TSI
Residential rents in Scotland up at less than a third in England and Wales
Scottish rents are rising at less than a third of the rate seen in the rest of Britain, amidst the controversy of the new Private Housing Bill, according to a new buy to let index report. Average Scottish rents have risen just 1.7% in the past year, less than a third of the rate currently being witnessed in England and Wales, according to the data from lettings agent network Your Move. Year on year the index show that while rents across England and Wales have increased by 6.3% in the past 12 months, annual rent growth in Scotland has plateaued after a summer uplift. The data also shows that rents in Scotland fell 0.3% from August to September 2015, the second consecutive monthly drop in Scottish rents, meaning that the typical rent in Scotland is now 0.8% lower than at its summer peak in July. The average monthly rent in Scotland was £545 in September 2015, compared to £549 in July 2015. However this is 33.3% cheaper than in England and Wales during September. ‘All eyes are on the proposed reforms to the private rented sector in Scotland, but there is a crucial element missing to the debate. Rents are not going up quickly enough to warrant the staggering rise in tenant arrears we’re seeing. Rather, tenant finances have much more to do with deeper rooted societal problems of salaries and employment levels,’ said Brian Moran, lettings director at Your Move Scotland. ‘Over the summer we witnessed a short term surge in rent prices, but this has been superseded more recently with a slower rate of rent growth, which doesn’t even come close to what we’re witnessing south of the border. Scottish rents have been falling for the past few months, and realigning to calmer levels for the autumn. This is even more extraordinary when you consider we’ve just weathered peak lettings season. It’s certainly not a sector spiralling out of control,’ he explained. ‘This auto-correction, and natural flow of the lettings market will be disrupted by artificial interventions from the Government. Private sector landlords could soon face a regulatory minefield, and this may dissuade future investment into buy-to-let at a time when we need to be the sector to grow, not contract. Ultimately, where the supply of rental properties uncouples from demand, rent growth will be massively thrown out of kilter, and tenants will find themselves even more exposed,’ he added. A breakdown of the data shows that all but one region of Scotland has seen rents increase over the past year. The strongest annual rent growth has been recorded in the Highlands and Islands, with rents up 6.4% since September 2014 to reach a new high of £572 per month. This represents the fifth consecutive month that annual rent growth has accelerated in this region, and the fastest year on year increase on record… Continue reading
New home building sector in Australia sees three years of growth
The new home building sector is the star performer of the Australian economy having seen three years in a row of growth, according to the Housing Industry Association (HIA), the voice of Australia’s residential building industry. The latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that despite a modest decline in new dwelling commencements in the June 2015 quarter, there was still a record number of 211,976 new homes started in 2014/2015, an increase of 16.9%. ‘That is a phenomenal result which caps three consecutive years of growth for new home building, only the fifth time in the last 60 years that this feat has been achieved,’ said HIA chief economist Harley Dale. ‘Through its broad reach the new home building sector has delivered a strong economic dividend to Australia during a period when many other sectors of the economy have struggled,’ he pointed out. He also explained that while new dwelling commencements will fall in 2015/2016 they should remain elevated at what would still be the second highest level on record. ‘The key to the short term prospects for new home building is how much work in the pipeline is converted into actual activity and it’s not coming through as quickly now. An orderly decline in commencements in 2015/16 remains the most likely outcome,’ Dale added. A breakdown of the figures shows that there were 53,314 dwellings commenced during the June 2015 quarter, a decline of 3.2% from an upwardly revised March quarter. Detached house commencements fell by 2.9% to 28,046, while ‘other dwelling’ commencements declined by 4.9% to 24,482. But there are regional differences. New dwelling commencements increased in South Australia by 12% in the quarter, by 54% in Tasmania and by 76.4% in the Australian Capital Territory. But they fell by 1.6% in New South Wales, by 0.5% in Victoria, by 9.6% in Queensland, by 10.5% in Western Australia and by 36.1% in the Northern Territory. Meanwhile, the latest data shows that prices growth for land for building new homes has eased off slightly. The latest HIA-CoreLogic RP Data Residential Land Report shows there was some relief from the tight conditions in Australia’s residential land market in the June 2015 quarter. National residential land sales increased by 17.6% while the weighted median residential lot price increased by 0.6% over the quarter to 5.2% higher than 12 months earlier. ‘A rise in land sales was accompanied by an easing off in the pace of price increase in Australia’s residential land market. This compares with previous quarters which saw strong price increases amid declining land sales,’ said HIA economist, Diwa Hopkins. ‘While the June quarter result is an encouraging development, what needs to occur is similar results being sustained over the longer run. That is, a larger and more consistent flow of shovel-ready land needs to be brought online,’ she explained. ‘For this to happen, policy reform needs to address the key land supply bottlenecks including unnecessarily long planning delays, slow… Continue reading
Tighter buy to let regulation could push up rents in UK
Measures which discourage investment in the private rented sector in the UK in the face of population growth and low housing supply can only push up rents and harm tenants more than landlords, a new report suggests. The report from the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association (IMLA) which examines the key issues facing the main segments that make up today’s mortgage market, warns that tighter buy to let regulation could restrain supply. Assessing the possible impacts of July’s buy to let tax changes, the IMLA argues that a higher tax burden for landlords, which will push some into losses after tax and raise the effective tax rate on their buy to let above 100%, may slightly skew the market in favour of owner occupied house hunters, by reducing the price that landlords are prepared to pay for any given property. The risk, however, is that these changes and the threat of tighter buy to let mortgage regulation will constrain the supply of available rental properties at a time when the fundamentals of population growth and low housing supply are driving an increase in demand, and that institutional investment will fail to make up the gap. The IMLA report shows total lending across the mortgage market this year was running below its 2014 level from January to May. Since then, there has been a sharp recovery and 2015 may be shaping up to be a mirror image of 2014. Subdued lending in the first half of the year may have reflected uncertainty in the run up to the general election but a clear cut election result has removed this level of doubt. The bedding down of the Mortgage Market Review (MMR), which disrupted some lending with its introduction in 2014, has also contributed to the recovery, it explains. By far the most robust recovery has come in buy to let, but this must be placed in context of an 81% decline after the recession between 2007 and 2009, the report points out. This compares with a 60% drop in remortgaging volumes, 56% among home movers and 53% among first time buyers over the same period. Buy to let lending volumes remained 40% below their 2007 peak in 2014, and the IMLA argues that it is responding to rather than driving growth in tenant demand in the private rental sector. While buy to let has rebounded, the remortgage market has been slow to respond, but conditions are ripe for a resurgence. IMLA’s analysis shows that in the second quarter of 2015 remortgage volumes were up 11% on the previous quarter to record the best performance since 2009. At just under 3%, the price differential between standard variable rates (SVRs) and discounted variable rate deals is greater this year than ever before. Interest rates are also expected to rise, and for the first time in the second quarter households’ aggregate housing equity surpassed the £5 trillion mark. Only 20% of gross UK housing wealth is now… Continue reading
