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Spanish property prices up and down according to location, latest index suggests
While most experts agree that the Spanish residential property market is well into recovery, there is unlikely to be much of an increase in prices. Indeed the latest house price index from property portal Fotocasa suggests that prices are on an up and down trajectory but with no big surprise. Asking prices fell 0.8% in 2015, down from an average of €1,632 per square meter in 2014 to €1,619 per square meter as of December 2015, according to the Fotocasa index. However, Marc Stucklin, of Spanish Property Insight pointed out that last year’s house price decline was the smallest since the crisis began and this provides more evidence that the Spanish house price crash has come to an end. For example, a year ago prices were still falling by 5.7%, and by 10.% in 2012 and property prices while not rising overall, are increasing in certain locations. Beatriz Toribio, head of research as Fotocasa, an increase in mortgage lending is helping to boost the market at a time when prices are still relatively cheap compared to before the meltdown after the global economic crisis of 2007. The data shows prices rose the most last year in the Balearics with growth of 3.3%, followed by La Rioja up 2.4%, Madrid up 1.4% and Andalusia and Galicia both up 0.7%. ‘We are witnessing a two speed market. Whilst there are parts of Catalonia, Madrid, and the Balearics, where prices have bottomed out, in places like Castile-La Mancha and Extremadura, there is still plenty of room to fall,’ explained Toribio. There are also variations within cities. ‘In Madrid and Barcelona prices are consolidating their recovery, but on the outskirts of those cities the evolution is more unequal,’ added Toribio. Since the peak of the market in 2007 prices have fallen 45.2% overall. The biggest decline has been in La Rioja where prices are down 55.1% from peak, Castile-La Mancha down 52.6%, Navarre down 52.5%, Aragon down 52%, Murcia down 49.9%, and Valencia down 48.3%. Prices have fallen the least in Galicia with a decline of 31.5%, down 33.1% in the Balearics, down 36.3% in Castile and Leon and down 37.3% in the Basque Country, according to the Fotocasa data. ‘Prices look to be more or less stable, but still slightly negative at the end of 2015, with little sign of upward pressure on the horizon,’ said Stucklin, who added that big regional variations exist. Continue reading
UK house price growth continues in first month of 2016
House prices in the UK increased by 2.2% in the last three months compared with the previous quarter taking the average value to £212,430. The January index data from lender the Halifax also shows that prices were up 9.7% year on year and up 1.7% in compared with December 2015. Martin Ellis, Halifax housing economist, pointed out that the quarterly rate of change increased following two successive months below 2% and the annual rate has been in a narrow range between 8% and 10% for nearly the whole period since the start of 2015. ‘The imbalance between supply and demand continues to exert significant upward pressure on house prices. This situation looks set to persist over the coming months. Further ahead, increasing affordability issues, as price increases continue to exceed wage growth, are likely to curb housing demand and cause price growth to ease,’ he said. He also pointed out confidence in the housing market remains strong, according to the latest quarterly Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker. Despite declining steadily since last May, house price optimism in the final quarter of 2015 continued to show that a majority of people believe that average UK property prices will be higher 12 months from now. Price growth is largely due to a lack of supply, according to Randeesh Sandhu, chief executive officer of residential development finance provider Urban Exposure. He also pointed out that there could be an increase in activity before the new second home stamp duty tax increases in April. He said that the lack of supply continues to be constrained by developers having a lack of access to finance as well as a shortage of key materials and a skilled workforce. ‘Far more needs to be done to boost development, particularly in London where average house prices in over half of London neighbourhoods are now £500,000 or more,’ he added. Rob Weaver, director of Investments at property crowdfunding platform Property Partner, also believes that supply is the main driver in the housing markets. He also explained that while sales in central London have dropped off the outer boroughs are seeing increased activity. ‘Potential buyers are hunting for more affordable housing, attracted by regeneration in places like Thamesmead and Woolwich, and of course, Crossrail. We’re also seeing a spike in activity in the market as buy to let landlords rush to seal deals before the stamp duty 3% hike in April,’ he explained. ‘After that it is less clear as the spectre of cuts in mortgage tax relief looms next year. But wage growth is just not keeping pace with house prices, and that raises the serious question of affordability. Demand may start to drop leading to a softening of prices. An eventual interest rate rise, possibly at the end of the year, may also lead to a correction in the market,’ he added. Jonathan Hopper, managing director of buying agents Garrington Property Finders, pointed out that the buy to let… Continue reading
Call for UK wide housing review to access impact of buy let tax change
A long term, strategic comprehensive review of housing policy and housing need in the UK is needed as recent changes are set to distort the property market, it is claimed. In particular, the Government ought to recognise the contribution of private landlords as tax changes could seriously affect the buy to let market to the detriment of those who cannot or choose not to buy a home. In a response to the Government’s new stamp duty regime for second homes, Paragon Mortgages says that there should be a comprehensive review looking at the housing dynamics over the last 30 years. ‘Whilst we agree that support for home buyers is an important strand of housing policy, if the interests of home buyers are prioritised above the interests of those in the Social Rented Sector (SRS) and the Private Rented Sector (PRS), then serious distortions may arise as a result to the detriment of those who cannot afford to buy or choose not to buy,’ the document says. ‘Policy changes that may result in reduced supply of properties to the PRS, risk driving up rents and constraining choice to the disbenefit of those who rely on the PRS for a home without delivering corresponding benefits in owner occupation,’ it explains. The document also says that there are more significant structural issues at play in the heart of the housing market so the review is needed to look at housing provision across all tenures. Paragon has been operating in the buy to let market since the inception of this specialist finance for landlords in 1995 and says that it has extensive experience of the market, a deep understanding of how landlords operate and how important buy to let finance is to the supply of property to the PRS. ‘What the Government appears to be overlooking with their focus on driving up home ownership, is that regardless of aspiration, home ownership is not a suitable solution for everyone. Some demographics need and want to live in the PRS because it best suits a variety of their individual requirements including lifestyle choice and financial capability,’ said John Heron, director of mortgages at Paragon. ‘The proposed 3% increase in Stamp Duty will not bring the market to a grinding halt and is unlikely to deter most landlords from their current, immediate investment plans but it will undoubtedly impact on some landlords’ future plans for growing their portfolios,’ he explained. ‘Our fundamental issue with these changes and also the proposed changes to tax relief of mortgage finance is that private landlords provide a valuable contribution to the wider housing market mix and this is not being recognised,’ he added. ‘With a declining social housing sector and with more people choosing not to buy their own home, it is important that the service the PRS provides is not overlooked,’ he concluded. Continue reading
