TSI
UK only key country in EU likely to see property prices fall in next 18 months
House prices will rise in nearly all European markets this year on the back of historically low lending rates but in the UK prices will fall over the next 18 months due to the decision to leave the European Union, says a new analysis report. The German housing market is set to see the strongest growth due to high demand and tight supply of homes for sale but Italy is likely to see prices remain static due to a poor economic outlook, according to the report from S&P Global Ratings. ‘While uncertainties caused by the UK's June 23 referendum decision to leave the EU could dent eurozone growth and, by extension, the housing market recovery over the next few years, we don't expect that it will derail it,’ said Jean-Michel Six, chief economist for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa at S&P Global Ratings. The report forecasts that eurozone real GDP will expand 1.7% this year, and it expects that the European Central Bank's (ECB's) accommodative monetary stance, leading to historically low sovereign bond yields and mortgage interest rates, will spur improvements in Europe's housing markets. The UK is the only housing market for which house price declines are forecast as a result of the Brexit vote, although it points out that strong market gains in the first half of this year should keep full year house price rises at 5%, with the market only likely declining in 2017 by 2%. Although Ireland's economy has tight economic ties with the UK its housing market will continue its robust recovery, with prices growing by 6% this year, aided by the ongoing improvement in the labour market and a housing supply shortage. The forecast says that the Netherlands, also exposed to the UK economy, should also continue to see nominal prices rise by 5% this year on the back of economic improvements and favourable policy measures. Even the French housing market, which has been falling in recent years, is showing some resilience and looks set to grow by 2% in 2016 and in 2017 against a backdrop of low lending rates and modest economic growth. The strongest residential housing market gains this year will be in Germany, where robust economic fundamentals, a shortage of housing that is being further squeezed by the surge of migrants, and historically low lending rates should lead to prices inflating by 7% on last year. Spain and Belgium will each see house price rises of 4% this year. In Spain, economic growth, declining unemployment, and interest from foreign buyers should underpin a continued recovery of house prices the report says. In Belgium, forthcoming changes to fiscal rules and very favourable loan rates are still underpinning demand this year. While economic recovery and price incentives are also continuing to lift house prices in Portugal, a large stock of nonperforming domestic loans is… Continue reading
Call for administration of UK leasehold property sales to be streamlined
The Conveyancing Association (CA), the leading trade body for the conveyancing industry in the UK, has outlined a number of recommendations to end what it believes to be significant delays and overcharging taking place within the leasehold sector. A growing number of leasehold sales are taking place each year across all UK regions, up from 220,000 in 2011 to 260,000 in 2015, with 57% in Greater London and 40% in the North West. As a result the CA wants to see a streamlined process taking out the unnecessary delays and a cut to what it describes as ‘unwarranted’ fees charged by many lease administrators who administer the terms of the lease to the leaseholder. In a recent survey of conveyancers some 56% of CA member firms said they believe that in 30% of transactions lease administrators charge unreasonable fees, and a further 32% said in 16% to 30% of sales they charge unreasonable fees. On top of this, 62% of estate agents, the traditional buffer between the consumer and the process, say that the provision of leasehold sale information causes real issues in the house moving process, with 34% branding it ‘an absolute nightmare’. Common problems within the process include identifying the lease administrator as there is no registration or regulation required and significant delays can be incurred attempting to find the right person or company. There is also a recognised imbalance of bargaining power between the lease administrator and the leaseholder as there is currently no requirement for the publication of costs or any control over their extent in relation to receipt of service of notice, deed of covenant, share transfer or certificate of compliance. When it comes to overcharging on the part of the lease administrators the CA has seen cases where costs levied are up to nine times more than what the conveyancing industry might expect them to charge for carrying out such work. On average Lease Administrators are charging between £250 per hour and £360 per hour for administrative work, far in excess of what conveyancers and customers might expect those charges to be. The CA also points out that there is also often a duplication of costs with leaseholders required to pay multiple parties to complete their LPE1 (Leasehold Property Enquiry) form and no redress system is currently available to existing or incoming leaseholders with no effective consumer rights and no recourse to the Ombudsman given its lack of jurisdiction over costs unless the complaint is in respect of a breach of agreement for those costs. It points out that there can be significant delays in the provision of the LPE1 information and dealing with other requirements post-sale necessary for the registration and protection of the leaseholder’s title. This causes significant distress to a chain of house movers and can cause sales to fall through. To reduce the impact of these issues the CA suggests that delays in the… Continue reading
Demand for retirement homes in UK slows
The uptake of retirement housing in the UK softened in the second quarter of this year as many downsizers paused plans ahead of the European Union referendum vote, according to the latest quarterly review. Overall new buyer registrations for retirement properties slipped by over 20% from the first quarter to 4,744, a 30% fall on the same period last year, as uncertainty before the referendum slowed the market. However, the data from retirement property specialist Retirement Homesearch, also shows that the number of property viewings at 2,974 and instructions at 513 remained steady on first quarter numbers, showing that registered buyers are still actively looking to downsize. ‘Uncertainty around the referendum may have caused many downsizers to sit on their hands until after 24 June, but the outcome could mean a further delay in decisions, as markets fluctuate and affect pensions, which will have a knock-on effect on Britons’ retirement plans,’ said Nick Freeth, managing director of Retirement Homesearch. ‘However, with six million older Britons now living in houses with two or more excess bedrooms, downsizing could help retirees free up capital, reduce the cost of running large properties and move to homes better suited to their needs,’ he added. A recent report on the state of the UK’s housing, published by the International Longevity Centre (ILC-UK) and supported by Retirement Homesearch parent company, FirstPort, shows that under occupancy amongst the older generation is now a widespread issue with six million people living in houses with two or more excess bedrooms. Since 2005 there has been a significant increase in the number of 65 to 74 year olds living alone to 300,000. ‘As experts in retirement housing, we know that having access to specialist advice is especially important in the post-Brexit landscape where it is essential to minimise uncertainty. By ensuring downsizers get the guidance they need, they can begin to look forward to a new home, as well as a new lifestyle,’ Freeth concluded. Continue reading
