TSI
Vote on UK in the EU unlikely to have much impact on rental market
On the eve of the historic referendum in the UK on the future of the country in the European Union research shows that letting agents do not anticipate a major shift in the rental market. Whatever the outcome of the vote, lettings agents do not believe supply, demand, or rental costs will be significantly affected, according to the latest sector report from the Association of Residential Letting Agents (ARLA). Some 65% of ARLA agents expect supply to stay the same if the UK votes to leave the EU, compared to just a fifth 22% who predict it will fall as international landlords pull out of the market. The research also found that 31% see demand decreasing, as relocating to the UK becomes a less attractive prospect, but over half, 55%, think it will remain as high as it currently is. In London, however, almost half, 43%, of agents expect the number of prospective tenants per property to fall in the event of a ‘Brexit’, as international demand weakens. While 19% of agents expect a Brexit result will cause upward pressure on rent costs, the majority don’t imagine a massive change for tenants’ rents, should Britain leave the EU. ‘There is no avoiding the EU Referendum at the moment; and whatever the outcome, we are likely to feel the impact of the fallout of this debate in different ways,’ said David Cox, managing director of ARLA. ‘However, it’s important to put this into perspective and not get carried away in a zeitgeist. As outlined in our recent Brexit Report, the lettings market hosts a large number of non-UK born citizens and any change in migration policy is likely to have an impact down the line, especially in London. However, our monthly report clearly shows the sentiment amongst members is that the immediacy of this effect is likely to be minimal,’ he pointed out. The monthly report also looked at the issue of stamp duty reforms. Two months since the extra 3% was added to buy to let and second homes some 37% of agents reported a fall in supply of buy to let properties. This figures was much higher in Wales, where 80% of agents saw a dip in supply in May, as well as East Midlands and Yorkshire where 50% of ARLA agents have seen a decline. Looking forward, nearly half, 48%, of agents expect supply will continue to fall as more landlords walk away from the market as a result of the mortgage interest relief changes coming into force next year. The research shows that month on month supply is consistently lower than in 2015. The number of properties managed per branch dropped in May, with agents recording an average 171 properties on their books. Demand also fell marginally last month, as agents registered 33 prospective tenants per branch, compared to 34 in April. ‘The EU… Continue reading
Asking prices up in England and Wales but down in London
Asking prices in England and Wales have reached a record high despite the looming vote on the future of the UK in the European Union, the latest index report shows. Housing market momentum continues to push up the price of property coming on to the market up with a rise of 0.8% or £2,320 to new high of £310,471, according to the June report from property portal Rightmove. Desire to buy and lack of supply is affecting the market with the time to sell falling to 57 days, the fastest ever measured by Rightmove. But there is some signs of referendum associated uncertainty with fewer new sellers coming to market as new properties for sale were down 5.3% compared to average at this time of year with the most reluctant being owners of larger homes with four or more bedrooms who have dropped by 6.6%. A breakdown of the figures show that in the North East asking prices increased by 0.1% month on month and 3.1% year on year to an average of £148,662 while in the North West they were up 2.2% month on month and 4.2% year on year to £183,482. In the West Midlands there was a month on month rise of 1.4% and year on year asking prices were up 4% to an average of £209,273 and in the East Midlands up 0.6% and 4.8% respectively to £198,090. There was a month on month rise of 0.6% in Yorkshire and Humber and year on year asking prices are up 2.6% to an average of £178,388 while in the East of England they were up 1.2% and are now 9.4% above a year ago at £338,499. In the South West there was a 1.4% month on month rise and year on year an increase of 5% to an average of £302,022. In the South East asking prices rose 0.7% month on month and are 6.9% higher year on year. In Greater London price growth is slowing with a month on month fall of 0.2% and asking prices are now 4.8% higher than a year ago at £643,117. Meanwhile growth has been steady in Wales, up 1.4% month on month and 6% year on year to £185,145. Overall, there have been price rises every month so far in 2016, showing that the uncertainty associated with the EU referendum has failed to halt this year’s upwards price momentum, according to Miles Shipside, Rightmove director and housing market analyst. He pointed out that this is in contrast to the run-up to the May 2015 general election, when the electoral uncertainty resulted in a price fall of 0.1% in the month of the election. ‘This year the first quarter buy to let surge has exacerbated the shortage of suitable property for sale, and with ongoing buyer demand fuelled by cheap mortgage money, there appears to be greater resilience. The result is that the average time it takes to sell a property is at its lowest level… Continue reading
Residential property market in Dubai looking stable, says latest report
The residential real estate market in Dubai maintained its stability in the year to April 2016, despite prices falling, according to the latest analysis report on the emirate. Despite a 9% year on year drop across the mainstream market, the General REIDIN sale price index remained relatively flat on a monthly basis, with no noticeable changes in the performance of both apartments and villas, says the report. Dubai’s prime market continued to outperform the market average with the prime price index down 5% in the 12 months to April 2016 compared to the previous 12 month period, the report from international real estate firm Knight Frank. It says that it is encouraging that prices in the prime segment increased 2% on a quarterly basis between the fourth quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016. The performance of prime apartments outweighed that of villas, with the index pointing to a 2% quarterly increase over the same period. In turn, prime villas recorded no significant price change. The Knight Frank report also says that a number of factors have supported this regulation in prices and are set to support the return of confidence to the market including the government commitment to infrastructure spending. It points out that while it is too soon to estimate the impact of the Expo 2020 on the residential sector, continued government spending on infrastructure projects geared towards the event such as Route Metro 2020 and Dubai Parks & Resorts will promote confidence in the market and is expected to draw further inward capital. There is also likely to be some control of supply as there is a general consensus among developers of the need to phase out residential projects in line with demand and strong liquidity with the residential real estate market in Dubai continuing to attract capital from strong liquid markets such as Saudi Arabia and India, two of the traditionally top buyers of real estate in Dubai. In Abu Dhabi, sale prices remained relatively stable on the back of a shortage in quality residential supply with the General REIDIN sale price index recording a 1% increase year on year in the first quarter of 2016. The report says that while demand has declined on the back of corporate restructuring and cutbacks in government spending, this has been balanced by a slowdown in the delivery of projects, thus keeping the market steady. ‘Looking ahead, the residential market in the UAE is expected to soften over the second half of the year. While it’s difficult to predict when the next growth cycle will be, we expect the residential market to level out by the end of 2016 before seeing gradual recovery in 2017. We expect prime residential properties will continue to outperform the market average in the short to medium term,’ the report says. ‘We expect Dubai to continue attracting investments both regionally and globally. However the outlook for the emirate in general and the real estate sector… Continue reading
