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Commercial property more likely to be affected by Brexit than residential
Volatile markets since the UK voted to leave the European Union are clouding prospects for the nation’s real estate sector with commercial sectors most likely to be affected, according to a new analysis. Commercial real estate companies, especially those most exposed to London's financial districts, could be most affected by falling valuations and rents, followed by home builders in the higher end segment, says the report from S&P Global Ratings. ‘We anticipate the drop in valuation will be on average less dramatic for residential real estate assets than for the commercial sector, although it will vary between segments and geographies, the report says. ‘High end and luxury apartments in central London were already experiencing some negative trends in the past few months. We would expect this situation to continue given that this segment relies more heavily on foreign investors, which we expect may be even more hesitant buyers now, despite the fall in sterling,’ it points out. ‘On the other hand, we believe that value fluctuation in the mid-range and affordable segments will likely be more limited, especially given the structural undersupply of housing in the UK and the expected lower for longer interest rate environment. Any long term impact on migration flux as a result of a Brexit may nonetheless have some negative consequences on households' growth and ultimately on residential real estate overall. However, we view this risk as more remote for now,’ it explains. Home builders, the report says, could be more heavily affected by Brexit fallout than residential real estate investment companies. This is especially if demand for new homes starts falling should purchase decisions be delayed in the context of uncertainties created by the Brexit vote. ‘We understand that home builders are monitoring closely their weekly sales rates, footfall to showrooms, and mortgage approval rates, as key indicators of operating performance. These indicators seem to have remained relatively healthy so far, in particular in the affordable segment, and mortgage availability continues to be robust as opposed to the previous downturn in 2008/2009, the report says. ‘However, some deterioration cannot be ruled out, especially because the sector is strongly correlated to GDP growth, unemployment rates, and consumer confidence, which are all expected to be negatively affected in the coming months and years,’ it adds. The report also points out that home builders already observed some declines in sales rates in the second quarter of 2016, although this seems to have been related more to the change in stamp duty than concerns over Brexit, adding that a potential decline in house prices may also stretch margins for home builders. ‘While a drop in valuation of UK commercial assets of 10% to 20% or more would be detrimental to property companies, the robust fundamentals of the business model of real estate investment companies should limit any significant turbulence in operating performance, in our view, at least in the short to medium term,’ it points out. The climate could result in discounts being offered… Continue reading
Home buyers set to see sustained period of low borrowing in UK
Home buyers in the UK, including buy to let investors can look forward to a sustained period of low borrowing rates, according to housing market lenders, due to the lowest ever bank base rate. The decision by the Bank of England to reduce the interest rate to 0.25% and the possibility of it going even lower, brings to an end the longest period of no change in rates since the War/post-War years of 1937 to 1951. Bank rate was cut from 1% to 0.5% in March 2009, and remained there till it was cut again last week. The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) points out that mortgage rates have fallen significantly over that period. The average mortgage rate over that period has fallen from 3.8% to 2.9%. It also points out that the bank rate is not the only influence. Funding costs, levels of competition, targeted levels of profitability, and an assessment of current and future market conditions to price appropriately for risk are also relevant factors. So it also follows that a rate cut does not automatically feed through on a like for like basis to mortgage rates. Future pricing will depend on all the factors above and is a matter for individual lenders. Around 50% of borrowers are currently on fixed rates and will therefore see no immediate impact on their payments in any case. Of the remaining 4.9 million home owners with a variable rate mortgage, over 1.5 million have a tracker rate mortgage and these borrowers may automatically see a rate reduction depending on their mortgage contract but some will have a lower level below which rates cannot fall. For new borrowers, mortgage pricing is extremely competitive and set to remain so. However, it is worth noting that the Bank has also been urging borrowers to plan ahead for the prospect of higher rates in the future and the CML said consumers should not assume that just because rates are low now, they will necessarily stay that way for a prolonged period. Recently, fixed rates have been accounting for about 90% of new lending, and while this is partly because they have been priced attractively, it's also likely to reflect a consumer appetite for certainty about outgoings. CML director general Paul Smee believes that some hesitation on the part of consumers thinking about buying property is understandable against the backdrop of recent political uncertainty. However, mortgage lenders are well capitalised and resilient and open for business to lend, in line with consumer demand as and when confidence levels bounce back. ‘Since the last change in official rate in March 2009, the average mortgage rate has already fallen from 3.8% to 2.9%. This confirms that bank rate is not the only influence on mortgage pricing; we feel that the mortgage market is at present well capitalised, resilient and open for business. Housing market fundamentals are sound,’ he explained. ‘So, we see the cut as a wider reaction to the economic effects of… Continue reading
First time buyer property valuation activity increased after Brexit vote
Housing market activity in the UK has shifted in favour of first time buyers and remortgagors, in the first full month after the vote to leave the European Union, according to the latest research. Overall, July has seen the number of all property valuations fall 2% compared to the same month last year, says the latest monthly analysis from Connells Survey and Valuation, which reflects a slight cooling compared to June. ‘Judging the Brexit effect might take years but in the meantime the first full month after the vote already looks encouraging as change has mainly been confined to the mixture of activity, rather than the overall volume of valuations,’ said John Bagshaw, corporate services director of Connells Survey & Valuation,. The data shows that activity in the first time buyer and remortgaging sectors have driven July’s valuation market. There were 12% more first time buyer valuations in July 2016 than in July 2015. Meanwhile remortgaging activity also saw the same 12% annual rate of growth. ‘July was particularly good for those making their first step on the property ladder. Despite some widespread fears about Brexit, any negative impact on wages, employment or inflation has not materialised and first time are continuing to make the most of government schemes and are now boosted by even lower mortgage rates this summer. This is the same development that is proving a boost for remortgagors, also benefitting from a new wave of even better mortgage deals,’ Bagshaw explained. Those already on the property ladder looking to move home appear to have been slightly more cautious in July than those making their first step. Compared to the same month in 2015, home mover valuations have fallen in number by 8%. Similarly, buy to let activity has been relatively cooler in July than at the same point a year ago. The total number of valuations for buy to let purchases has now fallen by 41% since July 2015. ‘Buy to let activity is steady post-Brexit vote, even if at a level lower than last year. In fact this correction is not new, and mainly not as a result of referendum uncertainty. Since April, held back by the Government’s 3% Stamp Duty surcharge, some landlords are pausing for thought,’ Bagshaw explained. ‘Looking ahead, tax changes are increasingly factored in to landlords’ investment plans which forms a strong core of buy to let activity focused on the long term and a solid basis of future growth in demand for valuations from landlords,’ he added. Continue reading
