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Almost half of home owners in London putting selling plans on hold due to EU vote
Almost half of home owners in London intend to put any plans they have to buy or sell on hold under after the referendum in June on the future of the UK in the European Union. A survey has found that 47% will not get involved until after the vote and Bishop’s move, which commissioned the poll, believes that uncertainty over the outcome of the EU referendum is likely to slow London’s housing market in the coming months. In the poll 20% of Londoners said whether the UK stays or leaves the EU would not play any part in their decision to put their house on the market, and a further 32% said they weren’t sure. But 30% of home owners in London also believe that leaving the EU would actually strengthen the value of their home compared to 13% who believe that leaving the EU will not have an impact at all on the value of their home. Just13% in the neighbouring South East region said that an ‘out’ vote would add value to their property. The survey also discovered a significant proportion of younger generations would prefer to wait for the outcome of the EU vote. Some 46% of those aged 16 to 24 and 43% of those aged 24 to 35 said they intend to wait for the outcome of the vote compared to 16% of those aged between 45 to 54 and just 9% of those aged 55 and above. With almost half of London home owners willing to wait until after the EU referendum, in contrast just 11% in the East of England, 14% in the North East, and 15% in Yorkshire and the Humber claimed that they would prefer to wait until after the EU referendum to sell their property. ‘This paints a picture of the both the attitude towards the EU referendum amongst London homeowners and also their approach towards the price of property in the capital. It’s actually a very similar situation we found in Scotland during its 2014 independence referendum,’ said Chris Marshall, sales and marketing director at Bishop’s Move. ‘Significant policy decisions can severely impact the UK housing market and our own research last year also found almost a quarter of those looking to buy and sell a property delayed their move by one to four months in order to wait for the outcome of the General Election,’ he pointed out. ‘However, whilst these results point to a slowdown in the build-up to June, we fully anticipate business to resume as usual, particularly when the school holidays arrive and everyone wants to get their moves completed during the break,’ he added. Continue reading
UK house prices dipped in February but longer trend is still upward
House prices in the UK in the three months to February were 3% higher than in the previous three months whilst the annual rate remained unchanged at 9.7%, the latest index shows. But month on month prices fell by 1.4%, according to the data from the Halifax, taking the average price of a home to £209,495. Martin Ellis, Halifax housing economist pointed out that overall prices continue to rise at a robust pace driven by a significant imbalance between supply and demand. ‘Whilst this position is likely to continue over the coming months, there are some tentative signs that the supply situation may be beginning to improve,’ he explained. He also pointed out that instructions for second hand properties coming up for sale have increased in the past two months and the level of house building increased significantly in 2015. ‘Further ahead, increasing affordability issues, as house price increases continue to exceed wage growth, are likely to curb housing demand and cause price growth to ease,’ he added. An analysis of the Halifax figures shows that the quarterly rate of change was the highest since June 2015 when it was 3.3% and the annual rate remains within the 8% to 10% range where it has been for nearly the entire period since the start of 2015. The fall in values in February offset much of January’s 1.7% rise but Ellis explained that monthly house price changes can be volatile and the quarter on quarter change is a more reliable indicator of the underlying trend. The increase in average house prices has exceeded total average employee’s net earnings in 28% of local authority districts across the UK, some 108 out of 380, over the past two years, according to recent Halifax research. According to Russell Quirk, chief executive officer of eMoov, the monthly figures could be seen as a sign that the UK market is cooling but the longer term trend is still upward. ‘Demand is always an influential factor where an increase in house prices is concerned, so the impending stamp duty changes due in April have no doubt helped to keep the UK market buoyant,’ he said. ‘There has been a flurry of buyers keen to secure that second home or buy to let investment before the April deadline, as well as an increase in the stock available, due to savvy buyers looking to cash in and obtain a higher price than usual during this period of high demand,’ he pointed out. ‘We expect once the stamp duty dust has settled the market will cool slightly, but whilst UK and foreign buyers are still fuelling this increase, the issue of affordability will continue to take a back seat, rather than helping to restrain a continually inflating market,’ he added. Continue reading
UK farmland market sees east/west divide open up
An east/west divide in value growth for farmland in the UK has opened up in what has been a mixed year for sector, according to a new analysis report. Indeed, 2015 was a year of change across the farmland markets as, for the first time in a decade, price falls in arable land values were recorded in the eastern counties of England, the Savills Farmland Value Survey shows. Grassland values, generally in the west, which have lagged behind arable values, have continued to increase and this has created an east/west divide and also mirrors the contrasting supply dynamics, as noted on Supply and Demand 2015, which has also been a contributory factor to supporting values in the west. Farmers made up 50% of farmland sellers last year, the highest proportion in seven years as low commodity prices and the short term outlook for UK agriculture prompted some to capitalise on high average land values and retire. The report points out that farmers made up the smallest proportion of buyers since 2003 at 43% of all transactions. Meanwhile, non-farmers including lifestyle buyers, investors and institutional/corporate buyers represented the biggest percentage of purchasers in the past 12 years. Expansion of an existing holding was the principal motivation to buy, representing the predominant reason in more than half of all transactions, with three quarters of those farmers who took on more land citing expansion as the reason to buy. Just short of 176,500 acres of farmland were publicly marketed across Great Britain in 2015, an increase of 24%, or an additional 34,000 acres compared with 2014. Across England, market activity increased by 16% to around 120,000 acres with a clear divide between the eastern and western regions. Increased supply was recorded in the eastern regions, most notably in the East Midlands. In contrast, reduced supply was recorded down the western side of England. In Scotland market activity increased 47% in 2015, which may be the result of a combination of factors including pressure on farm incomes and some pent-up activity following a year of uncertainty caused by the Scottish Referendum. ‘In the light of recent market evidence, the short to medium term expectations for commodity prices and therefore farm profitability, we have downgraded our forecasts for the next five years. We expect values to be much more varied than in the past five years,’ said Alex Lawson, director of National Farms and Estates at Savills.. ‘Exceptional prices may still be achieved if all the right factors come together, but conversely it is very likely that there will be more farms where potential sale prices fail to reach expectations or they fail to sell. We expect this market will last three to four years until commodity prices start to recover, following stronger global growth,’ he explained. Continue reading
