TSI
Homes for sales in UK slump to 14 year low
The supply of available housing in the UK is at its lowest level in 14 years with buy to let landlords rushing to complete ahead of tax change, new research shows. Property investors are trying to avoid the additional 3% stamp duty charge on buy to let and second homes from 01 April, according to the report from the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) but sales to first time buyers are also up. The January Housing Market report shows that the number of properties available per member branch fell to 33 in January, the lowest recorded since December 2002 when just 25 properties were available per member branch. In contrast, demand for housing soared in January, with an average 453 house hunters registered per branch, the highest recorded since July 2015 and a 21% increase from December when there were an average 374 registered, during a seasonal lull in activity. This reflects increased activity from landlords pushing to complete sales ahead of the upcoming buy to let stamp duty surcharge, the report suggests. Indeed, 72% of estate agents reported an increase in interest from landlords, a rise from 44% in December. Almost a third, 29%, of the total sales made in January were to first time buyers, an increase of 5% from December 2015, the report also shows. ‘Our findings this month reflect what we are all seeing across the market which is that landlords are trying to complete on sales ahead of the changes to stamp duty on additional homes in April. It continues to be a sellers’ market as demand outstrips supply,’ said Mark Hayward, NAEA managing director. ‘The number of sales made to firs time buyers has increased this month, and we should expect to see their market share rise after April. The fact that housing supply has reached a 14 year low really highlights the need for the government to push the house building programme to the very top of their agenda and help more first time buyers make their first step on to the housing ladder,’ he added. Continue reading
Brexit threat should not hamper Brits buying in France
British people looking to buy a property in France this year are being urged not to worry about the vote on the UK staying in the European Union due to take place in June. There have been scare stories about what might happen if the UK leave the EU bit according to agents in France very little is likely to change. Indeed, they are reporting an uptick in inquiries which suggests that in reality potential buyers are not worried. According to Trevor Leggett, chairman of Leggett Immobilier which has agents across France, there has been no slowdown in demand from UK purchasers and activity is 40% higher than 12 months ago which was a record year. ‘Our view is that even if the vote was to leave the EU there would be little in the way of substantial change. The polls suggest it will be tight but tipped towards an In vote,’ said Leggett. According to Sextant French property even if the public vote to leave the EU nothing would happen suddenly. There would be a period of negotiations over benefits, pensions and healthcare which might affect expats but not necessarily second home owners. The firm has just reported a record year with an estimated 800,000 sales made in 2015, and buyers are making the most of current market conditions which include favourable exchange rates, low mortgage rates and low prices. ‘A Brexit would not stop you from buying your dream house across the Channel. Nany non-EU buyers from as far flung destinations as Australia and China already buy in France undeterred. The Brexit uncertainties lie largely in tax arrangements, obtaining mortgages and the potential weakening of the pound,’ said a Sextant spokesman. ‘Tax arrangements will depend on negotiations in the grace period following the referendum, though happily double taxation agreements will remain unchanged, ensuring you will never be taxed twice on your income,’ he explained. ‘In the short term run up to the referendum certainly, the pound could drop as uncertainty and instability will always disturb the markets to some extent. Once an outcome has been reached, we can hope that the markets have enough confidence to begin to level out,’ he added. For British people living in France there may not be much change. If the UK votes to leave it is highly likely that it will become a member of the European Economic Area (EEA). Iceland and Norway are already members. EEA membership could also result in retention of the European Health Insurance Card (EHIC) card and thus access to healthcare at the same rate as currently. The UK has never been part of the Schengen agreement of totally free border control so nothing would change. ‘Whichever way the UK votes, at Sextant we don't believe British interest in buying French property will be dampened, nor do we believe that the dream will become unattainable or unviable,’ he concluded. Continue reading
Sales fall in key UK cities and prices start to plateau
Sales in 20 key cities across the UK fell by 2% in the last 12 months but prices have continued to rise, up 10.2% from a year ago, the latest price index shows. London has seen a 7% fall in transactions while Cambridge has seen sales fall by 20%, according to the UK cities house price index from Hometrack. Overall city level house price inflation has increased from 8.6% a year ago largely due to constricted supply. The average UK city house price currently stands at £231,700 ranging from £109,000 in Glasgow to £455,000 across London. However, there are signs that the annual rate of growth in high growth cities in southern England is starting to plateau as the level of housing sales slows and affordability pressures on would-be buyers increase. The report suggest that uncertainty around the forthcoming European Union referendum is likely to slow activity further. Questions remain as to the level to which the campaign will influence households’ decision making and overall levels of housing market activity. The Brexit referendum comes at a time when other policy measures such as higher stamp duty for investors and second home owners are expected to impact market activity from investors who accounted for one in five sales in 2015. ‘Slower growth in sales volumes has been a trend seen over the last three years across the high value, high growth cities such as Cambridge, Oxford, Aberdeen and London where house prices have been rising for six consecutive years,’ said Richard Donnell, Insight Director at Hometrack. ‘High housing and moving costs are limiting access to the market for a growing number of households which, in our view, will result in lower turnover and slower house price growth,’ he added. He believes that the EU referendum adds further complexity to an already complex outlook. ‘Our analysis shows that the Scottish referendum, and the 18 month campaign that preceded it, resulted in 10% fewer transactions and slower house price growth over the period relative to England,’ said Donnell. ‘The shorter run up to the EU vote will help but the true impact will depend on how quickly the campaigning focuses on the economic ramifications for UK households and the knock on effect for housing related decisions as Scotland proved. A vote to remain in the EU should see a return to business as usual whereas a vote to leave will create additional uncertainty,’ he explained. ‘After a three year upturn in housing market activity and house prices the outlook for the market appears increasingly tied up with policy impacts and the potential outcome of the referendum rather than the operation of market forces. Businesses operating in housing face risk and uncertainty which will have to be managed and monitored carefully,’ he added. Continue reading
