TSI
Auckland sees unexpected property price surge
Average residential property prices in Auckland, New Zealand’s most populous city, increased by 4.2% in November month on month, the biggest rise since March 2014. This took the average price of a home to $876,075 and marks a substantial monthly rise compared to the more modest increases seen in the last seven months. The data from real estate agent Barfoot & Thompson also shows that the median home price increased by 1.9% in November compared to October to $795,000. ‘You have to go back 20 months to March 2014 to find a bigger monthly increase in the average price. For the past seven months, monthly increases have been modest, but last month buyers were as committed as ever to meeting vendor expectations,’ said Barfoot & Thompson director Kiri Barfoot. But she pointed out that while prices have ignored Government and Reserve Bank measures designed to cool prices, there has been a measurable decrease in market activity. In October market activity slowed, and that trend continued into November. The number of sales in November fell 7.7% month on month, the firm’s lowest in a month since February. New listings for the month at 1,683 were also down by 7.5% compared with October and the lowest number in the past seven months. ‘It remains to be seen if prices continue to ignore the tighter regulations, or whether November's prices are the last remnants of momentum that built in the lead up to the introduction of the tighter measures,’ said Barfoot. The data also shows that the price segment which experienced the largest decline in sales numbers in November compared to October was the $500,000 to $750,000 category. In November 286 homes were sold in this price category compared to 353 in October. It is a price category popular with investors with portfolios of less than three properties. The number of sales in November between $750,000 and $1 million, and those over $1 million were similar in number to those sold in October, as was the number of homes sold for under $500,000. Continue reading
UK commercial real estate performance set to be more polarised in 2016
After a strong 2015 experts expect the performance across different parts of the UK’s commercial real estate sectors to be more polarised over the next 12 months. According to the latest analysis from Schroders it has been another good year for UK commercial real estate and unleveraged total returns are likely to be close to 15%. One of the keys to success in 2015 was rental recovery. The report explains that whilst one of the drivers was a continued favourable fall in real estate yields, the key difference to 2014 was a broad based recovery in rental values. While central London offices have led the upswing, several other cities including Brighton, Bristol, Cambridge, Manchester, Leeds and Oxford have also seen a significant increase in office rents. Likewise, industrial rents rose in many locations, boosted by growing demand from on-line retailers and parcel couriers. In contrast however, the retail sector is still adjusting to a world of multi-channel sales, the report adds. While there are pockets of rental growth in London and some tourist destinations, most centres have a significant amount of vacancy and rents were either flat, or fell slightly in 2015. The outlook for 2016 is already categorised by some commentators asking whether we are now at the top of the cycle. Schroders' head of real estate, Duncan Owen, explained that the income from commercial real estate has historically been very stable, but capital values have been cyclical. However, capital values have risen by 25% in less than three years and there is sentiment that cannot continue. ‘This sentiment is understandable, but not necessarily rational. The immediate trigger for previous downturns has been a recession, which has depressed rents and pushed up real estate yields as investors have withdrawn from the market and liquidity has dropped,’ said Owen. ‘In addition, commercial real estate has had a habit of contributing to its own downfall, either through excessive borrowing which inflated prices such as from 2005 to 2007, or because of a boom in development which left an oversupply of space, for example from 1988 to 1990, and falls in rents,’ he added. He believes that none of the usual suspects appear to yet be evident currently. ‘Looking at the economy, the outlook is positive and the consensus is that UK GDP will grow by 2.25 to 2.5% through 2016 to 2017. The main reason for being optimistic is that the UK is finally seeing a recovery in productivity, which should support a steady increase in real disposable incomes and consumer spending. Furthermore, exporters stand to gain from faster growth in the rest of the European Union, which accounts for 45% of total exports,’ Owen pointed out. His analysis also points out that there are few signs of excess borrowing. ‘In general, banks and other lenders have continued to take a disciplined approach to commercial real estate and although total loan originations in 2015 are likely to be around £50 billion, they are still… Continue reading
Help to Buy helps over 130,000 home buyers in UK
The UK government’s flagship Help to Buy scheme has helped over 130,000 people achieve their aspiration of buying their own home since it was launched, the latest official figures reveal. Some 80% of scheme completions have been made by first time buyers, with more expected following the launch of the government’s Help to Buy ISA scheme at the beginning of this month. Help to Buy was created in 2013 to ensure that working people who saving for a deposit could achieve their aspiration of buying their own home through government support. Home ownership is a key part of the government’s long term plan to provide economic security for working people across the UK. The scheme continues to benefit first time buyers overwhelmingly, with the vast majority of sales outside of London and at prices well below the national average. According to officials Help to Buy is also ensuring the long term health of the housing market by increasing housing supply and stimulating home building. Almost half of the homes bought through Help to Buy are new build properties, helping to contribute to the 38% rise in private house building since the launch of Help to Buy. First time buyers will have a further boost from the Help to Buy: ISA, which banks and building societies across the UK are offering as of last week. Under this scheme, first time buyers can save up to £200 a month towards their first home and the government will boost their savings by 25%, or £50 for every £200, up to a £3,000 bonus. Some 14 banks and building societies have already signed up to offer Help to Buy: ISAs. These lenders are: Aldermore, Bank of Scotland, Barclays, Clydesdale Bank, Halifax, HSBC, Lloyds Bank, Nationwide, NatWest, Newcastle Building Society, Santander, Ulster Bank, Virgin Money and Yorkshire Bank. With almost all completions outside London, the highest number of homes through the mortgage guarantee scheme have been in the North West region. The equity loan, a scheme for new build properties, is particularly prevalent in the South East region. Figures for the mortgage guarantee scheme also show completions have been least concentrated in regions where house price growth is highest. In London the scheme makes up just 1% of all mortgage lending compared to an average of 3% across the country. The average house price for both parts of the scheme, at £185,972 at £155,573 for the mortgage guarantee and £217,999 for the equity loan scheme, remains significantly below the national average house price of £286,000. ‘This government is committed to helping people achieve the aspiration of buying their own home, and our Help to Buy schemes have now helped 130,000 across the UK do just that,’ said Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne. He also pointed out that the stronger economy and financial system means that the government now expect banks to start to exit the Help to Buy Mortgage Guarantee scheme, which was introduced in times of financial distress… Continue reading
