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New research shows the worst rates of negative equity in the US
As the housing market continues to recover in the United States, home owners who are underwater on their mortgages are increasingly concentrated in the Rust Belt, according to the latest real estate report. The data from the Negative Equity Report from real estate firm Zillow also shows that West Coast home owners are less likely to be in negative equity. Nationally, 12.7% of home owners with a mortgage were in negative equity, meaning they owed more on their mortgage than their homes were worth. However, negative equity is down from a peak level of 31.4% in the first quarter of 2012. For years, Las Vegas has been the prime example of the housing bubble and bust, with nearly three quarters of mortgaged home owners underwater when the market bottomed out in in the first quarter of 2012. But Chicago now has the highest negative equity rate among large US markets, surpassing Las Vegas in the first quarter of 2016. At its worst, Chicago had a 41.1% rate of negative equity, but its recovery has been sluggish and the negative equity rate has declined more slowly than elsewhere. As the housing market recovered, the distribution of underwater home owners across the country has shifted. In the first quarter of 2012, the West Coast, Southeast, and Rust Belt regions had a disproportionately greater share of underwater home owners. For example, the Southeast had 20.4% of homes with a mortgage, but 24.9% of homes in negative equity. Four years later, the West Coast, home to hot markets like the Bay Area, Portland, and Seattle, has only 10.2% of home owners with negative equity, but 15.2% of all mortgaged home owners. The imbalance was worst in the Rust Belt region, which includes Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, and which had an unevenly large share of underwater home owners. ‘When the housing bubble burst, the West Coast had more than its fair share of underwater homeowners. But the strong local economy and job markets have significantly helped these housing markets recover, and several are now more expensive than they were during the housing bubble,’ said Zillow chief economist Svenja Gudell. ‘Other parts of the country didn't get those same benefits, and until market fundamentals improve, home owners and buyers in these areas will be facing disproportionately higher levels of negative equity as they navigate the housing market,’ she added. The data also shows that four of the 10 metros with the highest rates of negative equity are in the Rust Belt. Meanwhile, the West Coast is home to five of the 10 metros with the lowest levels of negative equity. Continue reading
Investment in rural land in the UK seeing weakening returns
A weakened investment performance suggests that confidence in the rural land market in the UK is cooling after years of great returns. The IPD UK annual rural property index shows that total return recorded in 2015 was 5.5%, down from the 10.4% recorded in 2014. It is the most subdued return since 2008 and reflected a market cooling after several years of very robust returns in line with other investment classes. Sentiment was tempered by weakening commodity prices, and more recently by political discussions around Britain exiting the European Union. The report says that this caution around future market uncertainty was most reflected in rural land capital growth, which slowed to 4.1% in 2015 from 8.9% in 2014. This marked the lowest growth since 2008 when values depreciated. The decrease in the rate of capital growth contributed the most to the decline in the total return. The restraint in capital value growth was most pronounced in South East, where growth declined to 5.8% from 17.9% in 2014. There was also significant moderation in capital value growth across Eastern England, East Midlands, and Yorkshire and Humberside regions. Northern England and Scotland recorded the slowest value growth at 1.1%. Rural income return, however, held relatively steady at 1.3% compared to 1.4% in 2014, the figures in the annual index also show. ‘The weakened investment performance suggests confidence in the land market is cooling down after years of great returns,’ said Colm Lauder, MSCI vice president. ‘Moreover, the uncertainty created by discussion over Brexit and the potential effect of such a move on agri-food exports hit the confidence of farmers to increase rental holdings or invest further,’ he explained. He added that investors were concerned that it will be some time before there is a clear picture for the agricultural economy. MSCI also recorded a total return of 10.8% in 2015 in the IPD UK Annual Forestry Index, which marked a decline from a total return of 18.6% in 2014, the most subdued return since 2008. The index report points out that the decline is despite healthy demand for timber and wood products. However, a strengthened pound sterling versus euro and Scandinavian currencies put British wood products at a disadvantage in export markets. And it explains that British timber is heavily dependent on the exchange rate value of the pound. The significant gap between Euro and Swedish Krona denominated import prices and home grown prices denominated in the British pound narrowed significantly, which rendered Scandinavian exported sawn timber more competitive in 2015. Consequently, imports from mainland Europe rose at the expense of UK timber growers, whose timber sale returns in turn declined due to weakening saw-log prices. Subsequently the medium term run of forestry property price returns were impacted as investors and analysts made the adjustment. ‘The total return from UK Forestry of almost 11% is… Continue reading
New combined index for the whole of UK shows prices up 0.6% in April
Property prices in the UK increased by 0.6% in April month on month and by 8.2% year on year, according to the first single index for the whole of the country. It merges previous indices that were published separately for England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland taking data from the Land Registry, Registers of Scotland, Land & Property Services Northern Ireland and the Valuation Office Agency. It shows that the average price of a property in Scotland in April was £138,445, up 3.3% year on year and 1.5% month on month while in Wales prices increased by 1.7% year on year and 1.9% month on month to an average of £139,385. In England, the April data shows an annual price increase of 9.1% and a monthly rise of 0.7%, taking the average property value to £224,731 while in London prices increased by 14.5% year on year and 0.6% month on month to an average of £470,025. A breakdown of the figures show that the North West of England saw the greatest monthly growth with an increase of 2.3% and the North East saw the lowest annual price growth with an increase of 0.1% while the South West saw the most significant monthly price fall with a fall of 2.8%. The number of UK home sales continued to grow in the three months to April 2016, rising by 8.3% relative to the preceding three months although sales fell by 45.2% in April 2016 compared with March 2016. The number of completed house sales in England increased by 1.1%to 56,884 compared with 56,261 in February 2015, the number of completed house sales in Wales increased by 4.1% to 2,796 compared with 2,686 in February 2015 and the number of completed house sales in London fell by 10.5% to 6,926 compared with 7,740 in February 2015. Due to a period of two to eight weeks between completion and registration of sales in Scotland, volume figures for the most recent two months are not yet complete, so they are not included in the index report. The creation of a single index for the UK has been widely welcomed but there is still concerns that the time lag amounts to six weeks. According to Rob Weaver, director of investments at property crowdfunding platform Property Partner, on first viewing, the new single index looks like a fair representation of the market and consistent with current sentiment. But he pointed out that with transaction volumes at historic lows, the sample size for April will be smaller than normal and added that the next one will give a better indication as to whether or not this month’s referendum on the future of the UK in the European Union has affected sales and prices. But with historically low interest rates, strong employment and the continuing chronic undersupply of housing, he believes that the upward trend in prices looks set to continue later in the year. He also pointed out that one official… Continue reading
