TSI
Property price growth in Sydney and Melbourne to slow in 2016
Property price growth in Sydney and Melbourne is expected to slow in 2016 as prices have peaked, according to an outlook report from the Housing Industry Association (HIA). It points out that as of November pries had increased in Sydney by 12.8% year on year and in Melbourne by 11.8% year on year. Then there was a huge gap to Brisbane where prices increased by 4% year on year. ‘The aggregate price cycle, heavily masked by Sydney and Melbourne, will continue to experience decelerating growth. Sydney and Melbourne are the two biggest markets and it is appropriate that price growth is slowing,’ the HIA report says. It points out that variable mortgage rates are on the rise and this is likely to dampen price growth. Overall the market was busy in 2015 for residential construction with new home commencements reaching a record high of nearly 212,000 in 2014/2015 and are forecast to exceed 200,000 in 2015/2016. ‘If we can progress right through 2016 with commencements holding up at an annualised level above 180, 000, and we forecast that will happen, that outcome should be regarded as a healthy one,’ the report explains. Indeed, new dwelling commencements increased for a third consecutive year in 2014/2015, only the fifth time in the past 60 years that housing starts have seen three straight years of growth. The record level of nearly 212,000 starts is 13% than the previous high of 187,000 in 1994. It adds that new home building is set for another healthy year ahead. Continue reading
Scottish farm land market subdued but the best still sells well
Weak commodity prices, increased acres on the market and reduced subsides have subdued the Scottish farmland market yet, a new analysis report suggests. But the very best land has continued to achieve record prices, according to the latest data from real estate firm Savills. The statistics also shows that supply in Scotland was up by 23% this year in the 12 months to the end of September to 37,000 acres compared with the same period last year. ‘With UK farm debt at a record high, and prospects for improved commodity prices looking gloomy, more farms are likely to appear on the market in 2016 and this may have an impact on land values,’ said Luke French of Savills. ‘However with farmland supply at record lows, the fundamentals for why land is a good long term investment remain the same,’ he added. The Savills report says that there is a margin of around 20% to 30% between the average price per acre for prime arable land in England compared to Scotland and that is continuing to attract national interest in Scotland’s farms from those seeking to expand their farming businesses. Despite a good harvest in terms of yield, changes to the support system and continued poor commodity prices have created a tougher market, the report points out and units are taking longer to sell as more due diligence is undertaken and funding arranged. At the same time, it adds that buyers have become more discerning, resulting in a more fragile market and values out with local hot spots have plateaued across the board and are under pressure, as has been evident in some recent sales. ‘What is very evident is the resulting regional variation in average land values across all land types. Best in class continues to sell and sell well,’ said French. He gave as an in the Spring of 2015 in the lead up to the General Election in early May when Mains of Ravensby, a 190 acre arable farm on Angus, sold in five weeks after a highly competitive closing date, at a record price per acre. According to Savills buyers of Scottish farms continue to be predominantly farmers, many with funds from renewable projects and development land, in contrast to the English market where the lifestyle buyer has returned to the list of active purchasers in 2015. Continue reading
Downsizing is seen as too expensive for many retired home owners in UK
Downsizing is not an option for many home owners in the UK, with stamp duty, legal costs and move costs discouraging people from moving to a smaller property, new research shows. The average equity release customer has lived in their home for 21.8 years before cashing in on their property wealth, says the analysis from over 55s retirement specialist Key Retirement. But pensioners in London own their homes for nearly 26 years before accessing the wealth and the report also reveals that nearly one in three who release equity have lived in their homes for 30 years or more. The firm believes this illustrates why, for many, downsizing is simply not an option. Indeed, home owners who bought in early 1993 have seen average UK prices rise from £60,850 to around £203,800, a rise of nearly £143,000, while Londoners buying in 1989 will have seen average prices rocket from £96,130 to around £408,000 giving them gains of around £312,000. Retired home owners trying to downsize to release wealth typically face stamp duty of 2% on the proportion of a home’s value over £125,000, rising to 5% for the proportion over £250,000. ‘Stamp duty, legal and removal fees and the cost of turning their next house into a home make downsizing an expensive option for many,’ said Dean Mirfin, technical director at Key Retirement. ‘The upheaval and risks of losing touch with friends and family as well as local services, including healthcare, can all impact negatively on the decision to move, as well as the fact that these homeowners are very attached to their homes, which they have invested in for many years,’ he added. Cost and other issues aside, the difficulty of finding a suitable home to move to is cited by many as a key driver in them wanting to stay put and reinvest in their current property, many choosing to future proof their home to be suitable for them as they age, the research also suggests. Market analysis shows the number of homes for sale has slumped to a record low in November adding to the struggle for older homeowners to find a suitable home to move to. ‘Downsizing is logical and sensible and should work in theory for many but turning the theory into practice is tougher than it seems and the theory overlooks a wide range of issues that are important to retired home owners,’ said Mirfin. ‘Equity release customers are accessing an average of nearly £75,000 from their property wealth without having to tackle the financial and emotional issues involved in moving home. The average customer has owned their home for nearly 22 years and has clearly benefited from house price growth but prefers to stay in their house rather than going through the upheaval and costs of moving,’ he explained. ‘Until we are building the right sort of properties and in the right quantities both the math and availability to facilitate downsizing remain a huge challenge,’ he added. Continue reading
