is unlikely to be any rental growth in Sheffield in 2015, Sheffield rents are expected to rise more sharply up to £22 per square foot by the end of 2016. Given the diminishing availability of Grade A stock and lack of developments, vacancy rates are likely to fall or at least remain stable, with the exception of Aberdeen where the level of speculative development is higher, the report points out but the firm is also anticipating a slight softening of incentives over the next 12 months. ‘As economic growth spreads to the regions we expect to see prime office rents rise across regional city centres in 2015. Lack of supply at the prime end of the market will add further upward pressure on both prime and secondary rental growth,’ said Louisa Rickard, associate, commercial research, Knight Frank. According to James Robert, Knight Frank’s chief economist, office rents will rise across regional city centres in 2015. ‘Lack of development to date could quickly migrate growth from prime to secondary,’ he says in the firm’s latest UK market outlook report. He explained that while the punchy rebound seen by commercial property in 2014 is encouraging, the recent figures from IPD are not sustainable in the long term. ‘The total return numbers may accelerate a little further, but we expect them to drop back early in 2015, perhaps picking up again in the autumn on rental growth. This will be due to slower capital growth as investors acknowledge that prices have rebounded from the double dip period. The slow and methodical business of increasing value by asset management then begins. Note though we are predicting a deceleration not a decline,’ Robert said. ‘A year ago one could only speak meaningfully of rental growth in central London, but in 2014 we saw it re-emerge for prime in many M25 towns, Birmingham, Glasgow, and Leeds. The economic recovery… Continue reading
Third of UK properties have seen prices drop since going on sale
A third of properties on the market in the UK currently for sale have been discounted, up from 27% in February and the highest since August 2012 the latest data shows. The highest proportion of asking price reductions are to be found in Yorkshire and Lancashire in Preston, Barnsley, Wakefield, Rotherham, according to the latest research from property firm Zoopla. London is among cities with the fewest price reductions but discounts have doubled since start of year and overall some £3.8 billion has been knocked off UK asking prices, equivalent to £24,429 per property The average price reduction has also grown since the start of the year, with asking price reductions now at 6.7% on average off the initial asking price, equivalent to £24,429, up from 6.3% or £20,781 in February 2014. Preston has the highest proportion of price reductions in the country at 44% of properties having had their asking price lowered since first coming to the market. This is closely followed by the Yorkshire towns of Barnsley, Wakefield and Rotherham all at 43%. However it is not just in the north of England where sellers are resetting their expectations. The largest discounts currently are to be found in affluent Mitcham in south west London where sellers have dropped prices by 9.2% on average, equal to £55,606. The research also shows that sellers in Edinburgh are the most confident of achieving their original asking prices, with only 22% of properties for sale having their prices reduced, the lowest proportion across the country. This is followed by London where only 29% of homes have seen their asking prices lowered from the original price. However, this is almost double the proportion recorded in February 2014 when only 15% saw their asking prices reduced. ‘The property market typically slows in December as buyers postpone their plans until the New Year and become pre-occupied with the festive season, but these figures suggest that sellers may be being forced to rest their expectations and become more realistic in order to secure a buyer. People are well attuned to a bargain at this time of year, so homebuyers may want to capitalise on the latest raft of reductions,’ said Lawrence Hall of Zoopla. ‘The recent Stamp Duty reforms have injected a real feel-good factor into the property market that is likely to last into January when there will be a renewed surge in buyers looking for property. There would usually be an air of uncertainty in the lead up to an election, but the positivity created by the tax overhaul should ensure this isn’t as keenly felt as usual,’ he added. Continue reading
Property sales unchanged in Canada in November and prices steady
Residential property sales in Canada were unchanged in November compared with the previous month and are 2.7% above a year ago, according to the latest data. But activity is much improved compared to the quiet start to the year and November sales strengthened in half of all local housing markets, the index from the Canadian Association of Realtors shows. The index also shows that price gains have held steady between 5% and 5.5% since the beginning of the year. However, year on year price growth decelerated among all property types tracked by the index in November compared to October. There were monthly sales increases in Montreal, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton-Burlington, Barrie, and Windsor-Essex but a monthly decline in the Greater Toronto Area. And sales were up from year ago levels in about half all local markets, led by Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, Calgary, and Greater Toronto. Two storey single family homes continue to post the biggest year on year price gains with growth of 6.79%, followed by town houses at 5.63%. Price growth was comparatively more modest for one storey single family homes at 4.2% and apartments were up 3.18%. Price growth varied among housing markets tracked by the index. In Calgary prices were up 8.53%, in Greater Toronto they increased by 7.73% and Greater Vancouver was up 5.69%. These areas have continued to post the biggest year on year increases. By contrast, prices in Regina declined by 3.36%. Prices were up between 1.6% and 2.8% year on year in the Fraser Valley, Victoria, and Vancouver Island, by less than 1% in Saskatoon and Ottawa, flat in Greater Montreal and down by less than 1% in Greater Moncton. The MLS® Home Price Index provides a better gauge of price trends than is possible using averages because it is not affected by changes in the mix of sales activity the way that average price is. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in November 2014 was $413,649, up 5.7% from the same month last year. The national average home price continues to be raised considerably by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which are among Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. Excluding these two markets from the calculation, the average price is a relatively more modest $331,743 and the year on year increase shrinks to 5%. ‘The Canadian housing market remains a story about how sales and prices are still running strong in some areas while others are seeing subdued levels of activity with slower price gains or modest price declines,’ said CREA president Beth Crosbie. The data also shows that the number of newly listed homes edged down 0.4% in November compared to October. Led by Greater Toronto, new supply was down in just over half of all local markets. The national sales to new listings ratio was 56%, marginally tighter compared to the previous three months in which it averaged 55.7% but CREA said that the… Continue reading
