TSI
High end home prices keep rising in mainland China despite cooling measures
Luxury home prices in major mainland cities in China continued to rise in the second quarter of 2016 despite government cooling measures, according to the latest real estate market report. In Shanghai, where non-residents are restricted from buying homes, sales decreased 20% quarter on quarter but as a key safe haven asset class, luxury homes were still sought after, says the report from international real estate firm Knight Frank. In Beijing some 257 new luxury homes were sold, up 38% quarter on quarter, driven by booming supply and demand in the traditional peak season. In Guangzhou, where market recovery became slower, sales fell over 20% and inventory level fell 11.7% due to a lack of new supply. The report says that the Hong Kong market remained polarised, with super luxury homes popular with billionaires, but other homes recording price drops because of an anticipated increase in supply and a potential interest rate rise. In Taipei, the new administration did not emphasize curbing measures, which encouraged developers to launch new projects. Enquiry levels for luxury homes surged, but buyers were deterred by the high property tax, which dragged down sales to only 30% of the volume a year ago. Overall prices and rents remained stable amid the low interest rate environment. ‘In the short term, curbing measures are expected to remain in first tier mainland cities but luxury home prices are set to rise, propelled by high premiums in recent residential land sales,’ the report explains. It predicts that luxury home prices could fall 5% to 10% in Hong Kong and stay steady in Taipei for the rest of the year. Meanwhile, in the commercial sector mainland Grade-A office markets remained active. In Shanghai, rents rose and the vacancy rate fell, driven by strong demand, with core business districts seeing satisfactory leasing performance. In Beijing, rents continued to climb, although the vacancy rate edged up slightly with six new projects completed. Guangzhou was relatively quiet, with minor increases in both rents and prices. The sales market saw transaction volume drop over 40% quarter on quarter and in Hong Kong, leasing activity was slow on Hong Kong Island due to the low availability of space and weaker demand from the mainland, while Kowloon East remained active, boosted by strong relocation demand from tenants on Hong Kong Island. In Taipei, the letting market performed well with a good absorption rate, most notably in Xinyi District. Overall rents and prices remained steady. Looking ahead, a huge amount of new supply is likely to impose upward pressure on vacancy rates in Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and Taipei, the report suggests. But it explains that the shift from Business Tax to Value-added Tax on the mainland is likely to reduce the tax burden and benefit the absorption of office space. Continue reading
Demand continues to fall in prime central London property market
Although the wider UK property market is yet to suffer any detrimental impact from Brexit, London’s prime market is seeing demand continue to fall, the latest index suggests. In the £1 million plus sector in London demand has fallen by 10%, the lowest level on record and a further drop since demand cooled following April’s changes to stamp duty for buy to let and second homes purchases. The data from the prime central London property index from hybrid estate agent eMoov shows that the five areas where demand is at its lowest are Mayfair at 3%, St Johns Wood, Knightsbridge and Belgravia all at 4% and Fitzrovia at 5%. The index, which records the change in supply and demand for property above £1 million by monitoring the total number of properties sold in comparison to those on sale, shows that some 75% of London’s most prestigious locations have seen demand remain static or drop since the second quarter of the year. Indeed, the only places to have seen a positive uplift in demand for property over the last three months are Holland Park at 44%, Marylebone at 38%, Notting Hill at 17% and Primrose Hill at 9%. Notting Hill is also fourth hottest where demand levels are concerned, currently at 14%. With Belsize Park enjoying the highest demand across the prime central London sector at 18%, followed by Islington at 17%, Chiswick at 15% and Holland Park at 13%. According to Russell Quirk, eMoov chief executive officer this slowdown was always likely to happen as these areas of London rely heavily on high end foreign investment and second home visitors to survive. ‘Whilst the rest of the UK market seems to be ticking along with little impact as of yet, the immediate weakening of the sterling and negative response from the rest of the EU seems to have had an instantaneous knock-on effect on the prime central London market,’ he said. Continue reading
