House price sentiment increases in UK after Brexit low but still down on peak

Taylor Scott International News

Households across the UK believes that the value of their home rose in August but expectations remain muted following the decision to leave the European Union. Households in the East of England perceived the biggest price growth in August, followed by those in the South West and South East, according to the latest House Price Sentiment Index (HPSI) from Knight Frank and IHS Markit. Respondents in six of the 11 regions covered by the index believe prices increased over the course of the month and the future HPSI picked up in August with households still confident that the value of their home will rise over the next 12 months, albeit at a slower pace than before the EU referendum. Households in the South of England are more confident about price rises than those in the North of England, Scotland or Wales and overall 15.2% of the households surveyed across the UK said that the value of their home had risen over the last month, while 12.4% said that prices had fallen. A breakdown of the figures shows that with those in the East of England reported the biggest rises at 58.5, followed by those in the South West t 55 and the South East at 54.5. Scotland and the North East were the only two regions where sentiment fell month on month from 49.3 and 45 to 45.6 and 44.3 respectively. This resulted in a HPSI reading of 51.4. Any figure over 50 indicates that prices are rising, and the higher the figure, the stronger the increase. Any figure below 50 indicates that prices are falling. August’s reading was an increase from the 48.3 recorded in July following the EU referendum and took the index back into 50 plus territory. However, it remains notably below the average HPSI reading for the first six months of the year before the vote which was 59.9. It is also significantly lower than the peak of 63.2 recorded in May 2014. The future HPSI, which measures what households think will happen to the value of their property over the next year, rose to 58.3 in August from 50.3 in July. While the sentiment index has risen month on month, it remains subdued on a longer term basis. The last time the future sentiment index was below 60 for two consecutive months was back in March 2013. This report says that this suggests that while households are still positive, they are expecting more modest growth in property prices over the next 12 months. There remain regional variations in future house price sentiment, mirroring trends in the wider housing market. Households in the East of England are the most confident that prices will rise over the next year at 68.3, followed by those in the South West at 64.7 and the South East 63. ‘The greater political confidence instilled after Brexit by the swift appointment of a new Prime Minister, coupled with the Bank of England’s base rate… Taylor Scott International

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