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UK only key country in EU likely to see property prices fall in next 18 months
House prices will rise in nearly all European markets this year on the back of historically low lending rates but in the UK prices will fall over the next 18 months due to the decision to leave the European Union, says a new analysis report. The German housing market is set to see the strongest growth due to high demand and tight supply of homes for sale but Italy is likely to see prices remain static due to a poor economic outlook, according to the report from S&P Global Ratings. ‘While uncertainties caused by the UK's June 23 referendum decision to leave the EU could dent eurozone growth and, by extension, the housing market recovery over the next few years, we don't expect that it will derail it,’ said Jean-Michel Six, chief economist for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa at S&P Global Ratings. The report forecasts that eurozone real GDP will expand 1.7% this year, and it expects that the European Central Bank's (ECB's) accommodative monetary stance, leading to historically low sovereign bond yields and mortgage interest rates, will spur improvements in Europe's housing markets. The UK is the only housing market for which house price declines are forecast as a result of the Brexit vote, although it points out that strong market gains in the first half of this year should keep full year house price rises at 5%, with the market only likely declining in 2017 by 2%. Although Ireland's economy has tight economic ties with the UK its housing market will continue its robust recovery, with prices growing by 6% this year, aided by the ongoing improvement in the labour market and a housing supply shortage. The forecast says that the Netherlands, also exposed to the UK economy, should also continue to see nominal prices rise by 5% this year on the back of economic improvements and favourable policy measures. Even the French housing market, which has been falling in recent years, is showing some resilience and looks set to grow by 2% in 2016 and in 2017 against a backdrop of low lending rates and modest economic growth. The strongest residential housing market gains this year will be in Germany, where robust economic fundamentals, a shortage of housing that is being further squeezed by the surge of migrants, and historically low lending rates should lead to prices inflating by 7% on last year. Spain and Belgium will each see house price rises of 4% this year. In Spain, economic growth, declining unemployment, and interest from foreign buyers should underpin a continued recovery of house prices the report says. In Belgium, forthcoming changes to fiscal rules and very favourable loan rates are still underpinning demand this year. While economic recovery and price incentives are also continuing to lift house prices in Portugal, a large stock of nonperforming domestic loans is… Continue reading
Demand for retirement homes in UK slows
The uptake of retirement housing in the UK softened in the second quarter of this year as many downsizers paused plans ahead of the European Union referendum vote, according to the latest quarterly review. Overall new buyer registrations for retirement properties slipped by over 20% from the first quarter to 4,744, a 30% fall on the same period last year, as uncertainty before the referendum slowed the market. However, the data from retirement property specialist Retirement Homesearch, also shows that the number of property viewings at 2,974 and instructions at 513 remained steady on first quarter numbers, showing that registered buyers are still actively looking to downsize. ‘Uncertainty around the referendum may have caused many downsizers to sit on their hands until after 24 June, but the outcome could mean a further delay in decisions, as markets fluctuate and affect pensions, which will have a knock-on effect on Britons’ retirement plans,’ said Nick Freeth, managing director of Retirement Homesearch. ‘However, with six million older Britons now living in houses with two or more excess bedrooms, downsizing could help retirees free up capital, reduce the cost of running large properties and move to homes better suited to their needs,’ he added. A recent report on the state of the UK’s housing, published by the International Longevity Centre (ILC-UK) and supported by Retirement Homesearch parent company, FirstPort, shows that under occupancy amongst the older generation is now a widespread issue with six million people living in houses with two or more excess bedrooms. Since 2005 there has been a significant increase in the number of 65 to 74 year olds living alone to 300,000. ‘As experts in retirement housing, we know that having access to specialist advice is especially important in the post-Brexit landscape where it is essential to minimise uncertainty. By ensuring downsizers get the guidance they need, they can begin to look forward to a new home, as well as a new lifestyle,’ Freeth concluded. Continue reading
New UK residential listings bounce back after downturn in June due to EU vote
New properties listed for sale in the UK increased by 3.4% in July with 62% of towns and cities seeing an increase in supply July compared to the previous month, the latest research shows. The biggest rise was recorded in Durham with a rise of 51%, followed by Hartlepool with an increase of 32.5% and Hemel Hempstead up by 31.7%, according to the figures from online estate agents HouseSimple. London’s property supply was up 13.7% in July, with Bexley, Greenwich and Lambeth seeing new property listings rise 44.1%, 41.3% and 40.5% respectively. The index report suggests that home owners don’t appear to be too worried about the possibility of falling property prices, as July saw new property listings bounce back from June when they fell by 7.3% across the country and by 12.8% in London. However, despite the majority of towns and cities experiencing a boost in supply in July, more than a third experienced significant falls in new properties listed, including Bootle, where listings fell by 30.8% in July and Chichester with a fall of 27.7%. ‘It has been business as usual after Brexit in terms of activity, with many sellers who were waiting on the result of the Referendum, now actively marketing their properties. The reality is that people need to sell for a whole host of reasons, and delaying post-Brexit is simply not an option if people are relocating for work or family reasons,’ said Alex Gosling, the firm’s chief executive officer. ‘On the ground, what was probably a sellers’ market before the vote is now going to be a more level playing field. That doesn’t mean that quality properties in desirable areas won’t still sell for close to or at asking price, but buyers are holding a few more cards now, and motivated sellers may need to more flexible on price negotiations,’ he added. Continue reading
