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House lending in UK expected to grow in 2015 and 2016, but more slowly
The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) has issues a confident outlook report for 2105 and says it expects mortgage lending to grow in the next two years but more slowly than this year. Gross and net lending of £240 billion and £38 billion respectively in 2016 would nevertheless represent the strongest performances since 2008 and it adds that a gentle upward trajectory for the mortgage market going forwards should calm macro-prudential concerns. ‘The proportion of cash financed transactions has shown signs of stabilising in 2014, and may decline gently as mortgage availability continues to improve. Prospects for economic growth, job creation and a pick-up in earnings are relatively positive, and these factors, along with the easing in interest rate expectations over recent months, should underpin housing market sentiment,’ the report explains. It also welcomes the form of stamp duty announced by the Chancellor George Osborne in his autumn statement and said that this will also benefit lending activity in the short term. However, it also points out that housing market activity has nudged lower since the summer but this is consistent with the long standing view that affordability considerations would limit the scope for transactions to return to longer-run norms. ‘We expect the pace of house purchase in 2015 and 2016 to be a little below this year’s level,’ it adds. When it comes to buy to let, the CML says lending in this sector should continue to make some headway, although this may be limited by uncertainties about the appetite to regulate it or the activities of landlords more generally. Some further improvement in mortgage arrears and possessions is possible in 2015, before a relatively modest reversal as interest rates increase gently through the second half of our forecasting period. Ales could fall. ‘Reflecting the uncertainties about wider economic developments and housing activity beyond the next few months, we think that transactions will ease back modestly in 2015 and thereafter broadly settle,’ the forecast points out. It also points out that cash based transactions have grown in importance to account for more than a third of market sales, with the reduced availability of mortgage credit following the credit crunch. The cash proportion of sales peaked at nearly 36% in 2013 and in 2014 as mortgage credit availability has improved, mortgage financed transactions have grown at more or less the same pace as cash transactions, and so the latter’s proportion has remained fairly steady. ‘Looking ahead, we anticipate that cash transactions will progressively edge back down nearer to a third of sales, and so to a limited degree allow for a softer decrease in the volume of mortgage financed sales than for the overall market,’ the report adds. With typical loan size echoing some further modest increases in house prices, the CML expects the value of lending for regulated house purchase to move a little higher to about £120 billion in 2015 compared with £115 billion in 2014. ‘We have pencilled… Continue reading
Prime property buyers in London down by 30%, new data suggests
London’s residential prime property market is seeing fewer buyers than a year ago and stock levels are up by 60%, according to new data. The December market barometer from Douglas & Gordon shows that buyers are down by 30% but prices are holding up with values down only 15% year on year. The firm says that this is an indication that the appetite to move amongst prospective vendors is still there but there is clear evidence to suggest that political uncertainty ahead of next May’s general election is playing on buyers’ minds. It also says that vendors are waiting until after the election to put their house on the market in the hope of greater stability and records a resurgence of gazundering for the first time since 2009. ‘Significantly, the fall through rate is down, so buyers are showing tenacity in securing their property. It’s unlikely to become a common trend however, as most sellers are happy to wait for the return of market stability post-election, although the broadly beneficial Stamp Duty reforms could signal a return of confidence even earlier, said George Franks, sales director. ‘In this new paradigm, when the world economy wobbles, London smiles and, given international deflationary pressures and interest rates remaining low long term, we anticipate next year as being very good for both the prime and emerging prime markets,’ he added. The lettings market is proving to be the polar opposite of sales with applicants up 33% and stock down 30%, indicating that 2015 will sustain the recovery of rental values that has been so eroded in recent years. An uncertain sales market has helped to bolster activity with 26% fewer tenancies ending compared to this time last year, signalling that tenant are staying put, according to lettings director Virginia Skilbeck. She pointed out that at the beginning of December the first phase of the ‘right to rent’ scheme came into force in the West Midlands, whereby landlords will face fines of up to £3,000 if they fail to check on the immigration status of their new tenants. The Home Office says it expects to continue with the phased introduction of the scheme across the UK next year, but she does not expect a decision on whether it will be extended throughout Britain until after the general election in May. ‘Seasonally, the beginning of January is a very busy time in the lettings calendar and with some of our offices having half as many properties available to let compared to this time last year, combined with a surge of applicants registering in the New Year, we can expect to see increased competition for fewer available properties,’ she said. Continue reading
Demand for UK property down 8% since February, new data shows
Demand for homes in the UK has dropped by 8% since February with London seeing an even bigger fall of 28%, according to the latest property hotspots index review. It also shows that within London the borough of Westminster has suffered the most from the real estate slowdown with demand down 42% while Glasgow has seen the greatest increase in demand. The index from online estate agent eMoov monitors the change in supply and demand for the most populated locations across the UK, by monitoring the total number of properties sold in comparison to those on sale. Another area in London where demand is falling is the Olympic Village in Stratford where demand in the four London Boroughs that straddle the development have fallen steadily. Hackney has seen demand fall by 36%, Tower Hamlets and Newham dropped by 35% and 33% respectively and in Waltham Forest it is down 24%. But it’s not all doom and gloom for the South East, the London Borough of Bexley came out top with a 71% demand for property while at 67% Reading has had the second highest demand for property of all UK Hotspots, with Brentwood and Hillingdon also placing in the top 10 with a 60% demand for property. The firm suggests that this highlights the change the proposed Cross Rail development is having on towns due to benefit from its extension, as the commute to London will become significantly easier as a result. Sutton at 65%, Watford at 64%, Guildford at 63% and Medway at 56% also made the top 10 as commuter friendly towns close to the capital. Elsewhere around the country Bristol was at number six but demand for property in the West Country city has still fallen by 3% since February. Brighton also made the top 10 with demand for property at 62%. Demand for property in Scotland as a whole is up by 5% since February and the capital Edinburgh came 49th out of Britain’s hot spots, the highest of the Scottish entries. It was however Glasgow that has witnessed the most drastic turn around, demand in Scotland’s second city rose by a total of 28% since February, the biggest change across the whole of Britain. Demand for property in Hull has risen 26% over the year closely followed by Doncaster and Bradford at 25%. Even Liverpool has enjoyed an increase of 9% in demand however not all of the major players from the North have enjoyed the same success. Demand in Leeds has dropped by 5% since February, Newcastle has dropped by 8% and demand in Manchester fell by 14%. In the East Midlands Derby come out on top with demand up by 3% in comparison to its rivals. At 36% it placed 43rd in the table, 10 places higher than Nottingham and 12 places higher than Leicester. Birmingham has remained almost static in its demand for property throughout the year, however as with London there has… Continue reading
