TSI
Currency fluctuations adding to slowdown in Dubai property market
Residential property prices in Dubai fell again during the second half of 2016 and the slowdown is projected to continue. Data from two sets of figures covering the second quarter show that the real estate market is slowing although sales are holding up. However, currency fluctuations are adversely affecting demand from foreign buyers. The data from CBRE shows that it was the sixth consecutive quarter of declines with the average sales rate down 2% quarter on quarter and 12% year on year, with the most significant fall recorded in the upper segment of the market. ‘Prices within the mid-market segment have proven to be far more resilient to this downward rate trend, reflecting the current demand for affordable accommodation in freehold communities,’ the report says. Although sales have held up relatively well, rental values in the mid-market segment of the market in areas like Al Barsha, Oud Metha and Bur Dubai have fallen, reflecting the higher availability of homes on the market. It suggests that the devaluation of major currencies, global economic uncertainty, redundancies and lower accommodation budgets mean that there is likely to be a further softening of demand levels and sales rates in the short term, especially for higher end and larger units. Indeed, the firm predicts that property sales rates are set to fall further by an additional 3% to 5% in the coming quarters although some locations may vary. ‘It is estimated that around 48,000 new residential units, apartments and villas, could enter the Dubai market during the period 2016 to 2018, provided that construction delays are at a minimal,’ said Mat Green, head of research and consulting UAE at CBRE Middle East. Meanwhile, the latest Phidar Advisory Dubai residential research note for the end of the second quarter of 2016 shows that residential prices dropped in the first half of the year and projects further declines. ‘Some claim this is a supply story, but supply has expanded slowly over the past thirty months. The current declines reflect soft demand,’ said Jesse Downs, managing director of Phidar Advisory. The Phidar house price index data shows that apartment lease rates declined 2.2%, while sale prices declined 3.7%, pushing gross yields up to 7.9%, a three month gain of 12 basis points while lease rates for villas decreased 3.6% and sale prices declined 1.1%, which pushed yields down to 4.7%, a loss of 12 basis point in the first half of the current quarter. ‘The compression of villa yields is unsustainable and should slowly reverse in the coming year. Sale prices and rent declines for both villas and apartments will likely continue for the next 12 months, possibly up to 18 months,’ added Downs. She also pointed out that as there are a high number of foreign buyers in Dubai currency fluctuations are affecting the real estate market. ‘The strong US dollar is one of the biggest barriers to a Dubai real estate recovery now. Unfortunately, a strong dollar also is usually associated… Continue reading
Strong fundamentals mean UK property market set to see 3% growth overall in 2016
Strong market fundamentals remain in the UK’s regional residential property markets despite recent political events, most notably the decision to leave the European Union. The latest analysis from real estate firm CBRE suggests that UK house prices are expected to grow by an average of 3% this year with current growth of 5.1% across the country regarded as encouraging. The report says that the Outer Metropolitan area saw the strongest performance in the second quarter of 2016 with prices up 12.4% in June. London followed closely with 9.9% growth, whilst the North was the weakest performing region with prices down 1% year on year. It explains that with a period of uncertainty ahead, the UK remains in a strong position with high employment, low borrowing costs and weaker sterling which will help boost exports and although buyer sentiment is likely to remain cautious prices will continue to grow. ‘Despite some short term turmoil following the referendum, the UK still has otherwise very stable economic foundations. While the recovery in 2013 was largely driven by consumer spending, there are now encouraging signs of growth becoming more broad based and coming from multiple sectors,’ said Jennet Siebrits, head of residential research at CBRE. ‘London and the UK are still robust investment regions with a strong and established legal structure, favourable time zone, world class education system, and a durable, settled, democratic political structure. Despite the outcome of the EU referendum, our current forecasts remain broadly unchanged and we expect UK house prices to grow by an average of 3% this year,’ she added. Overall the report says that London’s land market remains highly price sensitive and underpinned by cautious sentiment, but activity remains driven by the capital’s acute supply/demand imbalance. In the South East, the residential land market continued at a strong pace in the second quarter of the year, driven by a number of successful converted office schemes and Permitted Development Rights opportunities. It is the South West supply/demand imbalance remains a key driver of price and rental growth, whilst the private rented sector dominates city markets. But in the Midlands Birmingham city centre dominates, with a reliance on office to residential conversions for the delivery of much needed housing stock. There are further new entrants to the market and Birmingham remains one of the key target cities for institutional investment, it adds. The trend of the last two quarters continues in the North, with modest house price rises driven by an emphasis on lower value £180 to £190 per square foot areas benefitting from the government’s Help to Buy schemes. It also points out that in Scotland, the sub-£500,000 housing market is performing well, whilst LBTT rates continues to impact the upper end of the market. Meanwhile, Scotland’s land market has seen prices generally increase off the back of an acute lack of supply. This is particularly evident in the prime regions of Edinburgh and East Lothian, where values are now pushing £1.2 million per… Continue reading
Landlord campaigners should know soon if tax challenge can go ahead
The legal campaign to overturn the proposed UK Government’s decision to phase out the tax relief that residential landlords can currently claim on their mortgages will know next month if its challenge can be taken further. There will be a hearing around the end of the month to determine whether or not there will be a judicial review of the move to reduce the tax relief from 2017 to 2020 until it meets the basic tax rate. Landlords and organisations have warned it could put off new landlords coming into the private rent sector and also hit existing landlords who will have little choice but to pass on the extra cost to their tenants in the form of higher rents. Landlord campaigners Steve Bolton and Chris Cooper said that they also have a meeting with the new housing minister Gavin Barwell on 09 September when the issue will be discussed. ‘We will obviously be raising our serious concerns about the impact, making him aware of our legal challenge and doing the best job we can to help him become a supporter of our cause within Government,’ they said. It is not the only tax change landlords have faced recently. Earlier this year a new 3% extra stamp duty was levied on the purchase of additional properties which included buy to let investments. The Scottish Association of Landlords (SAL) and the Residential Landlords Association (RLA) have both warned that these tax changes threaten to increase costs, making it easier for irresponsible landlords to provide sub-standard housing to tenants and threaten housing supply for those who believe renting is the most suitable option for them. The Scottish Association of Landlords (SAL), along with the Residential Landlords Association (RLA) south of the border, have launched a joint campaign to convince the new Chancellor of the Exchequer to reverse or amend tax changes in his Autumn Statement expected later this the year. They pointed out that a recent YouGov survey for the Council of Mortgage Lenders suggested that 34% of landlords will reduce their investment in the private rented sector as a consequence of these tax changes. Alongside this, the Scottish Government has introduced a 3% levy on the Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) for those buying additional properties, including properties to rent out. ‘We know from our regular branch meetings around Scotland that landlords are already seeing increased costs as a result of tax changes. As well as impacting on individual landlords, we are concerned this could make it harder to tackle the current housing crisis by making it more difficult to attract much needed investment,’ said John Blackwood, SAL chief executive. ‘With the uncertain investment environment that has been created by the Brexit vote, at least in the short term, the last thing anyone in the housing sector needs is tax rises which will only make things worse,’ he explained. ‘Furthermore,… Continue reading
