TSI
London and Paris still dominate wish list of European real estate investors
European real estate investors are increasingly looking beyond London and Europe’s gateway cities such as London and Paris as they seek to meet their return objectives, new research suggests. But not every regional city is suitable for investors and returns can disappoint in the medium term if one does not factor-in local market fundamentals such as local growth trends, demographic changes and human capital, it points out. According to the latest LaSalle Investment Management’s European Regional Growth Index (E-REGI), which ranks Europe’s top 100 cities, the region’s economy is driven by dynamic urban centres with London and Paris once again in first and second position in the ranking. The index report explains that the extraordinary resilience of such cities, combined with their deep investment markets, justifies targeting them for a wide range of investment strategies. Other cities increasingly coming to the fore include Manchester at 17 and Bristol at 25 which have both climbed three spots in the European ranking, while Birmingham at 37 is up two spots. ‘Having published this index for 16 years, we now have an unrivalled understanding of the different economic patterns in Europe’s leading cities,’ said Mahdi Mokrane, LaSalle Investment Management’s head of research and strategy for Europe. ‘The index not only determines which real estate markets are likely to out or underperform in the medium term, but combined with our on the ground expertise we also use the index as a strategic framework to match cities with the most relevant investment styles,’ he explained. In order to help investors navigate the complexity of the different strategies which best match different cities, LaSalle has categorised them into four distinct groups: consistent, affluent, mover and aspiring. Consistent is the largest group in the E-REGI analysis. Cities in this group are generally sizeable and combine deep investment markets with long term economic strengths related to demographics, technology and urbanisation (DTU), creating the right conditions for growth focused strategies. London and Paris top this group of consistent performers, but balanced E-REGI scores and consistent performance over time are not limited to the top of the ranking. Munich, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Stuttgart and Amsterdam also seem suited for value-add or opportunistic strategies. Düsseldorf, Mannheim-Karlsruhe, Cologne-Bonn, Rotterdam-The Hague, Utrecht, Edinburgh and Leeds are also included in the group but the report says core investment would be more suited given their smaller market size. Affluent is a small group of cities that also support long term strategies but are more difficult to transact-in due to their smaller size and stronger domestic investor base. Consumer related strategies are most attractive in these cities as their strong E-REGI scores are predominantly driven by their wealth and research and development spending components. This group includes Stockholm, Luxemburg, Oslo, Copenhagen-Malmo and Zürich. Movers are more ‘cynical’ market where timing is of the essence for investment in these more cyclical markets. For example Spanish cities have seen moves at both the top and the bottom of the… Continue reading
Prime London homes continue to feel stamp duty effect
Prime London house prices grew marginally over the summer months as the market continues its adjustment to the higher stamp duty charges introduced in December 2014, the latest index shows. This means that average values are back to levels seen a year ago, according to the Savills prime London index. Overall average prices across all prime London’s housing markets rose by 0.7% in the three months to the end of September, while the prime central London average fell slightly, by 0.4%. The data also shows that year on year prime central prices are down 4.6% while the whole of the London prime market saw no change. But prices are still up considerably over five years by 28% and 35.8% respectively. However, Savills says, these averages mask variations in price growth, which now relate as much to the different value bands as to location. Over the past year, price changes have broadly reflected stamp duty increases at different price points and therefore growth has been concentrated in the sub £2 million market. Homes in the £500,000 to £1 million range, which are subject to lower stamp duty charges, have risen by 3% year on year, and in the £1 million to £2 million range by a marginal 0.9%. By contrast, those over £2 million have fallen by an average of 2.6%. ‘The increased transactional costs over £1 million have undoubtedly made buyers more cautious, offsetting any post-election euphoria, particularly as the stamp duty change came when parts of the market were beginning to look fully priced after five years of steady growth,’ said Lucian Cook, head of residential research at property adviser, Savills. ‘For all but the very best in class properties, many buyers are expecting a discount on last year’s prices at least equivalent to the additional tax. By contrast, stamp duty changes have benefitted properties in lower tiers of the prime market, which have performed more strongly,’ he explained. ‘The prime London market now looks fully taxed and buyers are slower to commit, which is likely to continue to constrain the market in the short term, however the medium term fundamentals of demand for prime property in the UK capital remain positive. This has been reflected in a busy September in the new build market, where best in class is recognised,’ he added. Continue reading
Number of tenants seriously behind with rent reaches two year high in UK
The number of tenants seriously behind on rent has risen to the highest level in the UK for two years in the second quarter of 2015, according to the latest tracker report. There are now 74,000 tenants owing more than two months’ rent which means 5,000 more households are in significant arrears than a year ago, or an annual increase of 7.2% since the second quarter of 2014, when this figure previously stood at 69,000 across the UK. On a quarterly basis, the number of cases of severe arrears has risen by 4.4% or 3,100 households, since standing at 70,900 in the first quarter of the year, the report from estate agency chains Your Move and Reeds Rains, part of LSL Property Services, also shows. However, the report points out that the recent worsening in the number of tenants in serious difficulties remains relatively mild by historical comparison. Compared to the worst peak of serious rent arrears, seen in the third quarter of 2012, when 116,600 households owed more than two months in late rent, this has moderated significantly. The report also points out that the chance of a given tenant falling seriously behind on rents is still extremely low. As a proportion of all tenancies, those in severe arrears represent just 1.4% of all tenants, stable compared to the previous quarter and the same as was seen a year before in the second quarter of 2015. This compares to 2.9% of tenants in the first quarter of 2008, twice the current proportion, even before the worst of the financial crisis and recession. ‘Across the UK most households are beginning to earn more, and it is this majority of tenants who are able to bid up the price of rented homes in the face of constricted supply. Rents are accelerating in response, rising by more than 5% over the last year according to our separate research,’ said Adrian Gill, director of estate agents Your Move and Reeds Rains. But he warned that behind this headline buoyancy, there is a less positive story. ‘For a small minority there has been no transformational boost to household earnings, and it is this more marginal population of tenants who are feeling the squeeze of rising rents most sharply,’ he explained. ‘Severe arrears are still much lower than their previous peaks but a lack of further progress highlights the underlying and fundamental supply shortage. Tenants need more available properties on the market, and landlords should be encouraged to invest further in order to keep up with growing demand,’ he added. The data also shows that eviction rates have improved. In the second quarter of the year a total of 27,910 tenants faced a court order for eviction, on a seasonally adjusted basis. This represents a 3.9% improvement since the first quarter of 2015 and is 5.9% lower on an annual basis compared… Continue reading
