TSI
Pace of rental growth in UK slowing
Rents across the UK continued to rise during June, but the first half of 2016 has been characterised by a slowing in the pace of rental increases, the latest rental index shows. Rents agreed on new tenancies across the UK, excluding London, increased by 3.5% in the second quarter to £773 per month compared to a year ago and by 3.9% to £1,575 in London over the same period. However, this is down compared to the UK wide figure for May which was 4.4% and 6.2% for London, according to the data from the June HomeLet rental index. Rents continue to rise in almost every area of the country, with 10 out of the 12 regions surveyed seeing an increase over the three months to the end of May. The index report says that the more modest rental increases seen in June are a continuation of a trend that has developed throughout the first half of the year, with rents rising across much of the UK each month, but at a slower pace than was the case throughout most of 2015. Last June rents were rising at an annual rate of 7.8% and 10.1% in London. The data suggests the private rental sector has responded to the needs and concerns of landlords and tenants alike during the first half of the year. Landlords were hit by higher stamp duty charges on purchases of new property in April, which led to a rush to complete transactions before then and a spike in the supply of rental property thereafter. Meanwhile, tenant demand for property has remained strong, particularly given rising house prices and squeezed mortgage availability, and projected growth in the UK’s population suggests this will continue, the report points out. It explains that official projections suggesting this growth will come from both the British born population and net migration. Nevertheless, the slowing in the pace of rental increases may reflect landlords’ recognition that an affordability ceiling is approaching. The outlook for the sector will depend in part on the fall-out from the UK’s decision to leave the European Union in June’s referendum. Some economists expect the referendum result to act as a brake on construction in the housing sector, which could exacerbate the current imbalance between demand and supply in the rental market. It is also possible that demand may increase as would be house buyers opt to wait and see how house prices are affected over the next 12 months and beyond. HomeLet’s data also suggests that the average length of a tenancy, as measured by how long tenants had occupied their previous rental property, has begun to come down over the past three months. The figures underline the important role that the private rental sector plays in providing a wide range of housing options to those who have not purchased a property. According to Martin Totty, chief executive… Continue reading
Property valuations increased in UK in June despite EU referendum
The pace of property valuations conducted in June 2016 in the UK increased both an annual basis and month on month, according to the latest research. The total number of valuations carried out in June rose by 4% compared to June 2015, and 24% compared to the previous month, the report covering the month of the European Union referendum from Connells Survey and Valuation shows. John Bagshaw, corporate services director of Connells Survey & Valuation, pointed out that the background to the figures is one of uncertainty and shock in the days after the UK decided to leave the EU, yet the property landscape appears surprisingly stable which he believes is encouraging. ‘Initial solidity from the post-Brexit housing market may not be enough to answer all the new legal and financial questions in light of the vote or to offset a likely blow to confidence on the near horizon. But this should bring such fears into perspective. Life will go on and the property market will continue to function,’ he said. Leading the June housing market, activity from first time buyers accelerated last month, making up for a considerable slowdown in buy to let valuations. Numbers taking their first step onto the property ladder rose 23% year on year, whereas buy to let valuations decreased by 40% over the same period. This is on the back of 27% month on month growth for first-time buyer valuations, ahead of the general seasonal pick-up in total activity while buy to let valuations increased by 17% since May, considerably slower than the overall picture. ‘First time buyers continue to drive activity in the housing market, an emerging trend since the start of the year and now reaching a new peak. Government schemes such as Help to Buy continue to be significant. But now a slowdown in the buy to let sector may be adding an extra short term boost for new buyers, as competition from landlords diminishes a little, easing the hunt for a home for sale,’ Bagshaw explained. Remortgaging has also seen a significant boost in valuation activity in June. The number of valuations carried out in June for those looking to remortgage rose by 18% on a 12 month basis and 19% month on month. Home movers were more cautious. Valuations for existing home-owners looking to move to a new property decreased by 7% on an annual basis since June 2015. However the number of such home owner valuations rose by 29% since May. ‘Home movers have once again had a stable month, and this section of the market has enjoyed the strongest seasonal acceleration from May. Meanwhile, remortgaging is the other major winner from a time of consistently low mortgage rates and a possibility of even lower borrowing costs over the summer,’ Bagshaw pointed out. ‘As seen in recent months many people are taking… Continue reading
Rental growth in prime central London down 3% in year to June 2106
Annual rental value growth in London’s prime property market fell by 3% in June, continuing a decline experienced in recent months that has been driven by higher stock levels and uncertainty in financial markets. The index report from real estate firm Knight Frank relates to before the UK’s decision to leave the European Union, but Tom Bill, head of London residential research said that the current sense of uncertainty following the vote is likely to boost rental demand in the short term. ‘However, any upwards pressure on rents is likely to be countered to some extent by rising stock levels, which will tick up in line with the ongoing uncertainty in the sales market and there is early anecdotal evidence that some vendors are deciding to let their property until more clarity emerges,’ he explained. Bill pointed out that underlying demand remains strong and the number of new prospective tenants that registered in June was the highest it has been since September 2015 and the number of viewings was the third highest on record. Meanwhile, the number of new tenancies agreed in June 2016 was almost identical to the same month in the previous two years. ‘For investors able to see through the current political bout of political uncertainty, there are also grounds for longer term positivity,’ Bill added. The prime gross yield in June was 3.1%, which is markedly in excess of the current record-low yield on a 10 year government bond of about 0.8%, or the so-called risk-free rate and Bill pointed out that a mood of indecision in financial markets is also more accentuated than it was before the Brexit vote, which will also cause some tenants, particularly in financial services, to rent for longer. ‘More broadly, uncertainty over the result of the referendum has been replaced by uncertainty over the more nuanced question of the UK’s relationship with Europe and demand will strengthen further as clarity emerges surrounding key negotiating positions,’ Bill said. He also pointed out that as the Brexit negotiation process unfolds, it should be remembered that no candidate for Prime Minister has indicated any willingness to relinquish London’s role as Europe’s leading financial centre. Indeed, Chancellor George Osborne has signalled he may cut corporation tax in a sign that London will strive to remain competitive versus other European cities, both as the key financial and tech market in the continent. The prospect of an interest rate cut in the UK is also likely to stimulate a degree of activity and the likelihood of further cuts by central banks in other countries, particularly in Asia, will cause global investors to seek the type of higher returns on offer in property, according to Bill. ‘This search for yield will be allied to a favourable currency play due to the current weakness of Sterling. Meanwhile, other fundamentals that remain unchanged after the referendum include the supply shortfall and projected population growth over the next decade in London, factors that will… Continue reading
