TSI
Property sales in UK set to slowdown when buy to let surge ends
The UK housing market is set to slow down over the next three months following a short term rush on buy to let properties, says the latest report from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. The monthly survey report from RICS also shows that house price inflation peaked last December ahead of an anticipated rush to beat buy to let tax rises which come into force on 01 April. Once the 3% surcharge on additional homes, which include buy to let and second homes, is in place, RICS predicts that there will be more modest growth in property sales. While 74% of survey respondents expected there to be a rush on buy to let purchases ahead of Stamp Duty increases only 17% (net balance) expected to see an increase in sales over the coming three months. In addition, while house price inflation expectations peaked following the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement, with prices driven by speculation regarding an increase in investor demand, RICS says that this trend is set to soften from March as investor interest dampens. Only 21% of respondents expect prices to increase over the coming months. The survey showed that house prices continued to creep up throughout February. Across the UK, East Anglia continues to show the sharpest price increases, with 91% of respondents reporting that prices had risen over the past month. London and the North East by way of contrast saw very modest gains while the South West has seen the highest rise in sales across the UK for the last three months and 49% of respondents experienced a rise in sales rather than a fall and further increases are expected over the year ahead. New instructions to sell also increased more sharply in the South West than anywhere else in the UK as 34% of surveyors saw an increase in new listings rather than a decrease. New buyer enquiries in the South West rose for the twelfth month in succession with 49% more respondents seeing an increase in demand rather than a fall, the highest in the UK. However, uncertainty weighs on London’s housing market. Price expectations have turned negative in prime central parts of the capital and after sharp periods of inflation, London house prices look set to stabilize. Overall outer London boroughs remain firmly positive and Zone one properties are showing signs of a downturn. ‘Anecdotal evidence has suggested that a combination of exogenous factors is contributing to the overall picture in prime London, with tax changes, foreign market slowdowns and uncertainty over Brexit all being mooted as potential reasons behind the changes in demand,’ said Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist. ‘This is not necessarily indicative of the long term market and the depreciation of the pound could encourage overseas investors back in to the market as could the outcome of the European referendum,’ he explained. He pointed out that the challenges facing the top end of London’s property market are clearly visible in the latest results. ‘However, it is… Continue reading
UK home lending was broadly flat in January, latest CML data shows
Home buying lending in the UK was flat in January but remortgaging activity was boosted by a plethora of low deals, the latest published figures suggest. The data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders, now available on an unadjusted basis for the first time, gives a more complete picture as it makes it easier to spot underlying trends, according to Paul Smee, CML director general. He explained that while the unadjusted data appears to show large falls month on month, stripping out the usual January lull gives a different picture. ‘We see a general picture of flat house purchase lending but a significant uptick in remortgage activity as borrowers continue to seek attractive new deals despite the lower for longer expectations for interest rates,’ Smee said. On an unadjusted basis, the figures shows that home owners borrowed £8.4 billion for house purchase, down 25% month on month but up 12% year on year. They took out 46,200 loans, down 27% on December but up 5% on January 2015. First time buyers borrowed £3.3 billion in January, down 27% on December but up 14% on January last year. This totalled 21,400 loans, down 28% month on month but up 6% year on year. Home movers borrowed £5.1 billion, down 24% on December but up 11% compared to a year ago. This totalled 24,800 loans, down 26% month on month but up 3% on January 2015. Home owner remortgagors borrowed £5.8 billion, up 35% on December and 32% compared to a year ago. This totalled 33,100 loans, up 28% month on month and 19% compared to a year ago. Landlords borrowed £3.7 billion in January, up 9% month on month and 42% year on year. This came to 23,100 loans in total, of which 13,400 were for remortgage, up 3% compared to December and up 31% compared to January 2015. Peter Rollings, chief executive officer of Marsh & Parsons, pointed out that with interest rate rises postponed into next year or beyond, remortgaging activity is going from strength to strength, reaching its highest monthly level for seven years. ‘Landlords are in more of a hurry, and don’t have long left to snap up investment properties before being struck with more debilitating stamp duty. As a result, this storming growth in buy to let borrowing is likely to be short lived, and be balanced out by a more sedate second quarter of the year,’ he said. ‘But Government support schemes have proved a tonic for first time buyers, and this is likely to provide good vitals throughout 2016 as a whole. Existing home owners should be feeling revived too, as house prices show healthy improvements, triggering many to make the plunge and start trading up. It’s supply of homes on the property market that is the fly in the ointment currently, and is the biggest threat to quashing this confidence,’ he added. David Whittaker, managing director of Mortgages for Businesses, explained that in the… Continue reading
Negative equity rate falls to 13.1% in the US in fourth quarter of 2015
Fewer home owners in the United States were underwater as the negative equity rate fell to 13.1% in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the latest data to be published. But more than 820,000 underwater home owners still owe over twice as much on their mortgages as their homes are worth, a reminder that some owners may not see positive equity in their homes in the foreseeable future. The data from the Zillow Negative Equity Report also shows that six million home owners were still in negative equity, which means they owe the bank more than their homes are worth. A year ago eight million home owners were upside down on their mortgages. The report explains that over time, negative equity can act as an anchor on a housing market, preventing underwater homeowners from listing their homes and re-entering the market. It is more prevalent in less expensive areas that are affordable to first time buyers. Without these homes available, many potential buyers are side lined and unable to take advantage of mortgage rates that remain near historic lows. It also points out that in the past year, millions of underwater home owners resurfaced as the total amount of negative equity declined by $75 billion, but some owners are so far underwater that positive equity may be several years away, leaving them stuck in their homes unable to sell. ‘Even though the number of underwater homeowners has fallen significantly since the peak of the housing crisis, negative equity persists in many markets as it fell at its slowest pace in a year,’ said Zillow chief economist Svenja Gudell. ‘Things are moving in the right direction, but some owners are still deeply underwater. As we move into the home shopping season, inventory is already low, and negative equity is keeping potential additional stock from becoming available,’ she added. Las Vegas still had the highest rate of negative equity at 20.9% followed closely by Chicago, where 20.5% of home owners were upside down on their mortgages. At the other end of the spectrum, in San Jose only 2.8% of mortgaged home owners were underwater. Continue reading
