Carbon Market Challenges & Opportunities

London, 29 May 2013 Short-term intervention in the EU IETA members would overwhelmingly support intervention by the European Commission in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) within 12 months to improve the functioning of the market from its current record lows. Almost all (96%) respondents back structural reform of the EU ETS, with almost half (45%) thinking an ambitious emissions target and cap would be the most effective option. The outlook for price recovery remains weak according to members with low carbon prices expected up to 2020. EUAs are currently trading at around €3.50, only 7% of the value needed globally to shift economies onto a low carbon pathway (€47). 56% of respondents expect EUAs to trade at €5-10 between now and 2020, a 47% fall from last year’s expectations for the same time period, and a 68% fall from those in 2011. • Expectations that EUAs will trade below €10 and CERs below €5 to 2020 • Domestic or regional policies will be more important that international negotiations over the next few years Dirk Forrister, President and CEO, IETA said:  “The agreement in Doha to extend the cap and trade schemes will emerge elsewhere before 2020 in Brazil (37%), Japan (36%), and Mexico (36%). Four out of five now feel that domestic or regional policy initiatives are likely to be more important than international negotiations over the next five years. Respondents particularly highlighted that linking domestic or regional carbon markets will help stimulate the growth in a global market. 94% expect that the EU and Australian carbon markets will be linked before 2020, as well as 35% for New Zealand and around a25% believe that both California and South Korea will eventually link with the EU. Dirk Forrister, President and CEO, IETA said: “Carbon Markets are the preferred policy tool for addressing greenhouse gas emissions around the world. As new systems emerge, market actors and policymakers need to work together to design these systems in a harmonized way – and to make them “linking-ready.”  That way, it will be easier to create a more globally connected system and a commonly traded carbon commodity, which will allow nations to meet emissions targets and preserve economic growth.” Amongst other key findings: The new Californian carbon market, launched at the start of the year, is expected to increase its share of the global market in terms of value, with California Carbon Allowances expected to continue trading at US$10-20 over the first three years of the programme. Only 62% believe that ICAO will propose an approach to global aviation emissions regulation before 2018, and more than one respondent in ten believes that they never will. Only 1% of respondents expect the outcome of COP21 in 2015 to result in legally binding targets for all major economies that are aligned with limiting climate change to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Despite the collapse of carbon prices, all regulated entities surveyed said that the carbon price is still relevant to their capital investment decisions, with four out of five saying it is an important factor. Jonathan Grant, Director, PwC , who performed analysis on the survey said: “The outlook for a global deal is for a mix of binding targets and voluntary pledges; IETA members expect that the global deal in 2015 will look more like Cancun than Kyoto, but at least it won’t be Copenhagen.” “With a sustained period of low prices expected for EU carbon permits, business looks set to face a patchwork of climate regulation over the coming years which may raise concerns about competitiveness and high administrative costs.” Ends — Taylor Scott International

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