TSI
New home building in Australia reaches new high
New home building starts reached a new high in Australia in the third quarter of last year which is being hailed as good news for the country’s economy. The data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that they hit a quarterly record of 55,432. The high if 215,329 for the 12 months to September 2015 is some 15% up on the previous peak in 1994. ‘It is a stellar result not only for the residential construction industry, but for the wider economy. New home construction has posted one of its longest upcycles in history, providing substantial support to Australia’s economic output and levels of employment,’ said Harley Dale, chief economist of the Housing Industry Association (HIA). ‘We need a visionary outlook regarding the homes Australia has to build over the coming decades to house its growing and ageing population, while not forgetting to celebrate the fact that new home construction and its massive spinoff benefits has propped up the Australian economy at a time when no other sector has come to the party,’ he added. But there are considerable regional variations. A breakdown of the figures shows that new starts increased by 17.4% in the Northern Territory but only 2.4% in New South Wales, 1.7% in Western Australia, 1.2% in South Australia and 0.4% in ACT. At the other end of the scale new building starts fell by 20.7% in Tasmania, by 3.8% in Victoria and by 1% in Queensland, the ABS data also shows. Meanwhile, the latest housing finance figures for November 2015 show that total lending activity increased during the month, but still remains below the high point reached in August of last year. The value of investor lending increased by 0.7% in November, but was 7.7% lower than a year earlier. The value of owner occupier lending, net of refinancing was up by 1.7% and is some 22.8% higher than a year earlier. ‘This is a positive update for Australia’s housing sector, showing that lending activity remained healthy toward the end of last year. Lending activity among investors is still below what appears to be the cyclical peak back in April last year. More strength is evident in the owner occupier segment of the market, with the latest level of lending activity on par with recent highs,’ said HIA economist, Diwa Hopkins. She pointed out that the ABS figures also highlight that owner occupiers remain active in the new housing market, with the value of lending to those purchasing or constructing a new dwelling up by 0.7% during the month to 8.8% higher than a year previously. ‘These signals from housing finance are consistent with other indicators pointing to very healthy levels of activity in the residential construction sector in early 2016,’ added Hopkins. A breakdown of the figures show that new home lending to owner occupiers varied widely. It was up 96.6% in the Northern Territory, up 9.7% in… Continue reading
UK home owners confident about prices rises in 2016, latest sentiment index shoes
Households across the UK expect house prices to rise in 2016 believe that the value of their home rose in December, according to the latest research. People in London perceived the strongest rate of price growth over the course of the month, while households in the North West reported the most modest rate of growth, the data from the House Price Sentiment Index from Knight Frank and Markit Economics. The strongest growth expectation was in the East of England but the rate of growth expected over the next year eased in six of the 11 regions in January. The figures shows that 20.9% of the 1,500 households surveyed across the UK said that the value of their home had risen over the last month, while 3.6% said that prices had fallen. This resulted in a HPSI reading of 58.7. This is the thirty fourth consecutive month that the reading has been above 50. Any figure over 50 indicates that prices are rising, and the higher the figure, the stronger the increase. Any figure below 50 indicates that prices are falling. January’s reading was a slight decrease from the 59.4 recorded in December, but returns the index to the same level as seen in November. It is just slightly higher the average reading of 58.5 recorded throughout 2015, but remains below the peak of 63.2 in May 2014, reflecting the easing in average UK house price growth seen since then. Households in all of the 11 regions covered by the index reported that prices rose in January, led by households in London at 68.1 and the South East at 64.3, although in both cases these sentiment index readings were slightly lower than in December. The current sentiment index was lowest for the North West at 51.3 and the East Midlands at 52.3, indicating that households in these regions perceived the most modest rise in prices across the UK in January. The future HPSI, which measures what households think will happen to the value of their property over the next year, rose slightly in January to 70.5 from December’s 70.3. This is the highest reading since June 2015, but remains below the peak of 75.1 reached in May 2014. Households in the East of England chalked up a record high reading for future house prices expectations at 81.1, indicating they anticipate the largest increase in the value of their home over the next 12 months. Londoners at 79.1 continue to expect strong growth in prices over the next year, with the highest reading for the region since May 2014. Meanwhile, there was a notable drop in the future reading for the North West, down from 67.5 to 62.3 in January, as well as Scotland, which fell to 61.8, down from 65.8 in December, and an average reading of 65.1 throughout 2015. Mortgage borrowers are the most confident that prices will rise over the next year at 76, followed by those who own their… Continue reading
Rents in England and Wales see fastest annual growth since 2011
The private rental sector in England and Wales has seen its fastest year for rent rises since 2011, with values up 3.4% in 2015, the latest index data shows. The rise took average rents to £794 per month with the East of England seeing rents rise at twice the wider annual pace, up 7.8%, followed by London at 6.3%. The data from the Your Move buy to let index also shows that Yorkshire & Humber and West Midlands both saw new all-time record high rents in December. The significant rent rises over the course of 2015 also come despite a month on month drop in the latest market rents, falling 0.6% between November and December. ‘The fact that the majority of tenants can afford higher rents is certainly good news, and should be seen as a positive indicator as we enter 2016. Yet over the longer term, higher rents also raise a serious challenge for the future affordability of housing in this country,’ said Adrian Gill, director of estate agents Reeds Rains and Your Move. A breakdown of the figures shows that in December, six out of 10 regions saw monthly falls in rents, in line with the overall month on month drop across England and Wales. This was led by London with rents down 1.6% lower, down 0.9% in the North West and down 0.6% in the North East. Four regions saw rents rise on a monthly basis in December, led by Wales at 1.8%, followed by the South West up 0.9%, and Yorkshire and Humber and the West Midlands both up 0.3%. This took rents in both Yorkshire and Humber and the West Midlands to all-time record highs at £556 and £593 per month respectively. Year on year rents increased in eight out of 10 regions led by the East of England with a rise of 7.8%, London up 6.3%, and the East Midlands up 4.7%. Rents fell by 1% in Wales and by 2.6% in the South East. The index also shows that the gross yield on a typical rental property in England and Wales, before taking into account factors such as void periods, dropped to 4.9% in November, down from 5% in November 2015. On an annual basis, this is fractionally lower than the 5.1% gross yield seen in December 2014. The report points out that accelerating property purchase prices are responsible for suppressing rental yields, but have also boosted landlords’ total returns. Taking into account both rental income and such capital growth, the average landlord in England and Wales has seen total returns of 11.3% over the course of 2015, up from 10.4% in the 12 months to November 2015 and the highest for a year. In absolute terms this means that the average landlord in England and Wales has seen a return of £21,110 during 2015, before any deductions such as property maintenance and mortgage payments. Of this, the average capital gain contributed £12,438 while rental income made… Continue reading
