TSI
Official data shows home building starts falling in England in first quarter of 2016
The UK government has pledged to build a million new homes in the next five years but the latest construction figures show that in the first quarter of 2016 building starts were down. The data from the Department of Communities and Local Government (DGLC), shows that there were 35,530 house building starts in England, down 3% when compared to the final quarter of 2015. Completions were estimated at 32,950, some 9% lower than the previous quarter and 3% lower than a year ago while annual housing starts totalled 139,680 in 2015/2016, up by 12% compared with 2014/2015. This highlights that the first three months of 2016 saw a slowdown’ A breakdown of the figures show that private enterprise housing starts were 3% lower in the March quarter of 2016 compared to the previous quarter whereas completions were 7% lower. Starts by housing associations were 9% lower compared to the last quarter and completions 24% lower. Overall starts are now 107% above the trough in the March quarter of 2009 but 27% below the March quarter 2007 peak. Completions are 33% above the trough in the March quarter 2013 and 32% below their March quarter 2007 peak. Starts were broadly steady from 2003/2004, averaging around 44,000 units each quarter until late 2007. Starts were strongly affected by the economic downturn from the start of 2008 when there was a period of rapid decline to a trough in the March quarter of 2009. Completions increased gradually from 2003/2004 reaching a similar level to starts by 2007. Completions fell more slowly than starts during the downturn, but over a longer period. The data reveals that from 2009 starts began to recover and during the next two years both series converged and levelled out. More recently, despite fluctuations, starts and completions have started to grow again gradually. The slower start to the year is echoed in figures from the National House Building Council (NHBC) which show a fall of 8% in new home registrations with the NHBC over the past three months compared with the previous three. During the quarter there were 25,133 new home plots registered in the private sector, a 10% decrease compared to last year’s 27,809. In the public sector there were 8,118 new homes registered, which is a 3% decrease compared to last year’s 8,402. However, there was an increase in February. The 12,181 new homes registered in February 2016 was 4% higher than in February 2015. February’s total was made up of 9,632 private sector homes and 2,549 from the public sector. Growth came entirely from the private sector which saw an increase of 6% compared to the same period last year. There were 33,251 new home registrations in the rolling quarter December 2015 to February 2016, fall of 8% on the same period 12 months ago. By contrast, the number of completions continues to rise, up 6% on the same period 12 months ago. As the leading warranty and insurance provider for new… Continue reading
Home lending in Wales up year on year but down on quarterly basis
Lending to home owners in Wales increased by 25% year on year in the first quarter of 2016, according to the latest data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML). On an unadjusted basis home owners borrowed £850 million, but while this was up 29% year on year it was down 16% quarter on quarter. They took out 6,600 loans, down 16% on the previous quarter but up 25% compared to the first quarter of 2015. First time buyers borrowed £330 million, down 20% on the fourth quarter 2015 but up 22% on the same period last year. This totalled 3,000 loans, down 19% quarter on quarter but up 20% year on year. The average age of a first time buyer is now 29 years old. Home movers borrowed £530 million, down 12% on the fourth quarter 2015 but up 36% compared to a year ago. This totalled 3,600 loans, down 14% quarter on quarter but up 29% year on year. Remortgage activity totalled £420 million, down 2% quarter four but up 20% compared to a year ago. This came to 3,700 loans, down 3% quarter on quarter but up 12% year on year. ‘The first quarter of the year typically sees a seasonal lending dip, but the year on year growth in activity in all lending types is encouraging,’ said Julie Ann Haines, CML Cymru chair. ‘It was the best first quarter performance for all lending types in Wales since 2007 and suggests a growth period for the market. With affordability improving this quarter, supported by a generally favourable economic backdrop, we would expect further growth in lending as we go into the summer months,’ she added. The CML report points out that while seasonal factors generally cause activity to be lower this period, this is the highest number of loans and the most borrowed for house purchase in the first quarter of the year since 2007. This was also the case for first time buyer, home mover and remortgage activity. Affordability metrics for first time buyers improved in the first quarter of 2016 compared to the fourth quarter of 2015. The amount borrowed went from £106,000 to £104,625 and the average household income of a first-time buyers went from 32,615 to 33,092 meaning income multiple in Wales from 3.30 to 3.22. The amount home movers borrowed went from £128,795 to £130,000 and the average household income of a home movers went from 46,818 to 47,500 meaning income multiple in Wales from 2.83 to 2.85. The amount first time buyers are spending of their monthly gross income to service capital and interest repayments was 17.2%, which was the lowest level since the CML began tracking this metric in 2005. Home movers are also paying close to record low proportions of income at 16.9%, unchanged from the fourth quarter 2015 and just off the lowest since we began tracking this metric in 2005 of 16.8% in the third quarter of 2013. Continue reading
Monaco has the second most expensive ultra prime property in the world
Ahead of the Formula One annual Grand Prix in Monaco new research shows that the price of ultra prime property per square metre is the second most expensive in the world with only Hong Kong more costly. Last year was a strong one for Monaco with a total of €2.25 billion sales with new builds making up just 7% of total sales but 20% of total sales value. The data from Savills World Research also shows that prime two bedroom apartments on the Grand Prix track are nearly nine times the cost of comparable properties on the Singapore race track and if the track was measured as dwelling floor space, it would be worth €3 billion The report points out that Monaco is a small market and average prices are prone to fluctuation depending on the sample of properties sold in any one year. In 2015 the average resale price in Monaco stood at €3.5 milion, down 4.8% on the previous year, while the median price at €2.1 million was up 5%. The long term median price trend shows consistent growth, averaging 5.8% per annum since 2010. ‘Monaco continues to be an exceptionally attractive location for the global wealthy and has all the key ingredients for real estate price growth’ the report says. ‘A very strong local economy employs more people than can be physically accommodated within the Principality. High demand for both residential and commercial space meets with slow supply in an extremely land limited area,’ it explains. This means that Monaco remains one of the most expensive destinations for ultra prime property in the world only Hong Kong tops it at €109,800 per square meter compared to Monaco’s €90,900 per square meter. The report points out that while Monaco’s residential property market may be very valuable it is also very small. Transaction numbers topped only 547 in 2015, but even then this represented less than 4% of private housing stock numbers in Monaco. On average, since 2006, less than 3% of private stock has traded each year. This means the average Monegasque property changes hands only once every 37 years compared to prime London where properties trade nearer once every 20 years. In the re-sale market, which accounted for 93% of deals, 509 sales were recorded. This was 8% down on 2014 volumes but still 11% above 2007 levels. The very upper tiers of the market are the most liquid and total euro volumes stand 67% above their 2008 peak. Land constrains means that Monaco is taking innovative approaches to urban development. Project Portier, a reclamations project agreed in 2015 and scheduled to complete by 2025, will add a further six hectares of land. ‘Monaco is expanding and rebuilding to remain relevant to modern-day occupier demands. The Principality’s dual status as business destination and recreation centre, coupled with safe haven credentials, will continue to underpin its appeal,’ said Paul Tostevin, associate director, Savills World… Continue reading
