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Investment in rural land in the UK seeing weakening returns
A weakened investment performance suggests that confidence in the rural land market in the UK is cooling after years of great returns. The IPD UK annual rural property index shows that total return recorded in 2015 was 5.5%, down from the 10.4% recorded in 2014. It is the most subdued return since 2008 and reflected a market cooling after several years of very robust returns in line with other investment classes. Sentiment was tempered by weakening commodity prices, and more recently by political discussions around Britain exiting the European Union. The report says that this caution around future market uncertainty was most reflected in rural land capital growth, which slowed to 4.1% in 2015 from 8.9% in 2014. This marked the lowest growth since 2008 when values depreciated. The decrease in the rate of capital growth contributed the most to the decline in the total return. The restraint in capital value growth was most pronounced in South East, where growth declined to 5.8% from 17.9% in 2014. There was also significant moderation in capital value growth across Eastern England, East Midlands, and Yorkshire and Humberside regions. Northern England and Scotland recorded the slowest value growth at 1.1%. Rural income return, however, held relatively steady at 1.3% compared to 1.4% in 2014, the figures in the annual index also show. ‘The weakened investment performance suggests confidence in the land market is cooling down after years of great returns,’ said Colm Lauder, MSCI vice president. ‘Moreover, the uncertainty created by discussion over Brexit and the potential effect of such a move on agri-food exports hit the confidence of farmers to increase rental holdings or invest further,’ he explained. He added that investors were concerned that it will be some time before there is a clear picture for the agricultural economy. MSCI also recorded a total return of 10.8% in 2015 in the IPD UK Annual Forestry Index, which marked a decline from a total return of 18.6% in 2014, the most subdued return since 2008. The index report points out that the decline is despite healthy demand for timber and wood products. However, a strengthened pound sterling versus euro and Scandinavian currencies put British wood products at a disadvantage in export markets. And it explains that British timber is heavily dependent on the exchange rate value of the pound. The significant gap between Euro and Swedish Krona denominated import prices and home grown prices denominated in the British pound narrowed significantly, which rendered Scandinavian exported sawn timber more competitive in 2015. Consequently, imports from mainland Europe rose at the expense of UK timber growers, whose timber sale returns in turn declined due to weakening saw-log prices. Subsequently the medium term run of forestry property price returns were impacted as investors and analysts made the adjustment. ‘The total return from UK Forestry of almost 11% is… Continue reading
New combined index for the whole of UK shows prices up 0.6% in April
Property prices in the UK increased by 0.6% in April month on month and by 8.2% year on year, according to the first single index for the whole of the country. It merges previous indices that were published separately for England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland taking data from the Land Registry, Registers of Scotland, Land & Property Services Northern Ireland and the Valuation Office Agency. It shows that the average price of a property in Scotland in April was £138,445, up 3.3% year on year and 1.5% month on month while in Wales prices increased by 1.7% year on year and 1.9% month on month to an average of £139,385. In England, the April data shows an annual price increase of 9.1% and a monthly rise of 0.7%, taking the average property value to £224,731 while in London prices increased by 14.5% year on year and 0.6% month on month to an average of £470,025. A breakdown of the figures show that the North West of England saw the greatest monthly growth with an increase of 2.3% and the North East saw the lowest annual price growth with an increase of 0.1% while the South West saw the most significant monthly price fall with a fall of 2.8%. The number of UK home sales continued to grow in the three months to April 2016, rising by 8.3% relative to the preceding three months although sales fell by 45.2% in April 2016 compared with March 2016. The number of completed house sales in England increased by 1.1%to 56,884 compared with 56,261 in February 2015, the number of completed house sales in Wales increased by 4.1% to 2,796 compared with 2,686 in February 2015 and the number of completed house sales in London fell by 10.5% to 6,926 compared with 7,740 in February 2015. Due to a period of two to eight weeks between completion and registration of sales in Scotland, volume figures for the most recent two months are not yet complete, so they are not included in the index report. The creation of a single index for the UK has been widely welcomed but there is still concerns that the time lag amounts to six weeks. According to Rob Weaver, director of investments at property crowdfunding platform Property Partner, on first viewing, the new single index looks like a fair representation of the market and consistent with current sentiment. But he pointed out that with transaction volumes at historic lows, the sample size for April will be smaller than normal and added that the next one will give a better indication as to whether or not this month’s referendum on the future of the UK in the European Union has affected sales and prices. But with historically low interest rates, strong employment and the continuing chronic undersupply of housing, he believes that the upward trend in prices looks set to continue later in the year. He also pointed out that one official… Continue reading
UK property supply down almost 5% in May
Residential property supply in the UK increased by 4.8% in May but a breakdown of the figures show that the number of homes for sale fell in half of the towns covered by the index. In total month on month supply was down in 50.4% of towns with the biggest falls coming in the towns of Southport and Loughborough at 28% and 24.1% respectively. The data from the index from online estate agent HouseSimple also shows that towns in the Midlands saw the biggest increase in supply with Lichfield up 56% and Chesterfield up 36%. The index, which tracks the number of new properties marketed every month in more than 100 major towns and cities across the UK and all London boroughs, also shows that of the areas that saw the biggest falls in supply some 47% were in the North of England. In London supply was also down by 2.4% overall in May with the City of Westminster seeing the biggest drop at 33%. The overall fall follows a decline of just 0.8% in April. The borough of Bexley also saw a significant fall following a huge peak in April, when new property listings were up 58.9%. However, despite the overall fall in London dome 53% of its 32 boroughs saw an increase in supply last month. Waltham Forest saw property supply rise 31% month on month following an 8% increase in April and Merton saw supply increase 30% in May following a 15% increase in April. ‘Although property supply was up in May, in large swathes of the country, the number of new properties listed fell,’ said the firm’s chief executive officer Alex Gosling. He believes that the confidence of buyers could be affected by the forthcoming referendum on the future of the UK in the European Union and predicts that in the run up to the poll on 23 June there could be a significant drop off in activity at a time when historically there is a lot of activity in the property market. ‘On the flip side, this could actually provide an opportunity for prospective buyers, who have their finance in place and can move fast, as they may be able to negotiate a good deal with motivated sellers keen to tie up a sale before 23 June,’ he added. Continue reading
