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UK house prices set to keep rising in 2016 due to shortage of supply
House prices in the UK are set to continue rising during 2016 due to a lack of available housing stock in the property market, according to the latest index report. There are 47% fewer properties currently for sale than in December 2007 and 16.1% fewer than in December 2014, the data from Home.co.uk’s asking price index shows. The firm says that this is creating ‘a vicious circle’ of price hikes that are set to continue throughout 2016, and follows a rise of 8% in England and Wales' property prices in 2015. Already, regions with the biggest shortages of available housing for sale are experiencing the quickest price rises, with the East of England in particular set for continued rapid price hikes next year. Overall the firm is predicting price growth of 9% in England and Wales with the highest of 13% in the East of England, followed by 12% in the South East, 9% in Greater London and 7% in both Scotland and the West Midlands. The rest of the country is likely to see more moderate growth with just 1% in the North East, 2% in Wales, the North West and Yorkshire and Humber and 6% in the East Midlands and the South West. A breakdown of the data shows that between November 2010 and November 2015, the supply of property in the East slumped by 27%, while prices in the region increased by 10.6% over 2015. Scotland's housing supply fell by 13% between November 2010 and November 2015. Other areas where the supply of properties for sale dried up over the same period include the East Midlands, which saw a fall of 12%, and the West Midlands, where supply dropped by 11%. The South East is another region to experience a drought in the volume of property for sale, with supply falling 10% over the same period while only two areas saw an increase in housing stock for sale between November 2010 and November 2015 with a rise of supply of 10% in Yorkshire and the Humber and 2% in Wales. For 2016, Home.co.uk is predicting a similar range of regional price rises as seen in 2015. However, due to further contractions in supply, the East of England and the South East are expected to outperform Greater London over the next 12 months. Buyers in Scotland, the West and East Midlands and the South West are advised to brace themselves for a year of rapid price growth as the supply crisis ripples out to these regions. Meanwhile, typical time on the market has also fallen due to this imbalance between high demand and low supply. In England and Wales, the typical time on the market in December this year is 104 days, compared to 110 days a year ago. ‘Next year is set to see the vicious circle of spiralling prices and falling supply deepen even further as buyers take advantage of cheap credit to chase ever fewer properties,’ said the firm’s… Continue reading
CML figures shows dip in UK mortgage lending in November
Gross mortgage lending in the UK reached £19.9 billion in November, some 9% lower than October’s lending total of £21.9 billion, the latest data shows. But the figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders also show that lending was still 23% higher than the £16.1 billion lent in November last year. CML economist Mohammad Jamei pointed out that lending is set to finish the year stronger than it started, with the pace of lending recovering over the summer months. ‘As we’ve said for the best part of 2015, lending continues to be supported by strong fundamentals, which are low inflation, strong wage growth, an improving labour market and competitive mortgage deals,’ he said. ‘Reflecting this recovery, we estimate lending this year to reach £214 billion, up from our earlier estimate of £209 billion. Looking ahead, upside potential appears limited as a result of affordability pressures and new supply challenges which will continue to weigh on activity,’ he added. Peter Rollings, chief executive of Marsh & Parsons, believes that a seasonal slowdown at the end of the year is to be expected although the strengthening economy and favourable lending conditions means that sales haven’t tailed off like they did last year. ‘The recent measures announced by the Government to build new homes and offer help to those looking to take their first step on the property ladder are welcome gestures, but it will be some time before this intervention is evident in the various monthly indices,’ he explained. ‘The powers that be also need to be careful of artificially stimulating the market at the bottom end while continuing to penalise those in the upper reaches,’ he added. Adrian Gill, director of Reeds Rains and Your Move estate agents, believes that mortgage lending has been good over the past year, with loan values showing a huge annual margin in November. ‘When we consider that many of these loans will have been agreed before the added impact of the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement housing announcements, it bodes well for early performance in 2016,’ he said. He pointed out that demand is high, remortgaging activity continues to pick up and first time buyers are benefitting from competitive mortgage rates while the buy to let market has been the most dynamic recently. ‘With a new stamp duty levy for second homes coming into play next April, there will only be a further rush to secure buy to let investment before the cost of completing a purchase rises,’ he said. But he also pointed out that this will pit landlords against first time buyers even more. ‘As the deadline creeps closer, we may see another trend emerge in the spring as canny buy to let investors seize the opportunity to sell up and profit from the triple whammy of impending tax changes, low supply of homes, and high demand. Demand is accelerating, and there will be jostling for a decreased number of properties available on the market. So it will… Continue reading
Number of British homes worth £1 million or more up 14% since beginning of year
The number of home owners in Britain whose property is worth £1 million or more has increased by 75,796 or 14% since January, according to the latest research. This 14% rise over the past year takes the total number of British so called property millionaires to 622,939, and means that 2.2% of all home owners have a property worth £1 million or more, up 1.9% over the past year. Of these million pound home some 82% are situated in London and the South East, a breakdown of the data from property website Zoopla shows. But Wales has the fewest and the number in Scotland have fallen by 4.5%. London, long the nation’s property powerhouse, has once again dominated the property millionaire league, with well over half (61%) of Britain’s million-pound piles located in the capital. In total, 380,337 homes in the city are now above the million-pound threshold, marking a 33,871 – or 10% increase – since the start of the year. Within London the boroughs with the highest number of property millionaires are notoriously expensive areas such as Westminster with 51,607 and Kensington and Chelsea with 44,972 but they have seen the smallest rise in £1 million plus properties of any borough over the past year, up just 0.9% and 0.6% respectively. Meanwhile, the boroughs that experienced the greatest increases of over 55% are within the top 10 lowest average priced boroughs in London including Barking and Dagenham, Newham, Redbridge and Waltham Forest, Outside of London, the East of England and Yorkshire and the Humber saw the largest increases of million pound properties, up 28% and 24% respectively since January. At the other end of the spectrum, Wales has the fewest million pound properties in Britain with only 1,404 in total despite, an 11% rise since January. Scotland was the only country to see a decrease in number of million pound homes in 2015, falling 4.5% to below 9,000 since the start of the year. ‘It's interesting to see that areas such as the East of England and Yorkshire have seen bigger percentage rises in the numbers of property millionaires over the last 12 months compared with the south which typically dominates each year,’ said Lawrence Hall of Zoopla. ‘However the number of properties valued at more than £1 million in the south still outweigh the rest of Britain boosted by wealthy hotspots such as Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster,’ he pointed out. ‘With an improving economy and the ongoing lack of housing supply, this continues to put upward pressure on house prices at all levels of the market and has nudged a whole new raft of properties over the £1 million mark. A price tag that was once the exclusive preserve of stately homes or massive mansions is now an increasingly common label for more modest houses, particularly in London,’ he added. Continue reading
