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London property market avoids usual seasonal lending dip
The usual seasonal dip in home lending in the first quarter of the year didn’t seem to happen in London as the latest data shows borrowing up quarter on quarter and year on year. The data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders shows that home buyers in London borrowed £7.1 billion in the first three months of 2016, up 6% quarter on quarter and 41% on a year ago. They took out 21,400 loans, down 2% on the previous quarter but up 20% compared to the first quarter 2015. First time buyers borrowed £2.9 billion, down 7% on the fourth quarter 2015 but up 19% on the first quarter last year. This equated 10,700 loans, down 10% quarter on quarter but up 3% year on year. Home movers borrowed £4.2 billion, up 18% quarter on quarter and 63% compared to a year ago. This equated to 10,600 loans, up 8% quarter on quarter and 43% compared to the first quarter of 2015. Remortgage activity totalled £4 billion, up 4% on the fourth quarter 2015 and 36% compared to a year ago. This came to 13,500 loans, up 2% quarter on quarter and 21% compared to a year ago. ‘The usual seasonal dip in lending in the first quarter of the year didn't seem to impact London as strongly as the UK overall, mainly due to a strong uptick in home mover activity. Remortgage lending also performed well resulting in the highest first quarter remortgage levels in the capital since 2009,’ said Paul Smee, director general of the CML. ‘The housing market in Greater London has some unique characteristics compared to the rest of the UK such as more first time buyers, but lower overall levels of home ownership,’ he pointed out. ‘Affordability and the supply of housing remain critical factors for the London market, and we will be pleased to work with the new mayor and his deputy on how to deliver appropriate strategy over his term of office,’ he added. The data also shows that quarter on quarter affordability metrics for first time buyers show that the amount borrowed increased to £248,047 compared to the UK average of £130,500, from £243,746, but this was offset by a rise in the total household income of borrowers to £62,508 compared to the UK average of £40,000, from £61,155 meaning the median income multiple remained virtually unchanged from 3.94 to 3.93. London home movers saw a similar trend to £338,500 to the UK average of £172,295, from £315,995 the previous quarter, and household income increased to £91,862 on average compared to £56,104 UK-wide, from £84,313 meaning the income multiple decreased slightly from 3.87 to 3.83. The proportion of monthly gross income home buyers are spending on capital and interest repayments was 19.0%, which was the lowest level since the CML began tracking this metric in 2005. The number of remortgage loans was the highest first quarter figure since 2009, and the highest value… Continue reading
Commercial property lending market in UK seeing renewed confidence
Confidence has returned to the commercial property lending market in the UK as new loan originations hit a post crisis high, new figures shows. Indeed, the value of outstanding loan books saw its first increase since 2008, according to the most comprehensive study of the UK’s commercial property lending market from De Montfort. The total amount of outstanding debt at the year end in 2015 was £168.4 billion, representing a 1.9% increase from £165.2 billion at the year-end in 2014, and the first increase recorded since 2008. Overall some £53.7 billion of loan originations were recorded during the whole of 2015, compared to £45.2 billion in 2014 and while new lending volumes rose, the proportionate increase moderated to 18.8% in 2014/2015, compared to a post-crisis record of 51.2% in 2013/2014. The report says that further evidence that the market has recovered can be seen in the decline of almost 50% in the value of distressed loans, that is those in default and in breach of financial covenant. At the year-end in 2015, the value of distressed loans reported to the research was £12.1 billion, compared to £23.2 billion a year earlier and £47.6 billion at the end of 2009. Loan to value (LTV) ratios on existing loans continue to fall, reflecting the rise in commercial property values and banks continuing to lend on similar terms to recent years. At the year-end in 2015, some 87.5% or £123.5 billion of outstanding debt had a LTV ratio of 70% or less, compared to 77% or £107 billion at the year-end in 2014 and 63% or £99 billion at year end in 2013. Outstanding debt with a LTV between 71% and 100% represented 7.5% or £10.6 billion of the market, and just 5% or 6.9 billion had a LTV greater than 101%. Notably, average lending LTVs fell during the course of 2015 for all sub-sectors, suggesting good lender discipline despite the strength of the market. Although they still dominate the market, UK banks and building societies saw their market share continue to decline. They represented 34% of new loan originations at year end in 2015, the lowest level ever recorded by the research, compared to 39% the previous year. The proportion of outstanding debt held on their books also fell, from 49% of the total at year end in 2014 to 45.5% in 2015. For the first time, insurance companies were the second largest category of new loan originators, representing 16% or £8.57 billion of the total in 2015. The exposures of insurance companies now account for 15.1% or £25.4 billion of the market, compared to 12.7% or £21 billion in 2014. Regional distribution of outstanding loans showed a strong bias in favour of central London; 43% of the total outstanding debt is secured against real estate in the capital city, the highest result ever recorded by the research, and a dramatic increase from the 26% recorded in 2010. This indicates… Continue reading
US home sales maintain recent momentum, up 6% from April 2015
Despite ongoing inventory shortages and faster price growth, existing home sales in the United States have sustained their recent momentum and moved higher for the second consecutive month. The latest data from the National Association of Realtors shows a surge in sales in the Midwest and a decent increase in the Northeast which offset smaller declines in the South and West. Total existing home sales, which are completed transactions that include single family homes, town homes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.45 million in April from an upwardly revised 5.36 million in March. After last month's gain, sales are now up 6% from April 2015. According to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, April's sales increase signals slowly building momentum for the housing market this spring. ‘Primarily driven by a convincing jump in the Midwest, where home prices are most affordable, sales activity overall was at a healthy pace last month as very low mortgage rates and modest seasonal inventory gains encouraged more households to search for and close on a home,’ he said. ‘Except for in the West, where supply shortages and stark price growth are hampering buyers the most, sales are meaningfully higher than a year ago in much of the country,’ he added. The NAR data also shows that the median existing home price for all housing types in April was $232,500, up 6.3% from April 2015 and this is the 50th consecutive month of year on year gains. Total housing inventory at the end of April increased 9.2% to 2.14 million existing homes available for sale, but is still 3.6% lower than a year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 4.7 month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.4 months in March. ‘The temporary relief from mortgage rates currently near three-year lows has helped preserve housing affordability this spring, but there's growing concern a number of buyers will be unable to find homes at affordable prices if wages don't rise and price growth doesn't slow,’ Yun explained. Properties typically stayed on the market for 39 days in April compared to 47 days in March, which is unchanged from a year ago but the shortest duration since June 2015 when it was 34 days. Short sales were on the market the longest at a median of 120 days in April, while foreclosures sold in 51 days and non-distressed homes took 37 days. Some 45% of homes sold in April were on the market for less than a month, the highest since June 2015 when it was 47%. ‘Looking ahead, with demand holding steady and supply levels still far from sufficient, the market for entry level and mid-priced homes will likely continue to be the most competitive heading into the summer months,’ Yun explained. The index show that the share of first time buyers was 32% in April, up from 30% both in March and a year ago…. Continue reading
