TSI
Falling property prices make Dubai a more mature real estate market
Falling property prices in Dubai are not totally bad news as it will make the emirate’s real estate market more mature, a new analysis report says. The report from international real estate firm Knight Frank explains how over the past decade, Dubai has been on a real estate rollercoaster ride of boom, crash and recovery. Indeed, property values halved between 2008 and 2010, but then rose phoenix like from the desert to regain most of their losses by 2014. However, the rallying prices of 2013 and 2014 set off the alarm so authorities had to react to prevent a market boom and crash cycle. At this point Dubai’s market regulators, wielding mortgage caps and a doubling of transaction fees, stepped in to reduce speculation and the report points out that this combined with other factors such as deteriorating oil prices, currency fluctuations and a series of economic and political failures in different parts of world, means lower levels of demand from most regional and international group of buyers looking to purchase properties in Dubai. On top of this there has been an excess of new build supply and the net impact has been a 12% fall in mainstream property prices over the 12 months to June 2015. ‘Nevertheless, falling prices are not totally bad news. With the government stepping in to curb speculative activity through tightening mortgage regulations and capping price increments, it is evident that lessons has been learnt from the 2008 downturn and the market is heading steadily to be more mature and better controlled,’ says the report. ‘More interestingly, with price falls continuing to outpace rental value declines, initial yields are rising. Reaching more than 7% in rental yields in the mainstream property segment, Dubai still stands tall among real estate capitals in the world for investor seeking income generating properties,’ it adds. It also points out that the rate of decline in prime residential prices of 4.5% in the year to June 2015 was smaller compared to the mainstream segment while in sub-markets, the picture is a bit more positive as well. In demand areas are mostly in the prime segment including villas, townhouses and apartments in the Palm, Emirates Hills, Dubai Marina and Downtown for example. ‘Even during the 2008 downturn, prime properties saw lower levels of declines compared to less established areas,’ Diaa Noufal, of the MENA research unit at Knight Frank Dubai office. The report also looks at the wider region. In Qatar foreigners have been able to buy property since 2004, although restricted to a few specific areas. Demand has been rising, albeit with a slowdown this year following the oil price crash and regional instability. Buyers tend to be residents of countries within the Gulf Cooperation Council, although the number of European buyers is rising. Demand for Oman property from across the Middle East and from India and Pakistan has risen in recent years. Knight Frank says this is partly due to… Continue reading
Research shows interest only mortgage numbers in UK are falling
Concerns have been growing in the UK over the number of home owners with interest only mortgages who do not have enough finance to cover themselves when their loan comes to an end. But new research shows that over the past two years the total number of interest only loans outstanding has fallen by over a quarter with a 16% reduction in the number of loans over the past year alone. According to the Council of Mortgage Lenders the progress that has been made and the ongoing steps that are being taken by the industry to check that borrowers with interest only mortgages have plans for how they will repay their loans at maturity is encouraging. As at the end of 2014, CML members reported that there were around 1.9 million pure interest only mortgages outstanding, and around 460,000 part interest only mortgages. This was around 300,000 fewer pure interest only mortgages and 160,000 part interest only mortgages than a year earlier. The CML research suggests that a quarter of this reduction is down to natural attrition, which is loans maturing and repaying at the end of their term. Around a third can be attributed to full redemption of loans not set to mature until at least 2028, suggesting that many borrowers are taking action well before problems could arise. This also suggests that a significant group of borrowers are successfully remortgaging onto full repayment terms without falling foul of new affordability rules. Of those loans that have matured, few have failed to repay. In total, there are fewer than 16,000 loans outstanding which have matured but not yet repaid or restructured and previous experience shows that most such loans subsequently redeem within a relatively few months of maturity. However, the CML said there is no room for complacency and members are continuing to think about the options for customers who may not be able to repay their mortgages. This includes more partnering with third party advice providers, including equity release firms, and product innovations that may help some borrowers. The CML also pointed out that it remains a challenge to get borrowers to respond to lender contact designed to help them plan for their mortgage's repayment at maturity. Lenders contacted around 427,000 interest only customers between April and December 2014, about 17% of all interest only borrowers. During 2014, the focus of lender communications moved beyond those whose mortgages are due to mature by 2020, and included borrowers whose mortgages are not due to mature until after this. Response rates by borrowers varied. Around 27% of those contacted whose mortgages are due to mature between 2021 and 2028 responded but only a disappointing 2% of those whose mortgages are not due to mature until after 2028 did. However, where lenders did succeed in getting customers to respond, 86% of those who responded had a repayment strategy, and those who did not appeared responsive to making changes such as switching to repayment terms,… Continue reading
UK property sales exceed 100,000 for third month in a row
Residential property sales in the UK were at their highest in August for 18 months, according to the latest data published by HMRC. It means that more homes were sold in in August than in any month since February last year with the seasonally adjusted data showing 106,480 transaction during the month. It is the third month in a row that sales of more than 100,000 were recorded, however, sales are still well below the monthly sales of nearly 150,000 seen during the housing boom in 2006. The seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of residential property transactions increased by 3.1% between July 2015 and August 2015 and that is 5.7% higher compared with the same month last year. For August 2015 the number of non-adjusted residential transactions was 7.4% lower compared with July 2015. The number of non-adjusted residential transactions was 1.9% lower than in August 2014. Peter Rollings, chief executive officer of Marsh & Parsons, said that taking into account seasonal adjustment, property sales are going from strength to strength, and showing great improvement from this time last year. ‘With the spectre of higher interest rates being kept at bay, buyer demand is in full swing and summer sales have continued to blossom in August. After slightly fewer home sales than we would expect in a typical July, buyers last month were showing a new enthusiasm and readiness to enter the market,’ he pointed out. ‘The changes to stamp duty are still washing over London and cooling activity at the topmost tiers of the housing market. But overall demand for property in the capital hasn’t waned, as young professionals and first time buyers continue to seek out up and coming areas to put down roots,’ he explained. ‘The subsequent squeeze on available property for sale in the capital should keep pushing house price growth along well into the autumn,’ he added. Continue reading
