TSI
UK housing market sees marked drop in activity, particularly in the south
Uncertainty fuelled by the European Union referendum has resulted in a marked drop in activity in the UK housing market with new buyer enquiries down significantly across the country. In June some 36% more chartered surveyors nationally reporting a fall in interest, the lowest reading since the middle of 2008, according to the latest month residential market survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). The South of the UK has been the hardest hit, with anecdotal evidence suggesting both the EU result and the tax changes, which took effect at the beginning of April, as having an impact on sentiment. There was a further fall in the supply of properties coming available for sale across the UK in June, with the exception of Northern Ireland. This highlights the continuing challenge presented to the market by the lack of stock, according to Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist. The report also shows that 45% more chartered surveyors saw a fall in new instructions in June from a net balance of -31% in May, the steepest fall on record and extends a trend that has been in place since 2014. The market has also seen further decline in sales this month with a third successive monthly drop in activity. Contributors expect this trend to continue with 26% more respondents anticipating a further drop in sales across the UK over the next three months. This is the most negative reading for near term expectations since 1998. House price growth saw a reduction in June and although prices are still rising, they are doing so at a more moderate pace with 16% more respondents reported having seen prices rise rather than fall across the UK. London remains the only region where respondents are seeing prices fall with a -46% net balance but this is largely being concentrated in the central zones. ‘That said, near term price expectations are now in negative territory across the whole of the UK with 27% more respondents across the UK expecting to see prices fall rather than rise over the next three months,’ Rubinsohn pointed out. He also pointed out that looking further ahead over the next 12 months, sales expectations have turned negative for the first time in four years with 12% more contributors expecting transactions to fall rather than rise. Significantly, over the next 12 months the dip in prices is only expected to persist in London and East Anglia with net balances of -39% and -34% respectively, and longer term, prices are still expected to rise, albeit a little less than previously anticipated, with a cumulative increase of 14% projected for the next five years. Rent expectations over the same time horizon remain more resilient and are still broadly consistent with an increase of just over 20%, the report also shows. ‘Big events such as elections typically do unsettle markets so it is no surprise that the EU referendum has been associated with a downturn in activity. However, even without… Continue reading
UK needs to build 300,000 homes a year to meet current housing shortfall
The UK Government must lift its home building target by 50% and build 300,000 new homes each year to tackle the current housing crisis, according to a report from the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee. The report suggests that local authorities and housing associations must be freed to build substantial numbers of homes for rent and for sale and points out that the current targets will fail to meet the demand for new homes or moderate the rate of house price increases. It also says that current policy is restricting local authorities' access to funding to build more social housing and creating uncertainty in the already dysfunctional housing market by frequent changes to tax rules and subsidies for house purchases, reductions in social rents, and the extension of the Right to Buy. All of these changes reduce the supply of homes for those who need low cost rental accommodation and a narrow focus on home ownership neglects those who rent their home, the report adds. The Committee makes wide-ranging recommendations to address the housing crisis, including charging council tax on development that is not completed quickly and not relying solely on private developers to meet the target which the report describes as misguided. Indeed, it points out that the private sector house building market is ‘oligopolistic’ with the eight largest builders building 50% of new homes and their business model is to restrict the volume of house building to maximise their profit margin. To address this the Committee recommends that local authorities are granted the power to levy council tax on developments that are not completed within a set time period. It also suggests that the Government must take decisive steps to build on the very substantial holdings of surplus publicly owned land and that a senior Cabinet minister should be given overall responsibility for identifying and coordinating the release of public land for housing, with a particular focus on providing low cost homes while the National Infrastructure Commission should oversee this process. It also wants local authorities to be given the power to increase planning fees. Local authorities should be able to set and vary planning fees to help fund a more efficient planning system and the upper cap on these charges should be much higher than the current limit. ‘We are facing an acute housing crisis with home ownership, and increasingly renting, being simply unaffordable for a great many people. The only way to address this is to increase supply. The country needs to build 300,000 homes a year for the foreseeable future,’ said Lord Hollick, Chairman of the Committee. ‘The private sector alone cannot deliver that. It has neither the ability nor motivation to do so. We need local government and housing associations to get back into the business of building,’ he pointed out. ‘Local authorities are keen to meet this challenge but they do not have the funds or the ability to borrow to embark on a… Continue reading
US housing market growth expected to be steady in 2016
Housing market growth in the United States is holding steady with a rise of 0.6% quarter on quarter, according to the latest real estate analysis report. The annual spring housing boom has been beneficial to most regions across the nation, with most markets outside of the Northeast seeing a small bump in quarter on quarter growth in the last month. The data from real estate firm Clear Capital also shows that in the West quarterly growth has increased by 0.2% to 1.3%, while quarterly growth in the South and Midwest have increased to a modest 0.8% and 0.3% respectively. However, growth figures in the Northeast are concerning with the firm’s models showing an average of zero price growth in the region over the last quarter. ‘This is especially alarming when considering that the spring season is a time when markets typically gain momentum leading into the busy summer season,’ said Alex Villacorta, vice president of research and analytics at Clear Capital. He pointed out that while prices in the region as a whole have appeared to stagnate, there are markets in the region that are performing positively, such as New York and Hartford, where prices have increased by 0.5% and 0.7% respectively over the last quarter. The regional year end forecasts may also be a cause for concern, with the West and North-eastern regions projected to fall potentially into negative territory over the next six months. The analysis predicts that by the end of 2016, the nation may see a new leader in terms of regional growth as the South and Midwest are predicted to have the highest price growth over the next six months, around the 0.5% mark. ‘While these six month growth rates are lower than what we have seen in recent years, slower growth does not necessarily spell disaster and instead could be indicative of markets that are finally beginning to moderate and even stabilize in these regions,’ Villacorta explained. On the MSA level, southern cities are dominating the top spots in our forecast, with six of the top 10 markets located within the region. Home prices in Dallas and Nashville are predicted to see growth throughout the remainder of 2016, increasing to the tune of 3% to 4% by the end of the year. Major Florida markets are also predicted to continue to rise, with Jacksonville and Orlando growth forecasts around 2.5% by the end of 2016, while homes in Tampa may increase by almost 4% over the next six months. ‘Overall, our forecasting models are predicting the second half of 2016 to be much slower than its start, with all regions forecasted to see very little price change by the end of the year,’ said Villacorta. ‘The Federal Reserve won’t be raising interest rates this summer, and while this will help keep the cost of mortgage lending to a minimum, at least in the short term, there are other key global factors that could spell… Continue reading
